KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[Oryxslayer]

Considering the expected volume of traffic and just general posts, I suggest we keep the official chatter to the "Bevin vs Beshear," "Jim in the Hood," and the pinned VA leg thread. this should just be for official projections and any other notable race that is outside of said states. For example I think the potentially competitive TX state house special election is an excellent election for this thread.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1191838251910340614

DDHQ is up.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/05/us/elections/results-kentucky-governor-general-election.html

NYT (finally) has their page available.

[Oryxslayer]

For those wondering, the difference  between DDHQ which has Beshear leading and NYT which has BEvin leading is the Louisville EV.

[Oryxslayer]

Meanwhile Lexinton's local new is outpacing the state, NYT, and DDHQ, likely becuase it's lexington reporting in.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jacobandrewlong/status/1191872065848131584



Remember there is a big difference in Benchmarks vs 2015. Bevin was going to do better in trump turf, and Beshear in Urban areas, which is what the models are for. So far most models tilt towards Beshear...but the urban areas may screw him if there isn't enough turnout.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1191875457932812289

This is what I mean, Beshear is outpreforming his benchmarks in the rurals (we expected more  of a Trump boost) and getting the normal dem suburban swing. The South Cincinnati suburbs and Franklin are the only (sub)urban areas are reporting seriously in, and he's doing swell there.

[Oryxslayer]

Am I really the only one who thinks Beshear is favored? For Christ's sake, he is outperforming Bevin by 5-6 in eastern KY.

Considering the margin in Bevin's favor seems to be growing, and the current dearth in these urban areas...yes.

Literally none of the major.urban areas have come in, while rurals areas keep flowing in.

Which is why Beshear not collapsing hard in the rurals is important.

[Oryxslayer]

A write in candate in Virginia is beating the democrat

Is that the district where the Republican had no choice but to run as a write-in?

Right.  Freitas (the incumbent) missed the deadline to file his paperwork to get on the ballot.

How do they know this? I thought write-in voting wasn't happening until later?

Total write ins are counted, not the words on them. If the total is sufficiently large (say 60-40) the seat will be called. If not, we wait. We have to assume that a large enough write in total will not have tons of micky mouses or misspells.

[Oryxslayer]

CNN dumped all of the Fayette County vote now and has Beshear at 65.5% there. Still has Bevin up slightly statewide so it's Jefferson (only 36% reporting) vs. the rurals at this point.

Yeah, everyone else is just missing Lexington which is why they are behind. And those rurals are all Wester, the east is done. Oh, and theres the small towns like Paducah and Bowling Green,

[Oryxslayer]

Beshear takes lead 50-48 on CNN 74% reporting

It was another 33% from Louisville.

[Oryxslayer]

So, in the meantime...what's going on in the VA House of Delegates??? I know Virginia gets more Democratic as the night goes on, but...

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1191885847467110405

State BOE has been down because of m course it is tonight, so we have been in the dark for a while.

[Oryxslayer]

Should I create a #Atlas Cool Off Thread now that KY has projection, and considering that Atlas was going crazy last weak? 

[Oryxslayer]

So does this mean McConnel can lose

No.

This was a popularity vs polarization race, and popularity won. Polarization will always win in Washington elections, except in the 1% scenarios.

[Oryxslayer]

Not sure why people don't think McConnell could lose. He's just as unpopular as Bevin is.

Federal vs. state.

The  last time unpopularity was a serious anchor federally was 2012 in Indiana and Missouri, correct? It's statistically proven that governor races see the partisan base of a state and divide it by two (down from a divider by 3 or 4) when compared to Federal elections.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1191894751844454401

[Oryxslayer]

Lets not forget that the GOP have won or are close to winning every other statewide race. Beshear got a whole bunch of crossovers and Bevin was uniquely unpopular.

[Oryxslayer]

Looking only at NYT:

8.1K  Beshear lead 22 precincts

2 in Livingston. .3K net Bevin via CNN
16 in Russel  2.5K net Bevin via CNN
1 in Barren left
3 in green left

Beshear will lead when it all comes to a close. VERY SIMILAR TO PA-18 SPECIAL.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT has 100% of precincts in KY. 4,658 Beshear vote lead. That's too big for a recount to overturn unless there is serious error. This is way too similar to the PA-18 special, that went into near recount territory as well, but the GOP declined to pursue that option.

[Oryxslayer]

Beshear is giving his victory speech now.

[Oryxslayer]

MCI maps out with his swing map. Note the heavy overpreformance in Louisville, Lexington, and the Cincinnati Suburbs.

OH AND CNN CALLS IT.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1191920551658438657

[Oryxslayer]

Assuming Jim Hood loses the governor's race, does anyone see him running for another statewide office?  Or have Republicans just slain their last white southern Democratic dragon in the state who could still mount a competitive campaign?  

The latter. He'll never be heard from again, just like Mike Moore last decade.

Couldn't he be viable in like 10 years when MS is a more competitive?

If that day arrives, it will be because of AA's increasing their share of the electorate, which may not happen because the black belt is shrinking just as much as Jackson is growing. I guess it's getting bluer because whites are also decreasing, but thats slow. When that time comes the dems will want a Stacy Abrams, not the last dixiecrat.

[Oryxslayer]

Any reason why Democrats fared better in the VA House (54-56 seats) compared to the State Senate?

2 seats flip in Senate is proportionate to 5 in House, so the results are pretty similar.

Yeah, it's just disappointing from the  dem side since there are now two State senate seats held by the GOP where the dems now hold nearly every state house seat now. Both seats were marginal  wins by the GOP, and there are two more targets where they came close. It was expected to be the 'gimmi' of the night, and while the senate was (the two D flips were beyond the MOE) it was hoped more flips would be be on their way just like how the state house was.

[Oryxslayer]

A Libertarian is beating both a D and R in the Broome County, NY DA race.

Question mark does anyone have any details on this race? Is this an actual libertarian running and making Headway? Or is this one of those scenarios where a local well-known democrat or republican has a personality Feud with another faction of the party and breaks off or is forced out to 1 as a third party?

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1191925068932288513

[Oryxslayer]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

It really isn’t

You can’t extrapolate the KY gubernatorial result. You just can’t. Bevin losing but all other repubs romping tells you nothing about trump/GOP, but a lot about Bevin.

I know this board is full of democrats who want to take everything as a sign that trump is on his way to a massive loss, but nothing that happened yesterday is a sign of anything.

Please explain to me how bevin’s loss is a sign for 2020.

I think it tells you nothing about Trump's own chances and maybe not even GOP's in 2020 cause Trump will be on the ballot but it tells you a lot going beyond that. Trump will exit office either in 1 or in 5 years and as an office holder he has now shown that he isn't powerful enough to elect terrible candidates like Bevin. GOP is losing suburban votes and if I say it's by an alarming pace that would be an understatement. Trump is a unique figure and I don't think that GOP wil have someone replicate him when he's not around anymore and then what?

No one can predict the future. I think if warren or Bernie win in 2020 and actually try to enact some of their agenda, suburbs will be a little kinder to the right GOP candidate.

FWIW, at least in KY, the downballot repubs about matched trump’s margins in the suburbs

Yes for Beshear it was standard post-trump democratic Burbstomping with the nice bonus of getting the non-Elliot rurals to give a swan song. For every other GOP'er, it was a normal Tuesday, even the closeish SOS.

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1192094122359902209