IA-Quinnipiac: Warren 20 Buttigieg 19 Sanders 17 Biden 15 Klobuchar 5 Harris 4 (user search)
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  IA-Quinnipiac: Warren 20 Buttigieg 19 Sanders 17 Biden 15 Klobuchar 5 Harris 4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-Quinnipiac: Warren 20 Buttigieg 19 Sanders 17 Biden 15 Klobuchar 5 Harris 4  (Read 1757 times)
Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
United States


« on: November 06, 2019, 03:03:05 PM »

Quinnipiac poll of Iowa, conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 5:

https://poll.qu.edu/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=3647

Warren 20%
Buttigieg 19%
Sanders 17%
Biden 15%
Klobuchar 5%
Harris 4%
Gabbard 3%
Yang 3%
Steyer 3%
Booker 1%
Castro 1%
Bennet 1%
Bullock 1%
Delaney, Williamson, Mesam, Sestak 0%
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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
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Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2019, 03:10:05 PM »

men:
Sanders 23%
Buttigieg 17%
Warren 16%
Biden 12%

women:
Warren 22%
Buttigieg 20%
Biden 16%
Sanders 12%

city:
Warren 20%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 16%
Biden 13%

suburb:
Buttigieg 23%
Warren 23%
Biden 15%
Sanders 14%

rural:
Buttigieg 21%
Biden 19%
Warren 16%
Sanders 15%

2016 Clinton caucus supporter:
Biden 27%
Buttigieg 21%
Warren 18%
Klobuchar 8%
Harris 6%
Sanders 5%

2016 Sanders caucus supporter:
Sanders 35%
Warren 23%
Buttigieg 19%
Gabbard 4%
Steyer 4%
Yang 4%
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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
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Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2019, 01:29:15 AM »

Remember again that this year, for the first time, the Iowa Dems are going to release both the vote count of initial preferences *and* the reallocated vote after voters switch their picks due to viability.  If it really were to end up as close to a 2-way or 3-way tie as these polls have it at the moment, that makes it all the more likely that we could actually have a split decision, where one candidate wins one of the tallies from Iowa and another candidate wins the other.
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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2019, 11:11:52 PM »

Remember again that this year, for the first time, the Iowa Dems are going to release both the vote count of initial preferences *and* the reallocated vote after voters switch their picks due to viability.  If it really were to end up as close to a 2-way or 3-way tie as these polls have it at the moment, that makes it all the more likely that we could actually have a split decision, where one candidate wins one of the tallies from Iowa and another candidate wins the other.


Thanks Mr. Morden....

This slipped under my radar and is totally awesome and cool from a data mining perspective into "the obscure and mysterious world of alchemy called the Iowa Caucuses known only to the initiated priests of the order that then present the final result to the masses".

So, any idea if this will get broken down to county level results (or hopefully smaller)....  ?

* Rubs hands together and starts virtually dancing at the computer making internally extremely noisy sounds of excitement and anticipation*   Wink

I don't really know anything about the details beyond what the Iowa Democratic Party has announced here:

https://iowademocrats.org/iowa-democratic-party-proposes-historic-changes-2020-iowa-caucuses/

Quote
The IDP plans to release the raw totals from the first alignment, final alignment and the state delegate equivalents earned by each presidential preference group. State delegate equivalents will be used to determine the allocation of national delegates.
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