NV-The Nevada Independent: Biden 29 Sanders 19 Warren 19 Buttigieg 7 Steyer 4

[Mr. Morden]

Dem. caucus poll of Nevada by The Mellman Group for The Nevada Independent, conducted Oct. 28 - Nov. 2:

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/poll-biden-holds-significant-lead-over-warren-sanders-in-nevada-top-issue-is-electing-someone-who-can-beat-trump
http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6539215-The-Nevada-Independent-Poll-Instrument-Nov-4-2019.html

Biden 29%
Sanders 19%
Warren 19%
Buttigieg 7%
Steyer 4%
Harris 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Yang 3%
Booker 1%
Castro 1%
Gabbard 1%
Williamson 1%
Bennet, Bullock, Delaney, O’Rourke, Sestak 0%

[Cinemark]

So close yet so far Klobuchar.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm assuming the tweet is accurate, but I can't actually connect with the Nevada Independent website atm.  I'll update when more info arrives.

[Cinemark]

I'm assuming the tweet is accurate, but I can't actually connect with the Nevada Independent website atm.  I'll update when more info arrives.

http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6539215-The-Nevada-Independent-Poll-Instrument-Nov-4-2019.html

[Eraserhead]

Pretty similar to the numbers from Emerson.

Also not too far removed from the national average.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm assuming the tweet is accurate, but I can't actually connect with the Nevada Independent website atm.  I'll update when more info arrives.

http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6539215-The-Nevada-Independent-Poll-Instrument-Nov-4-2019.html

Thanks.  I updated the OP.

[Pollster]

Among people who are strong supporters of their chosen candidate:

Biden 19
Warren 16
Sanders 15
Buttigieg 5
Steyer 3
Harris/Klobuchar/Yang 2
Castro/Gabbard/Williamson 1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I guess the surge that Buttigieg had, was short-lived, Dems have Biden

[American2020]

I'm thinking about an incredible scenario: Elizabeth Warren wins IA and NH. However Biden bounces back in NV and wins big in SC.

[swf541]

I'm thinking about an incredible scenario: Elizabeth Warren wins IA and NH. However Biden bounces back in NV and wins big in SC.

This seems pretty likely.

[Eraserhead]

I'm thinking about an incredible scenario: Elizabeth Warren wins IA and NH. However Biden bounces back in NV and wins big in SC.

Why is that incredible?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

From this full write up from the NV Indy

Those in Washoe County also tended to have a significantly more favorable view of Warren than those in Clark County, as did those who have caucused before, compared to those who hadn’t.

Haven’t read the full cross tabs, but I’m not shocked by Warren doing better in Washoe. Bits of the following post may be outdated, but the general idea is that the north part of the state is more progressive than the southern half, even the small counties.

Nevada: Change Research, Aug. 2-8, 439 LV

Biden 26
Warren 23
Sanders 22
Harris 10
Buttigieg 7
Steyer 3
O'Rourke 2
Klobuchar, Inslee, Yang, Gillibrand, Castro, Gabbard 1
others 0

I'm curious to see what a county map under such a result would look like?
I guess Clark County for Biden, and the other counties evenly distributed between Liz and Bernie according to the random principle?

Looking at 2008 and 2016, it might not be as random as you think.

Clinton 2008 & 2016
Clark (Las Vegas)
Nye
Lincoln
Mineral

Obama 2008 & Sanders 2016
Washoe (Reno)
Storey
Carson City
Pershing
Humboldt
Elko
Eureka

Split
Douglas
Lyon
Churchill (Obama 2008, tied in 2016)
Eureka
White Pine

For reference, the 2018 Governor-Dem primary. The race was not as close as the two presidential caucuses either.

Sisolak:
Clark
Nye
Lincoln
Mineral
Lander
Pershing
Churchill
Lyon
Storey
Douglas

Giunchigliani:
Washoe
Carson City
Humboldt
Elko
Eureka
White Pine

None of the above
Esmeralda

US Senate 2018-Dem and Lieutenant Gov-Dem are useless since Rosen and Marshall (respectively) didn’t really have opponents.

