IA-Quinnipiac: Warren 20 Buttigieg 19 Sanders 17 Biden 15 Klobuchar 5 Harris 4

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac poll of Iowa, conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 5:

https://poll.qu.edu/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=3647

Warren 20%
Buttigieg 19%
Sanders 17%
Biden 15%
Klobuchar 5%
Harris 4%
Gabbard 3%
Yang 3%
Steyer 3%
Booker 1%
Castro 1%
Bennet 1%
Bullock 1%
Delaney, Williamson, Mesam, Sestak 0%

[Tender Branson]

Well-off white people with a college degree living in the suburbs really like the Pete.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, good luck figuring out what's actually going to happen here...

[Mr. Morden]

men:
Sanders 23%
Buttigieg 17%
Warren 16%
Biden 12%

women:
Warren 22%
Buttigieg 20%
Biden 16%
Sanders 12%

city:
Warren 20%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 16%
Biden 13%

suburb:
Buttigieg 23%
Warren 23%
Biden 15%
Sanders 14%

rural:
Buttigieg 21%
Biden 19%
Warren 16%
Sanders 15%

2016 Clinton caucus supporter:
Biden 27%
Buttigieg 21%
Warren 18%
Klobuchar 8%
Harris 6%
Sanders 5%

2016 Sanders caucus supporter:
Sanders 35%
Warren 23%
Buttigieg 19%
Gabbard 4%
Steyer 4%
Yang 4%

[Pollster]

If Biden continues this downward trend, he's at risk of not netting any delegates out of Iowa.

Still a bit too soon to tell if Pete and Bernie's current highs will decline like their past ones have, or if they are going to ride them to the end this time. It is certainly clear, though, that this race has taken a new and much tighter shape.

[Tender Branson]

Also:

Booker and Castro will soon call it quits ...

[Gracile]

Yikes, Harris is polling below Klobuchar.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Biden is cooked

[Rookie Yinzer]

Pete might win Iowa if he continues to remain unscathed as Biden and Warren go at it.

[Pollster]

Another interesting finding in this poll is that Warren has quite possibly hit her ceiling. Among candidates with less than 15% support, she is the second choice of only 6%. She is the second choice of 39% of Sanders voters and 28% of Pete voters, so her best bet at the moment is the race reverting back to a Biden vs. Warren head to head.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is cooked

He isnt cooked unless, Buttigieg rises and someone else wins SC...

Harris at 4%

[2016]

This is IMO Iowa 2004 all over again when we had Gephardt, Dean blasting each other allowing John Kerry and John Edwards to squeak.

If Biden & Warren continues to hit each other that might allow Buttigieg to win this.

[libertpaulian]

MAYOR PETE!

[OneJ]

Imagine Sanders vs. Buttigieg here or nationwide, lol. Buttigieg's strength is one of the things helping Bernie.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This isnt 2004, where the person that wins IA and NH, wins the primary, Latinos and Blacks support Biden; as a result, if Warren loses 1 state, NV, IA and NH, she is done . Biden has much more margin of error with SC, and he will get delegates out of IA and NH and NV

[Zaybay]

While Warren is still leading, it looks like she's in a pretty precarious position. Buttigieg and Sanders are nipping at her heels, and the caucus is starting to become anyone's game.

Team Sanders and Buttigieg are probably celebrating at these results. Both went from underdogs(Sanders was polling in the high-single digits and Buttigieg wasnt even really considered) to top competitors in the state.

Biden......I mean, its just kinda sad. If he gets 3rd or 4th in IA, it would be a huge blow to his campaign, and perhaps a blow that he cant come back from.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I agree that winning IA doesn't necessarily catapult Pete into frontrunner status, but if Biden finishes 4th, expect the Dem establishment to flock behind Pete as they shift to placing high in NH, NV, and making up some gains in SC with black voters. I could even see Pete recruiting Jaime Harrison (who is running against Lindsey Graham, is a DNC vice chair, and ran against Pete for the DNC chair in 2017.) I know Harrison's endorsement probably doesn't mean much, but any help would be welcome.

[2016]

While Warren is still leading, it looks like she's in a pretty precarious position. Buttigieg and Sanders are nipping at her heels, and the caucus is starting to become anyone's game.

Team Sanders and Buttigieg are probably celebrating at these results. Both went from underdogs(Sanders was polling in the high-single digits and Buttigieg wasnt even really considered) to top competitors in the state.

Biden......I mean, its just kinda sad. If he gets 3rd or 4th in IA, it would be a huge blow to his campaign, and perhaps a blow that he cant come back from.

