Kentucky and Florida are too close to call.
Even if you're a popular Democratic Governor of a deep red state (or the other way around), you'll still struggle heavily to overcome the partisan trend in presidential elections. I just can't see Dave Freudenthal winning Wyoming, Brad Henry winning Oklahoma, Charlie Baker winning Massachusetts or Phil Scott winning Vermont. And the same goes for congressional races, just ask Ben Nelson, a guy who was reelected as Governor of Nebraska with over 70% of the vote in such a Republican year as 1994. Two years later he ran for the Senate and lost by a wide margin. Sure, he was then elected four years later to other seat, but it was narrow and Nebraska was still more open to electing Democrats.
