IA-Quinnipiac: Warren 20 Buttigieg 19 Sanders 17 Biden 15 Klobuchar 5 Harris 4

[NOVA Green]

This is IMO Iowa 2004 all over again when we had Gephardt, Dean blasting each other allowing John Kerry and John Edwards to squeak.

If Biden & Warren continues to hit each other that might allow Buttigieg to win this.

Hell... remember the 1988 DEM Primaries where we had the "Seven Dwarfs"?

https://www.mentalfloss.com/quizzes/13968

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/caucus-history-past-years-results/

Iowa can be weird because you get a chance to change your vote, and if your candidate it eliminated with thresholds get to vote into the next round, etc....

Big booster of Jesse back in '88 when I was 3-4 years below voting age...

Although I wasn't living in Iowa I supported Edwards in '08 because of his economic policies and anti-war positions, and hadn't yet jumped on the Irish O'Bama train until NH.

This stuff is really fluid, but Midwest folks tend to perform well in IA on the DEM side of the House, so yeah I can see Mayor Pete doing quite well among the DEM electorate, as well as among Younger Voters, which actually represent a pretty good chunk of voters because of the expansion of education to the "Northwest" at that time as part of educational reform policies and expansion of colleges of public and private universities between 1840 and 1860....

I digress, but I suspect Iowa will continue to remain extremely fluid and interesting up until the caucuses for multiple reasons....

Still we will need to see more polls, since this does seem quite a bit higher for Mayor Pete than other polls we have seen recently....

Maybe his vote is hardening as a direct result of Biden defections, or possibly he is inheriting votes from other quarters.

Can't believe we are basically three Months away from the first votes of the 2020 Presidential Election!!!!

[NOVA Green]

Remember again that this year, for the first time, the Iowa Dems are going to release both the vote count of initial preferences *and* the reallocated vote after voters switch their picks due to viability.  If it really were to end up as close to a 2-way or 3-way tie as these polls have it at the moment, that makes it all the more likely that we could actually have a split decision, where one candidate wins one of the tallies from Iowa and another candidate wins the other.

Thanks Mr. Morden....

This slipped under my radar and is totally awesome and cool from a data mining perspective into "the obscure and mysterious world of alchemy called the Iowa Caucuses known only to the initiated priests of the order that then present the final result to the masses".

So, any idea if this will get broken down to county level results (or hopefully smaller)....  ?

* Rubs hands together and starts virtually dancing at the computer making internally extremely noisy sounds of excitement and anticipation*   

[NOVA Green]

I think Biden still has a chance.

Sure.... I'm pretty convinced that Uncle Joe knows a thing or two about knuckledusters from his younger years.

Pretty convinced Bernie does as well, although don't believe he would be as likely to throw the first punch in a Bar Room brawl or a fight on the streets....

Would imagine that Buttigieg would practice self-defense if needed using his military training and background, although being ex-military one needs to be careful because even in self-defense military training can constitute an "assault with a deadly weapon" regardless of weapons.

Iowa Q-Poll is interesting, and although much of my post is metaphorical, I certainly cannot and will not underestimate "Uncle Joe" from being the boxer in a state where there a large % of Catholics and 14% of the population self-identifies as Irish-American.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q97IfBOIR5Q

Joe's got a story to tell, and for many younger Americans this story is forgotten simply because he is mainly remembered as Obama's VP....

Joe can get real and actually "stump it" and hopefully for him not "gaffe it" and potentially recover.

This race in Iowa is fluid, and naturally Uncle Joe can't afford to place 3rd or 4th in IA, and likely get a curbstomping in NH, before SC rolls around.

Biden isn't running particularly well in the West, so NV will likely be a shut-out, especially now that the "Reid Machine" is split up and divided.

Meanwhile EV's in Cali are going to be continually cast in real time before any results are posted, based upon how the Cali DEM voters assess the race in real time....

Butt-Load of delegates on the line in Cali, and maybe Biden is planning on busting a nut in the South Lands on Super Tuesday, but Joe had to come out swinging before it comes too late without looking like a bully....