IA-Quinnipiac: Warren 20 Buttigieg 19 Sanders 17 Biden 15 Klobuchar 5 Harris 4
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  IA-Quinnipiac: Warren 20 Buttigieg 19 Sanders 17 Biden 15 Klobuchar 5 Harris 4
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Author Topic: IA-Quinnipiac: Warren 20 Buttigieg 19 Sanders 17 Biden 15 Klobuchar 5 Harris 4  (Read 1695 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #25 on: November 07, 2019, 01:29:15 AM »

Remember again that this year, for the first time, the Iowa Dems are going to release both the vote count of initial preferences *and* the reallocated vote after voters switch their picks due to viability.  If it really were to end up as close to a 2-way or 3-way tie as these polls have it at the moment, that makes it all the more likely that we could actually have a split decision, where one candidate wins one of the tallies from Iowa and another candidate wins the other.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #26 on: November 07, 2019, 02:59:29 AM »

I've said it a number of times: Pete Buttigieg has a serious shot at winning IA. This would be a huge upset and change dynamics of the race. The enthusiasm for him is out there and he's exactly the kind of candidate, Dems have won elections 4 prez in recent decades.

I think Biden and Sanders will perform poorly in IA.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #27 on: November 07, 2019, 06:40:05 AM »

So... Harris literally spent half of the last month in Iowa and she's polling 1% above Gabbard who has been to it... 0 times? WTF.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #28 on: November 07, 2019, 10:51:10 PM »

Remember again that this year, for the first time, the Iowa Dems are going to release both the vote count of initial preferences *and* the reallocated vote after voters switch their picks due to viability.  If it really were to end up as close to a 2-way or 3-way tie as these polls have it at the moment, that makes it all the more likely that we could actually have a split decision, where one candidate wins one of the tallies from Iowa and another candidate wins the other.


Thanks Mr. Morden....

This slipped under my radar and is totally awesome and cool from a data mining perspective into "the obscure and mysterious world of alchemy called the Iowa Caucuses known only to the initiated priests of the order that then present the final result to the masses".

So, any idea if this will get broken down to county level results (or hopefully smaller)....  ?

* Rubs hands together and starts virtually dancing at the computer making internally extremely noisy sounds of excitement and anticipation*   Wink
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Not_A_Doctor
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« Reply #29 on: November 07, 2019, 10:55:08 PM »

Well-off white people with a college degree living in the suburbs really like the Pete.

And that's why he has no chance of winning the nomination, because well off white people with college degrees living in the suburbs are his only supporters.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #30 on: November 07, 2019, 11:10:59 PM »

Well-off white people with a college degree living in the suburbs really like the Pete.

And that's why he has no chance of winning the nomination, because well off white people with college degrees living in the suburbs are his only supporters.

This is not entirely true, he wouldn't be doing as well in Iowa if he wasn't able to make at least some in-roads with WWC Democrats.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #31 on: November 07, 2019, 11:11:52 PM »

Remember again that this year, for the first time, the Iowa Dems are going to release both the vote count of initial preferences *and* the reallocated vote after voters switch their picks due to viability.  If it really were to end up as close to a 2-way or 3-way tie as these polls have it at the moment, that makes it all the more likely that we could actually have a split decision, where one candidate wins one of the tallies from Iowa and another candidate wins the other.


Thanks Mr. Morden....

This slipped under my radar and is totally awesome and cool from a data mining perspective into "the obscure and mysterious world of alchemy called the Iowa Caucuses known only to the initiated priests of the order that then present the final result to the masses".

So, any idea if this will get broken down to county level results (or hopefully smaller)....  ?

* Rubs hands together and starts virtually dancing at the computer making internally extremely noisy sounds of excitement and anticipation*   Wink

I don't really know anything about the details beyond what the Iowa Democratic Party has announced here:

https://iowademocrats.org/iowa-democratic-party-proposes-historic-changes-2020-iowa-caucuses/

Quote
The IDP plans to release the raw totals from the first alignment, final alignment and the state delegate equivalents earned by each presidential preference group. State delegate equivalents will be used to determine the allocation of national delegates.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #32 on: November 07, 2019, 11:16:42 PM »

I think Biden still has a chance.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #33 on: November 08, 2019, 01:33:35 AM »


Sure.... I'm pretty convinced that Uncle Joe knows a thing or two about knuckledusters from his younger years.

Pretty convinced Bernie does as well, although don't believe he would be as likely to throw the first punch in a Bar Room brawl or a fight on the streets....

Would imagine that Buttigieg would practice self-defense if needed using his military training and background, although being ex-military one needs to be careful because even in self-defense military training can constitute an "assault with a deadly weapon" regardless of weapons.

