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December 09, 2019, 09:26:28 pm
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  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Why is Louisiana never competetive?
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Author Topic: Why is Louisiana never competetive?  (Read 567 times)
coolface1572
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« on: November 06, 2019, 10:33:58 pm »
« edited: November 06, 2019, 11:16:51 pm by coolface1572 »

Louisiana is one of those states that historically has usually gone steadily to their candidate, regardless of party.

I get it was solid dem during the Jim Crow era and is solid red today, but even many of the other deep south states were really competitive in 1980 or 1992.
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President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2019, 10:03:14 am »
« Edited: November 07, 2019, 10:16:50 am by President Griffin »

LA has the second-lowest percentage of whites who vote Democratic in presidential elections of any state in the country, according to exit polls/calculations from 2008, 2012 & 2016. It also has the highest percentage of incarcerated or otherwise disenfranchised adults of any state - which in Deep South terms obviously means it is hyper-targeted toward the exclusion of black citizens from civic participation. Arguably this massive reduction in black participation relative to their share of the population is the only thing that has helped keep a less-than-insignificant segment of whites in LA from voting straight-R up and down the ballot (otherwise, JBE, Landrieu, Dem registration advantage and so forth would be non-existent and/or distant memories for 20 years or more).

When white voters are nearly as Republican as black voters are Democratic and the former outnumbers the latter by 2-to-1 in actual registration, you end up with a state that isn't competitive at all in presidential contests - i.e. the types of contests where pro-civil rights candidates are likely to have the most impact and deviation from the local culture.

Prior to the modern era, it's obvious that voter participation was skewed toward heavily white and rural constituencies in the South, both of which were firmly in the Democratic column then. When this dynamic/coalition began to deteriorate, it deteriorated rapidly. This quick D-to-R transition among the most stalwart voting blocs helped create the inelastic and noncompetitive environment present in many Southern states in presidential elections. LA obviously had some quirks that created a longer time-frame for such that allowed select (i.e. Southern) Democratic presidential candidates to win, but that time has long since passed.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2019, 01:49:09 pm »

It's a little surprising that Louisiana has become almost as polarized as Mississippi, considering that Louisiana has a place as cosmopolitan as NOLA.  If the New Orleans city limits were removed from the state, would Louisiana whites even be more right-wing than Mississippi whites?
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2019, 03:02:28 pm »

It's a little surprising that Louisiana has become almost as polarized as Mississippi, considering that Louisiana has a place as cosmopolitan as NOLA.  If the New Orleans city limits were removed from the state, would Louisiana whites even be more right-wing than Mississippi whites?

Well, Mississippi is more black 37.8 to 32.7 than Louisiana, so not really.  Without doing any math, I'd guess Louisiana without NOLA would be less than 30% black.  North Louisiana is basically West Mississippi though.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2019, 06:44:48 pm »
« Edited: November 08, 2019, 08:22:25 pm by TDAS04 »

Fun fact:  From 1944 through 1980, Louisiana never voted for the same party twice in a row.
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coolface1572
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« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2019, 10:45:59 pm »

Fun fact:  From 1944 through 1980, Louisiana never voted for the same party twice in a row.

This is more what I was looking for with this question. It changed parties so much but was never really within the "battleground" range.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2019, 10:56:25 pm »

Fun fact:  From 1944 through 1980, Louisiana never voted for the same party twice in a row.
1944: FDR
1948: Thurmond
1952: Stevenson
1956: Eisenhower
1960: Kennedy
1964: Goldwater
1968: Wallace
1972: Nixon
1976: Carter
1980: Reagan

While itís technically true that they never voted for the same party twice in a row, one should keep in mind that without Thurmondís and Wallaceís third-party candidacies, they might have voted for the same party in 1944-1952, 1964-1968, and/or 1968-1972.
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Pericles
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2019, 06:36:26 am »

In 1976 and 1980 it seems semi competitive, being decided by 5-6 points in both elections. Reagan's 1980 win in particular was less in LA than nationwide. In 1992 Clinton won it by around the same margin that he won nationwide.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2019, 12:31:50 am »

It was kind of close in 80
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2019, 07:05:57 am »

Louisiana was Dukakis's best Southern state.

Louisiana went 51-40 for Clinton in 1996.

As late as 2004, Louisiana had two (2) Democratic Senators.  As late as 2008, Louisiana elected Mary Landrieu to the Senate.

Until the Obama Administration, Louisiana's Cajuns were an elastic voting group.  They are now as inelastic as Louisiana's white Protestants due to the Democratic Party's elevating support of abortion on demand and opposition to Fossil Fuels to be "litmus test" issues for Democrats.  This is why Louisiana is presently uncompetitive, and why it will continue to be.
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