We all should have listened to what David Axelrod said Post-Debate on CNN in October. He said and I quote him here "If Klobuchar or Buttigieg rises in the Polls that may very well come at the expense of Joe Biden". Axe nailed it here!

[ElectionsGuy]

Well-off white people with a college degree living in the suburbs really like the Pete.

He's got the more moderate of that group while Warren has the more liberal of them, but they both share very similar demographic support. It's why there are so many Warren and Buttigieg supporters with the other as their second choice. Even on here, I can name three people right away that have them as their top 2.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Warren and Sanders need to hit Buttigieg hard on his poll-tested positions and corporate ties on the debate stage on November 20th.

[Zaybay]

Second preferences are extremely important for the Iowa Caucus, and the picture painted isnt the best for Warren/Biden.

Second Choice from candidates who have less than 15%:

Buttigieg- 22%
Sanders- 21%
Biden- 12%
Warren- 6%

[bilaps]

While Warren is still leading, it looks like she's in a pretty precarious position. Buttigieg and Sanders are nipping at her heels, and the caucus is starting to become anyone's game.

Team Sanders and Buttigieg are probably celebrating at these results. Both went from underdogs(Sanders was polling in the high-single digits and Buttigieg wasnt even really considered) to top competitors in the state.

Biden......I mean, its just kinda sad. If he gets 3rd or 4th in IA, it would be a huge blow to his campaign, and perhaps a blow that he cant come back from.

Well, she's not leading. It's clear from recent IA polls that this is now 4way race.. Point here or there is in a margin of error and also couple or three, four points now doesn't mean too much with 3 months still to go.. My point being that you could do this poll ten times and every time you would probably get different order of top 4.

[Tintrlvr]

Well-off white people with a college degree living in the suburbs really like the Pete.

He's got the more moderate of that group while Warren has the more liberal of them, but they both share very similar demographic support. It's why there are so many Warren and Buttigieg supporters with the other as their second choice. Even on here, I can name three people right away that have them as their top 2.

I've been saying this for ages: The single largest voting bloc in the Democratic primary are swing voters between virtually all of the non-Biden/Sanders candidates (excluding the niche candidates like Yang and Gabbard). Most such voters have supported at least two of those candidates at different points in the primary, some of them three or even four different candidates and former candidates among Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, O'Rourke, Booker, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, etc. Ultimately, the winner of the primary will most likely be the candidate who consolidates those voters. Warren is probably best positioned to do so, but maybe Buttigieg will manage it. Harris, Booker and Klobuchar are probably out of the running to do so at this point. Steyer and Castro are also fishing in the same pool of voters.

[NOVA Green]

This is IMO Iowa 2004 all over again when we had Gephardt, Dean blasting each other allowing John Kerry and John Edwards to squeak.

If Biden & Warren continues to hit each other that might allow Buttigieg to win this.

Hell... remember the 1988 DEM Primaries where we had the "Seven Dwarfs"?

https://www.mentalfloss.com/quizzes/13968

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/caucus-history-past-years-results/

Iowa can be weird because you get a chance to change your vote, and if your candidate it eliminated with thresholds get to vote into the next round, etc....

Big booster of Jesse back in '88 when I was 3-4 years below voting age...

Although I wasn't living in Iowa I supported Edwards in '08 because of his economic policies and anti-war positions, and hadn't yet jumped on the Irish O'Bama train until NH.

This stuff is really fluid, but Midwest folks tend to perform well in IA on the DEM side of the House, so yeah I can see Mayor Pete doing quite well among the DEM electorate, as well as among Younger Voters, which actually represent a pretty good chunk of voters because of the expansion of education to the "Northwest" at that time as part of educational reform policies and expansion of colleges of public and private universities between 1840 and 1860....

I digress, but I suspect Iowa will continue to remain extremely fluid and interesting up until the caucuses for multiple reasons....

Still we will need to see more polls, since this does seem quite a bit higher for Mayor Pete than other polls we have seen recently....

Maybe his vote is hardening as a direct result of Biden defections, or possibly he is inheriting votes from other quarters.

Can't believe we are basically three Months away from the first votes of the 2020 Presidential Election!!!!

[Crumpets]

Personally, I'd prefer a strategic Warren-Buttigieg partnership to take down Sanders and Biden to a Warren-Sanders partnership to take down Buttigieg and Biden. I'm fine with Buttigieg winning Iowa, so long as Warren can still pull off a win in New Hampshire, which has been looking like more of an uphill battle recently.