NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States

[JA]

While it's true that we must remember this poll is still a year before the actual election, which is an eternity in modern American politics, we have to acknowledge that 2020 won't be a cakewalk for the Democratic candidate and that in terms of the Electoral College, Trump has an advantage. Even if Trump's approval ratings remain in the gutter, that doesn't mean people want the Democratic candidate either; they could very well break for the evil that they know or are simply so turned off by the Democrat that they vote for whom they perceive to be the least bad option (which, for them, could be Trump).

At this point, Warren appears to be the most likely candidate to replicate Clinton's failed electoral strategy by being unable to expand beyond the Democratic base. Many voters repulsed by both major party candidates may simply vote third party again or abstain; suburban voters who are traditionally Republican may simply vote for Trump. At this point, she seems like the most likely to lose against Trump, honestly. I don't think Biden is quite prepared for how dirty Trump's campaign will be against him; they will dig up every single gaffe, questionable policy decision, and potential scandal and use it mercilessly against him, no matter how hypocritical. Biden's numbers will likely fall during the general election; that's my belief, at least. Sanders likely wouldn't move much from his current position and aside from the perceived radicalism of his policies and other already well-known issues, Trump won't have too much new material to use against him. But Sanders's base isn't likely to grow or shrink; which isn't a terribly great position to be in either. Basically, all three of the front runners are entering this race in a not-so-great position against the Republican nominee and although anything can happen, we must be prepared for a competitive race where the Democrat is disadvantaged in the electoral college.