Democratic primary: President Biden declined to support any candidate. Vice President Stacey Abrams has massive support in the South, Governor Gretchen Whitmer has support in Midwest
Average poll. National (possible before Iowa)
Gretchen Whitmer ~ 25%
Stacey Abrams ~ 25%
Roy Cooper 15%
Tammy Duckworth 12%
AOC 10%
Others 13% Gretchen Whitmer wins Iowa, New Hampshire. Stacey Abrams wins Nevada and South Carolina. Gretchen Whitmer wins nomination in close race between her and VP Abrams. She chooses Abrams as her VP.
Republican primaryAfter Trump lost in 2020, Republicans become more moderate and anti-Trump
Fmr. VP Mike Pence wins Iowa, Larry Hogan drops out and endorsed Baker, who wins NH after that. Nikki Haley wins South Carolina. Charlie Baker wins NV
Charlie Baker wins close primary between him, Nikki Haley and Mike Pence. He chooses Nikki Haley as his running mate
General electionGov. Charlie Baker (R-MA)/Fmr. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC) ~278 EVs; 50,4% PVGov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/VP Stacey Abrams (D-GA) ~260 EVs; 48,5% PV
Note. If GOP doesn't nominate Baker/Hogan/Haley, then Whitmer or Abrams will win the election