KY, MS etc. Results Thread (user search)
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  KY, MS etc. Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: KY, MS etc. Results Thread  (Read 45487 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« on: November 05, 2019, 06:13:15 PM »
Quote from: Tintrlvr on November 05, 2019, 06:10:37 PM
Beshear definitely doing well in the earliest results. Some comparisons to 2016:

Elliott: Clinton 26%, Beshear 72% (+46)
Johnson: Clinton 13%, Beshear 40% (+27)
Laurel: Clinton 14%, Beshear 33% (+19)

Is it enough?

IIRC Kentucky has a counting advantage for Democrats in early results, so it's probably too early to draw much of a conclusion at this point beyond "Beshear will outperform Clinton."
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2019, 07:19:23 PM »
Quote from: LCameronOR on November 05, 2019, 07:18:04 PM
First VA results in. Democrats currently winning 10 senate seats, Republicans have 1.

For the House, Democrats currently winning 23, with Republicans winning 7.

Given the Republican counting bias of Virginia, I think it's safe to say Democrats will be winning by North Korea-level margins in both houses. Tongue
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2019, 07:23:51 PM »
Bevin has COLLAPSED by about 1% in the NYT count with the latest ballot dump. Now at 50.6% to Beshear's 47.3%.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2019, 07:30:16 PM »
Quote from: Insecure Clown President on November 05, 2019, 07:28:23 PM
Bevin's got this. Beshear isn't getting the numbers he needs he suburban/urban areas.

Only 27 of the 909 precincts in Jefferson and Fayette counties have reported. I don't think we can say anything definitive about urban areas yet.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2019, 07:41:23 PM »
Beshear wins Knott County.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2019, 07:45:26 PM »
Beshear wins Madison.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2019, 07:55:31 PM »
Finally some of the Jefferson results go into the NYT numbers - Bevin's lead drops from around 6.5% to 3.9% on that dump alone.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2019, 08:02:32 PM »
Beshear wins Magoffin County (eastern Kentucky).
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2019, 08:10:39 PM »
I have to say I'm feeling very good about my Beshear +0.2 prediction.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2019, 08:14:23 PM »
This is annoying. NYT has the Fayette results on their precinct map, but not in their overall vote count.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2019, 08:17:46 PM »
Currently we're at 57.6% of 2016 turnout.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2019, 08:49:14 PM »
If I'm doing my math right from the NYT results, there are about 61,286 votes left to count. Bevin trails by 12,072 votes. If he wants to win, he needs to hold Beshear to less than 40% of the remaining votes.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2019, 08:51:26 PM »
Here's my takeaway from this election: sometimes you just have to look at the polls on Wikipedia to get a sense of where the race is.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2019, 08:56:49 PM »
Quote from: Xing on November 05, 2019, 08:54:45 PM
Well, speaking as someone who really didn't think it was possible for Beshear to win, I'll eat some humble pie. I was desd wrong about this race, and I'm thrilled that (it looks like) Kentucky gave Bevin the boot. People can quote my old posts and laugh at them to their heart's content. I deserve it. Congrats to the people who predicted Beshear would win, and I'll remember this when making predictions in the future.

I eagerly await Red Eagle Politics's video on how Atlas got this election wrong. Smiley
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2019, 09:04:52 PM »
About 33,100 votes out with Bevin down 13,690 votes. If Beshear gets at least 30% of the remaining votes, he should win.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52
« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2019, 09:26:37 PM »
I will now accept my accolades:
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