Iowa Q-Poll is interesting, and although much of my post is metaphorical, I certainly cannot and will not underestimate "Uncle Joe" from being the boxer in a state where there a large % of Catholics and 14% of the population self-identifies as Irish-American.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q97IfBOIR5Q

Joe's got a story to tell, and for many younger Americans this story is forgotten simply because he is mainly remembered as Obama's VP....

Joe can get real and actually "stump it" and hopefully for him not "gaffe it" and potentially recover.

This race in Iowa is fluid, and naturally Uncle Joe can't afford to place 3rd or 4th in IA, and likely get a curbstomping in NH, before SC rolls around.

Biden isn't running particularly well in the West, so NV will likely be a shut-out, especially now that the "Reid Machine" is split up and divided.

Meanwhile EV's in Cali are going to be continually cast in real time before any results are posted, based upon how the Cali DEM voters assess the race in real time....

Butt-Load of delegates on the line in Cali, and maybe Biden is planning on busting a nut in the South Lands on Super Tuesday, but Joe had to come out swinging before it comes too late without looking like a bully....



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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #34 on: November 08, 2019, 04:39:58 AM »

This is proportional voting, it's not a winner take all, Warren is favored in 3/4 of the early states, but the primary will continue with Super Tuesday.  Biden isnt going anywhere, since he is favored in South and TX has just as many delegates as Cali.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #35 on: November 08, 2019, 06:38:35 AM »

Biden isn't running particularly well in the West, so NV will likely be a shut-out, especially now that the "Reid Machine" is split up and divided.

I thought the Reid machine was behind Warren?
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Cinemark
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« Reply #36 on: November 08, 2019, 07:50:37 AM »

Biden isn't running particularly well in the West, so NV will likely be a shut-out, especially now that the "Reid Machine" is split up and divided.

I thought the Reid machine was behind Warren?

Its not behind anyone right now. Reid just really likes Warren. But Reid is also a moderate who doesn't support Medicare for all.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #37 on: November 08, 2019, 08:16:34 AM »

Well-off white people with a college degree living in the suburbs really like the Pete.

He's got the more moderate of that group while Warren has the more liberal of them, but they both share very similar demographic support. It's why there are so many Warren and Buttigieg supporters with the other as their second choice. Even on here, I can name three people right away that have them as their top 2.

I'd name Warren and Buttigieg as my top two candidates right now too, although this has also a lot to do with me thinking that Biden and Sanders are way too old and also past their political prime. Biden in particular isn't really the representation of change and a new beginning, with his 45 years in federal politics and three presidential runs. Sanders could get another heart attack at any time and he's the losing candidate if the last primaries. Any other candidate besides these four is a non-factor.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #38 on: November 08, 2019, 08:40:57 AM »


Atlas tends to overestimate how informed voters are.  I think a lot of people who don't know much about the other candidates are going to vote for Biden because he seems like a safe choice.  I could be completely wrong about this though.
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Shadows
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« Reply #39 on: November 12, 2019, 09:12:48 AM »

2nd Choice among voters with candidates less than 15% -

Pete - 22%, Sanders 21%, Biden 12%, Warren 6%. 19% of the vote gets divided.

The final tally after adding 2nd Choice becomes -

Pete 23%
Sanders 21%
Warren 21%
Biden 17%

Pete is actually leading this poll considering 2nd Choice Among the candidates except Top 4 & Warren is No. 3

One such question asked likely caucusgoers how excited they are about supporting their candidate. This is important because obviously the more excited somebody is about his or her candidate, the more likely that person is going to stick with that candidate and not have a change of heart between now and Feb. 3. Sanders and Buttigieg did best: 81 percent of Sanders supporters said they are “extremely” or “very” excited about him, while 70 percent of Buttigieg supporters said the same. Trailing them, 64 percent of Biden supporters said they are “extremely” or “very” excited about him; 59 percent of Warren supporters said the same of her.

The survey respondents also were asked which candidate was their second choice. This is a critical question at the caucuses, because if a candidate doesn’t meet the minimum threshhold of support in the first round of voting, his or her supporters will be free to move to a different candidate who is viable. The threshhold to be considered viable is 15 percent. Quinnipiac totaled the second-choice selections of all the candidates who did not reach 15 percent in the poll, and Buttigieg (22 percent) and Sanders (21 percent) were easily the most popular.


https://poll.qu.edu/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=3647
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Shadows
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« Reply #40 on: November 12, 2019, 09:20:08 AM »

Also Mind-Made up -

Biden 48%, Sanders 61%, Warren 44%, Pete 40%

Considering Mind-Made up only - Bernie 10.4%, Warren 8.8%, Pete 7.6%, Biden 7.2%

Pete's number of 2nd Choice among Biden, Warren & Sanders supporters are amazing. He has a legitimate chance of winning Iowa, even much more than Warren.
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