KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[bilaps]

Earliest results on the NYT has Bevin up with a small number of votes from three rural counties: Elliott, Laurel and Johnson. Beshear is over 70% in Elliott County, though. Earliest results on DDHQ has Beshear up, with votes only from Floyd County.

And earliest from CNN has Beshear slightly up with 4 counties, everyone are getting votes in different way

[bilaps]

CNN has much more votes

Bevin 4519

Beshear 4,304

Also, first results from Franklin show Bevin at 29, he won 35 in 2015, but still very early

[bilaps]

Looks like Beshear won the Oldham county early vote.

By 1 vote

[bilaps]

First full county actualy has Bevin overperforming. It's Robertson county.

[bilaps]

First full county actualy has Bevin overperforming. It's Robertson county.

Who or what is he overperforming?

Himself in 2015. It's a small county with 5 precints thought. NYT and AP are late.

[bilaps]

This tiny Robertson county also had much higher turnout, Bevin in 2015 netted around 40 votes there, now 105

[bilaps]

In Taylor county Bevin leads with half vote in with 63%, in 2015 he got 61%. Doesn't look god for Democrats, they would need huuuuuge numbers from Lexington

[bilaps]

CNN has Fayette at 45%, it doesn't seem huge to me.

[bilaps]

11k lead for Bevin, CNN

[bilaps]

LOL, CNN for a moment had Bevin winning Jefferson with 100% of the vote in

[bilaps]

Bevin with 17k lead on CNN, but urban counties still out and western Kentucky still out

[bilaps]

Anderson county fully in, Bevin with 15% margin, the same like in 2015 but with almost 3k more votes cast.

[bilaps]

CNN has now changed Fayette from 45% to 5%. That's a good sign for Beshear.

[bilaps]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

It really isn’t

You can’t extrapolate the KY gubernatorial result. You just can’t. Bevin losing but all other repubs romping tells you nothing about trump/GOP, but a lot about Bevin.

I know this board is full of democrats who want to take everything as a sign that trump is on his way to a massive loss, but nothing that happened yesterday is a sign of anything.

Please explain to me how bevin’s loss is a sign for 2020.

I think it tells you nothing about Trump's own chances and maybe not even GOP's in 2020 cause Trump will be on the ballot but it tells you a lot going beyond that. Trump will exit office either in 1 or in 5 years and as an office holder he has now shown that he isn't powerful enough to elect terrible candidates like Bevin. GOP is losing suburban votes and if I say it's by an alarming pace that would be an understatement. Trump is a unique figure and I don't think that GOP wil have someone replicate him when he's not around anymore and then what?

[bilaps]

It is plausible if Trump had not gotten involved Bevin might have lost by 4-5% and the dems might have won the SOS race.

It's also plausible that if Trump had stayed away, Democrats might have been slightly less energized, and it would have only taken a small difference to give Bevin the win.  Neither assertion is provable.

Common sense is difficult to prove.