I ran a poll of Utah before the 2016 election using Google Consumer Surveys and was surprisingly fairly close. I decided to do so again for this primary, and will run the poll again a few days before the election.
This poll should not have too much stock put into it, but should give a general idea, ie, it seems like a 4 way race.
They are fairly expensive, if I chose to put a screening question like "Are you a Democrat/Independent who plans to vote in the NH primary this year?" before the actual poll, it would have cost 10 times as much. Instead, I had one of the responses as "N/A, not a Democrat/cannot vote", and it worked pretty well. It got the largest votes ~40%, which was to be expected and suggests people are being honest. A survey size of 335 cost $50, so I got around half that in actual voters. As such, it is a fairly low sample size poll, most state polls have around twice this many.
See here for the poll as a viewer would see it:
https://imgur.com/DxTEhjDFull disclosure, I wouldn't put too much stock in these numbers, but the results surprised me.
I weighted by 6 age groups and male/female for each of the age groups, according to the electorate of the 2016 NH Democratic primary, as these are the only demographics that Google provides me.
It actually works out OK that they do not provide ethnicity, as NH is predominantly one race (93% white) and in situations like this you're not altogether going to introduce much error. See here for demographic weightings used:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/nh/demHere is a quick excel spreadsheet I threw up to calculate the weighted polling numbers:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10semu5xRZ-D6gG7J3d19asXVMnoCvh7G2RNuySOv_RI/edit?usp=sharingFeel free to use this template if you ever want to conduct a poll using Google Consumer Surveys.
I don't expect this to be too accurate, but it was a good exercise and will be helpful when I conduct another (larger sample size) poll a few days before the NH primary.
Full numbers:
Warren 27%
Buttigieg 24%
Sanders 19%
Biden 17%
Harris 6%
Klobuchar 2%
Gabbard 2%
Yang, Booker, Williamson, Delaney <1%Thoughts on this?