The 2018 US House District 1 Dem Primary was an excercise in random numbers among lots of candidates though.

Overall:

Progressive
Washoe
Carson City
Elko
Eureka
Humboldt

Progressive Tilt
Pershing
Storey

Moderate Tilt
Lyon
Douglas

Moderate
Clark
Nye
Lincoln
Mineral

Random Number Generators
Esmeralda
Churchill
White Pine
Lander

All this being said, it’s hard to predict what is currently a four and a half horse race. I would expect that the totals for Bernie+Warren vs Biden+Harris+Buttigieg would roughly line up to that ratings I’ve given.

[Mr. Morden]

From p. 77-78 of the crosstabs:

white w/ college degree:
Warren 29%
Biden 20%
Sanders 15%

white w/ no college degree:
Biden 30%
Warren 21%
Sanders 18%

Hispanic:
Biden 34%
Sanders 25%
Warren 12%

[BundouYMB]

From this full write up from the NV Indy

Those in Washoe County also tended to have a significantly more favorable view of Warren than those in Clark County, as did those who have caucused before, compared to those who hadn’t.

Haven’t read the full cross tabs, but I’m not shocked by Warren doing better in Washoe. Bits of the following post may be outdated, but the general idea is that the north part of the state is more progressive than the southern half, even the small counties.

FWIW, this held true in the 2018 gubernatorial primary. Sisolak won Clark and his more progressive challenger won Washoe.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

From this full write up from the NV Indy

Those in Washoe County also tended to have a significantly more favorable view of Warren than those in Clark County, as did those who have caucused before, compared to those who hadn’t.

Haven’t read the full cross tabs, but I’m not shocked by Warren doing better in Washoe. Bits of the following post may be outdated, but the general idea is that the north part of the state is more progressive than the southern half, even the small counties.

FWIW, this held true in the 2018 gubernatorial primary. Sisolak won Clark and his more progressive challenger won Washoe.

As best as I can read (it’s quite small and Document Cloud is terrible), here are the Clark and Washie results:

Clark
Biden 32
Sanders 19
Warren 17
Buttigieg 6
Steyer 4
Yang 4
Harris 3
Klobuchar 2
Booker 1
Gabbard 1
Williamson 1
Castro 0.5
Delaney 0.5


Washoe
Warren 26
Sanders 22
Biden 21
Buttigieg 10
Steyer 6
Harris 3
Gabbard 1
Castro 1
Sestak 1
Klobuchar 0.5

I’m shocked, I tell you! The split on the left could mean that some of the northern progressive leaning counties go Biden. If Warren stays stronger with whites, she has a good chance at carrying Washoe and other northern counties.

At this point, I’d give Biden Clark, Nye, Lincoln, Mineral, Lyon, and Douglas Counties for sure.

Warren is favored in Washoe, Elko, Eureka, and Humboldt Counties, plus Carson City.

Pershing, Storey, Esmeralda, Churchill, White Pine, and Lander are all tossups at this point.

Washoe and Clark are the only counties that had more than 200 Democratic caucus-goers in 2016, so the other counties are always subject to small number issues and random effects.

[Sir Mohamed]

Just an outlier, or did Biden indeed rebound across the board the past 1-2 weeks?

This is another horrible poll for Harris. I've lost hope she'll be the nominee.

[SnowLabrador]

Please don't be Biden.

[Kylar]

I'm thinking about an incredible scenario: Elizabeth Warren wins IA and NH. However Biden bounces back in NV and wins big in SC.

This is certainly plausible, I would think though with Reid's influence in NV-and his closet backing of Warren, she might have a legit power play to checkmate Biden here...still, you make a good point American2020 , and I look forward to seeing this all unfold with you.