KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[Tintrlvr]

Earliest results on the NYT has Bevin up with a small number of votes from three rural counties: Elliott, Laurel and Johnson. Beshear is over 70% in Elliott County, though. Earliest results on DDHQ has Beshear up, with votes only from Floyd County.

[Tintrlvr]

Beshear definitely doing well in the earliest results. Some comparisons to 2016:

Elliott: Clinton 26%, Beshear 72% (+46)
Johnson: Clinton 13%, Beshear 40% (+27)
Laurel: Clinton 14%, Beshear 33% (+19)

Is it enough?

[Tintrlvr]

One interesting thing so far: Beshear is vastly improved from Hillary Clinton or even Obama numbers in eastern Kentucky thus far, but he's still far behind where, say, Bill Clinton was winning the state in 1996. On the other hand, Beshear is doing better in the traditionally Republican areas in south-central Kentucky than Bill Clinton ever did (for example, Bill Clinton got 28% of the vote in Laurel County in 1996). Even more of a sign that the traditional breakdowns in Kentucky are completely done.

[Tintrlvr]

Beshear is at 65% in the absentee ballots from Jefferson County.

[Tintrlvr]

First full county actualy has Bevin overperforming. It's Robertson county.

Would be a Beshear win on a uniform swing from 2016 (Robertson is Clinton 22%, Beshear 42%, so +20, Beshear needs about +17/18 statewide on 2016 to win) So who knows.

[Tintrlvr]

New York Times is really far behind in some places.

https://twitter.com/drdesrochers/status/1191862739830034432?s=20

Politico too.

Here is Lex18's results page. They're way ahead of the national outlets but don't have a county breakdown online that I can find, other than for Fayette County.

https://lex18.com/election-results

[Tintrlvr]

Beshear is at 65% in the absentee ballots from Jefferson County.

is that good?

That's really bad actually.

Yeah. I was feeling very optimistic, but this gives me some pause.

It's below targets. OTOH, it's hard to improve in places where you are already strong. I'd expect smaller swings generally in the more Democratic counties as compared to 2016 just by default compared to the counties where Trump won 70+% of the vote. We'll see.

[Tintrlvr]

Beshear is at 65% in the absentee ballots from Jefferson County.

is that good?

That's really bad actually.

Yeah. I was feeling very optimistic, but this gives me some pause.

Yeah that's less ideal. O/c it's just absentee ballots, so the same rules apply to the early vote we're seeing that's good for Beshear.

Early/absentee = same thing. Kentucky doesn't have early voting, just (very limited) absentee voting.

[Tintrlvr]

How is Virginia going?

Polls haven't closed yet. Polls close really early in Kentucky.

[Tintrlvr]

Why the hell is NYT so behind in reporting Lexington?

Only Lex18 is reporting the Lexington numbers. No one else has them yet.

[Tintrlvr]

Bath County is 100% reporting on DDHQ. Beshear wins with 52%. This was reported as potentially the bellwether county for the election, although who knows given the randomness of swings around the state and the closeness of that result.

[Tintrlvr]

Nicholas County is all in. 2015: Conway+20. 2019: Beshear +1.

For what it's worth, Conway's running mate was from a town that straddles the border of Nicholas and Bourbon counties. He way overperformed there as a result.

[Tintrlvr]

CNN has Fayette at 45%, it doesn't seem huge to me.

Their numbers are way too low to be 45% of the vote; they have only about 10,000 votes reported. Fayette cast nearly 70,000 votes in 2015, e.g. Not sure what that means. Seems unlikely Lex18 would be making up their numbers, and they have Beshear at 65% in Fayette with 87% reporting.

[Tintrlvr]

Meanwhile Lexinton's local new is outpacing the state, NYT, and DDHQ, likely becuase it's lexington reporting in.

Right, but it's hard to take too much from this because they have nearly all of Fayette reporting but very little from the rest of the state (and no county breakdowns other than for Fayette).

[Tintrlvr]

Anyway, looking only at counties that have 100% reported so far (Robertson, Nicholas, Bath and Menifee), it looks like a clear Bevin victory if you compare to 2015 but a clear Beshear victory if you compare to 2016. So hard to say where we're going. Also not super helpful that these four counties all border one another in a line, so we're not getting an especially great statewide representative sample yet.

[Tintrlvr]

Anyone know what time the polls close in LA and MS? So I know how long its worth staying up for (And give a timezone please so I can covert it to UTC lol)

Louisiana isn't voting today (they vote on the 16th). Virginia just closed at 7pm EST. Mississippi closes at 7pm CST, i.e., in 45 minutes.

[Tintrlvr]

Perry County is all in. 54% Bevin. Was 62% Bevin in 2015. That's the first rural county that would have enough swing for Beshear to win based on 2015 results instead of 2016 results.

[Tintrlvr]

Anderson county fully in, Bevin with 15% margin, the same like in 2015 but with almost 3k more votes cast.

The result CNN is reporting would mean more than 50% of the population of Anderson County (including those under 18 and those otherwise not eligible or registered) voted. I think this is an error. My guess is that they entered the result twice, so you should halve everyone's votes.

[Tintrlvr]

Beshear wins Magoffin County with 54%.

[Tintrlvr]

Franklin County's all in. Bevin's getting 36.1, he got 35.2 in 2015.

Still a net for Beshear as he improves on Conway from to 58.3 to 61.5.

Also right around the swing Beshear needs compared to 2016 results. So still very close.

[Tintrlvr]

Martin County done counting. 45% margin for Bevin. Trump's margin was 80%.

This was one of just three counties in Kentucky where Clinton won less than 10% of the vote in 2016 (Leslie and Jackson are the others). The swing to Beshear is relatively unimpressive compared to other rurals, though: just +16.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1191878044501323776

I mentioned Bourbon upthread: Conway's running mate was from there, so it should be relatively strong for Bevin this time compared to 2015.

[Tintrlvr]

Whats with some of the western counties currently with Beshear leading, isnt this the big gop rural area?

Not especially more Republican than the rest of rural Kentucky, at least these days. Some of those counties have colleges or other Democratic centers, too.

[Tintrlvr]

This Kentucky race is hurting my brain.

More so because it's taking forever to get any precincts out of the urbans.

That and the major reporting disparities between everyone

Were just getting warmed up for 2020, if you don't like tonight, wait until a year from now.

No one will care about Kentucky in 2020, though, and part of the uncertainty is how disorganized (but relatively fast) Kentucky is at reporting results.

[Tintrlvr]

CNN dumped all of the Fayette County vote now and has Beshear at 65.5% there. Still has Bevin up slightly statewide so it's Jefferson (only 36% reporting) vs. the rurals at this point.