Which 538 impeachment scenario is most likely?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

See the full descriptions here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-7-ways-impeachment-could-shape-the-2020-election/

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

See the full descriptions here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-7-ways-impeachment-could-shape-the-2020-election/

I went with "weird mixed bag", but the next few weeks will be key in light of the public hearings firing up on Wednesday.  That being said, I doubt the needle will move all that much, but we'll see.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I.2 seems the most likely.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

See the full descriptions here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-7-ways-impeachment-could-shape-the-2020-election/

I went with "weird mixed bag", but the next few weeks will be key in light of the public hearings firing up on Wednesday.  That being said, I doubt the needle will move all that much, but we'll see.

I agree on that last point. I feel like national opinion of Trump is already locked up. If the impeachment hearings unearth all sorts of incredibly damning things, well, those are already assumed to be true, baked into his disapproval. If he's "exonerated" (a word you're going to hear 20,000 times a day in the run-up to the election), well, that's already assumed to be true, baked into his approval.

It's hard to concoct a scenario where the needle moves. Maybe if Putin blackmailed Trump over something truly awful and ordered him to withhold military aid to Ukraine? And the Biden thing was just a screen to divert attention from that? Even then he wouldn't lose support.

[emailking]

I liked this line at the end.

The nation goes to bed confused on Nov. 3, 2020, and spends the next four years wondering whether there was ever any other way things could have ended.

That's for the weird mixed bag. But I imagine we'll feel this way no matter what happens.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

All of these are way off. Donald Trump is by turns increasingly incoherent and dictatorial as impeachment and related subjects put more cracks in the Republicans of Gilead's demented fantasyland.  Something is going to break in the next year. Whether it will be Donald Trump, the Republican party, the Democratic party, or our nation, I really don't know, although I lean towards some sort of catastrophic meltdown by Donald. At the same time, I find it horrifyingly plausible that the current GOP (both politicians and ranks and file) will support a raving mental incompetent come hell or high water. If he does fall, I'm also not sold on Donald's departure automatically leading to nominee Pence, especially if it comes sooner rather than later.

Key questions to any outcome:

How long can his family, his staff, and the media keep Donald's insanity smoothed over? Although the specifics aren't clear,  he's not mentally competent and is nastily insane. At some point he won't even  be able to rant at his redhat Nuremberg rallies. Will that be soon enough to deny him the nomination? Will something leak and subject his mental health to the sort of inquiry his criminal Ukrainian conspiracy has?

How far down the path of tyranny are Republican office-holders willing to go? The GOP is far down this rabbit hole already. My personal opinion is that they'd be perfectly happy with a one-party white nationalist dictatorship, as long as they could pretend it was a democracy. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Is there any point at which Republican voters will, like schooling fish, all turn in a different direction? My personal opinion is that Republicans have gone full Jonestown, and will murder their neighbors, their children, and themselves rather than give up on "owning the libs" but hopefully I'm wrong on this, too.

Will the Democratic nominee be able to rally young and anti-Trump voters?
A significant increase in turnout among demographics that do not support Republicans or Donald Trump will lead to a GOP worst-case scenario. (If we actually have a free and fair election.)

Do any major crises that impact the general American public happen in the next year?
Probably not going to change  a lot of minds, but could lead to a small if significant shift in support, and/or expose Donald's incompetence.

[UncleSam]

Honestly I think that some of these are just delusional - President Pence is never happening, for example. I also don’t see an option for ‘Trump wins handily’, which I unironically think is a legitimate possibility should Warren be the nominee.

However, the most likely of these scenarios is probably I.2. I doubt that Republican voters will abandon generic GOP senators no matter what happens, and I think if Dems take the senate, barring a massive wave in the presidential election, it will be with 50 or 51 seats. More likely Rs hold 51 senate seats while Dems drop 5 or so seats in the house and Warren or Biden beat Trump by picking off some combination of the upper Midwest and Arizona (probably Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona).

[Orser67]

Somewhere between "Republican Civil War" and "Weird Mixed Bag"

[Del Tachi]

I.2 or III.1 seem the most likely.

[Burke Bro]

I.2 (President Pence), just because of a gut feeling. II.2 (Voters abandon Trump) is the second mostly likely option, though I think Democrats would take the senate too.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I am adamant that Trump will not be convicted by a McConnell led Senate, but that the public will move in favor towards Trump's impeachment and removal in spite of that which could negatively affect Trump and his party in 2020. Of course, there is the caveat that for such an outcome to happen, Americans will still have to care and remember about it, which might not happen.

So with that in mind; options I2. and III1., or some sort of other option in between them, seems the most likely.

[Frodo]

I'm with Silent Cal on this one -Trump is impeached, loses his allies in Congress, Mike Pence steps up to save the day for the GOP in 2020 for one last hurrah. 

[morgieb]

I'm thinking either II2 or III1. I still think it's rather unlikely Trump steps down.

EDIT: Actually I2 implies Trump doesn't stand down. I'll say that is more likely than II2.

[Person Man]

I/2 or III/3. I give this a 2:1 odds that this will happen. Maybe with 2II behind it. It's really hard to imagine that this causes a straight R sweep in 2020 and the Democrats coming back in 2024  saying "the era of globalism and multiculturalism is over" when we finally have a mild recession. It is also equally hard to believe that this basically hands Democrats 2 or 3 three trifectas and 12 years in the white house that is only ended when a Moderate Republican denounces the Nativists, Racists, and Christian Nationalists.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I.2 seems the most likely.

Agreed, with II.1 and III.3 as the next most likely possibilities.

[pbrower2a]

At this point I expect Senate Republicans to stand by their President no matter what happens in the impeachment process.  Even with all the smoking guns, most Republicans will pretend that all is well and prevent removal. If Trump does go it will be for reasons of health.

By standing up for Trump, Senate Republicans will have prevented most primary challenges -- but they will leave plenty of vulnerable Senators up for 2020 and 2022. House Democrats will have behaved themselves in a cool and logical manner, and such is what most Americans will see. But Republicans will be caught as hyper-partisans of anything.

It won;t take much for Republicans to lose the Senate majority.

[Pericles]

I think impeachment ends up on a party line vote and Trump stays in office, maybe there a few Republican defections but even that would be surprising. Still impeachment probably hurts Trump and the Republicans end up losing in 2020.