Can Joe Biden increase black turnout in the general?

[AGA]

As you know, the black turnout is crucial for the Democrats in states like WI, MI, PA, VA, NC, and GA. Clinton could not turnout black voters like Obama did and is arguably why she lost. Could you see Biden doing better than Clinton in this regard or would he do about the same?

[°Leprechaun]

Turnout overall is a big question. Republicans could have big turnout. I hope that somehow Democrats can, as well.
The young people (Democrats), have to get excited about defeating Trump, and scared of what happens should get Trump get a second term.

As for the question of the thread, I think that it is possible that black turnout could improve, it is certainly an important question. I am not sure whether to be optimistic of victory at this point. It could be a very close election. That is how I see it.

[Senator-elect Spark]

As you know, the black turnout is crucial for the Democrats in states like WI, MI, PA, VA, NC, and GA. Clinton could not turnout black voters like Obama did and is arguably why she lost. Could you see Biden doing better than Clinton in this regard or would he do about the same?

No. Let's dispel this notion. Biden is no Obama and what Biden did in the 1990s won't help him. Trump may actually peel off a few more percentage points.

[Podgy the Bear]

I think that it's obvious from what happened in VA and NC.  Overall turnout was tremendous.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yes. Donald Trump should be scared, very scared.

[W]

From 2016? Yes. From 2012 and 2008? No.

[LostFellow]

I don't know why people think Biden will increase black turnout, considering that Hilary did better than Biden with Black voters. And where black turnout will matter the most for the EC are in the urban cores of the midwest, which, if polls are to be believed, Biden does worse with than he does in the south. But regardless, primary voting patterns don't have a direct causation with general election voting patterns unless there is a large undercurrent that already exists. (See Trump 2016 WWC primary trends that did translate to general election trends, but that's because the shift in voting had already in place since 2010)

[T'Chenka]

From 2016? Yes. From 2012 and 2008? No.

[Redban]

Biden might have a shot because of the Obama connection (though it's worth noting that Hillary had a strong rapport with blacks too; she beat Obama among blacks in many states in 2008 in fact).

But remember that Trump is expected to do a little better with blacks this time. He has a lot of good stats to cite, like their lowest unemployment rates. And his people have set up campaign offices in black districts specifically to increase his percentage with blacks.

[AGA]

As you know, the black turnout is crucial for the Democrats in states like WI, MI, PA, VA, NC, and GA. Clinton could not turnout black voters like Obama did and is arguably why she lost. Could you see Biden doing better than Clinton in this regard or would he do about the same?

No. Let's dispel this notion. Biden is no Obama and what Biden did in the 1990s won't help him. Trump may actually peel off a few more percentage points.

Of course he mostly likely won't match Obama's numbers. The question is can he at least do better than Clinton?

[SN2903]

No. He's an 80 year old white dude. He doesn't connect with them.

[Hammy]

No. He's an 80 year old white dude. He doesn't connect with them.

He has the highest approval among blacks of any recent Dem (outside of Obama), so I'm not sure where you get this. I don't understand why his support among blacks is so high, but the fact remains that it is.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

From 2016? Yes. From 2012 and 2008? No.

[Cyrusman]

I don't know why people think Biden will increase black turnout, considering that Hilary did better than Biden with Black voters. And where black turnout will matter the most for the EC are in the urban cores of the midwest, which, if polls are to be believed, Biden does worse with than he does in the south. But regardless, primary voting patterns don't have a direct causation with general election voting patterns unless there is a large undercurrent that already exists. (See Trump 2016 WWC primary trends that did translate to general election trends, but that's because the shift in voting had already in place since 2010)

So far was Hillary overperformed Biden?

[LostFellow]

I don't know why people think Biden will increase black turnout, considering that Hilary did better than Biden with Black voters. And where black turnout will matter the most for the EC are in the urban cores of the midwest, which, if polls are to be believed, Biden does worse with than he does in the south. But regardless, primary voting patterns don't have a direct causation with general election voting patterns unless there is a large undercurrent that already exists. (See Trump 2016 WWC primary trends that did translate to general election trends, but that's because the shift in voting had already in place since 2010)

So far was Hillary overperformed Biden?

From the 2016 Democratic primary exit polls, Clinton won 80+% of the Black vote in the south. Biden has been getting ~60%+, so he obviously is doing well, but not to the level of Hillary.

[here2view]

It will be more than 2016 but less than 2012.

[Xing]

Depends on the kind of campaign he runs. One thing to remember is that a big reason why Clinton didn't do as well as expected among black voters is that younger black voters didn't support her as strongly as Obama. Looking at the primary numbers, I do think there is a similar danger for Biden.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

No. He's an 80 year old white dude. He doesn't connect with them.

He has the highest approval among blacks of any recent Dem (outside of Obama), so I'm not sure where you get this. I don't understand why his support among blacks is so high, but the fact remains that it is.

There is little indication he has much more than an incremental advantage among blacks over Hillary at this same point.

[Illini Moderate]

I don't know why people think Biden will increase black turnout, considering that Hilary did better than Biden with Black voters. And where black turnout will matter the most for the EC are in the urban cores of the midwest, which, if polls are to be believed, Biden does worse with than he does in the south. But regardless, primary voting patterns don't have a direct causation with general election voting patterns unless there is a large undercurrent that already exists. (See Trump 2016 WWC primary trends that did translate to general election trends, but that's because the shift in voting had already in place since 2010)

So far was Hillary overperformed Biden?

From the 2016 Democratic primary exit polls, Clinton won 80+% of the Black vote in the south. Biden has been getting ~60%+, so he obviously is doing well, but not to the level of Hillary.

There were more candidates. . .

[We Live in Black and White]

No more than Clinton increased it.