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December 15, 2019, 09:39:56 pm
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  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Kutasoff Hedzoff, Apocrypha)
  2000: John Mccain vs Al Gore
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Author Topic: 2000: John Mccain vs Al Gore  (Read 463 times)
coolface1572
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« on: November 07, 2019, 08:27:42 pm »

How would John Mccain have done against Al Gore in 2000?
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connally68
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2019, 10:17:43 pm »

McCain wins.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2019, 11:22:49 pm »

Gore picks up some southern states but McCain picks up some non south Gore states
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2019, 02:37:54 am »



McCain/Danforth 313 50%
Gore/Lieberman 225 47%
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538Electoral
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« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2019, 07:21:13 pm »

OSR's map with Iowa and WV also going McCain.
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UWS
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2019, 05:54:06 pm »
« Edited: November 12, 2019, 06:13:33 pm by UWS »

OSR's map with Iowa and WV also going McCain.

Indeed. It was mostly because of Gore’s positions on the environment that he has been unable to appeal coal miners due to the large coal industry in West Virginia that Gore’s positions.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

And also I would put New York between in the 40s or 50s of points of percentage for Gore rather than 60 as a Quinnipiac poll showed McCain trailing Gore in New York by just 1 and showed McCain beating Bill Bradley in NY by 5 percentage points due to McCain being more moderate than Bush 43.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York#Polling_3
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swamiG
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2019, 06:49:41 pm »

I don't think McCain's campaign would have targeted WV anywhere near as aggressively as Karl Rove did for W. It would stay Dem at least this time around.

I have McCain winning 279 electoral votes, with a few different states and margins than in 2000 IRL. As for the popular vote, I think Gore still narrowly wins it and the election hinges on MO, with McCain winning it by a razor thin margin of about 0.13% like in 2008.

Would have been a very interesting election, I think Gore might have ended up picking someone other than Lieberman this time around with McCain likely picking Mike DeWine for VP.



McCain would have likely been a more competent war leader during 9/11 and its aftermath and would have had an easy time winning re-election against Howard Dean, winning 348 electoral votes.


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Spark
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2019, 07:40:46 pm »



Vice President Albert A. Gore Jr. (D-TN) / Representative Richard Gephardt (D-MO) - 329 EVs, 50%
Senator John S. McCain III (R-AZ) / Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (I-CT) - 209 EVs, 47%
Others - 0 EVs, 3%

McCain would almost have certainly lost, he was a poor campaigner. Gore would have been more comfortable pinning himself to Clinton. He wouldn't have targeted WV that heavily and the South would not have transitioned over to the GOP as heavily as with Bush. Evangelicals would stay with Gore, and McCain would do well with hispanics and suburban voters winning NV, VA, and CO.
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swamiG
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2019, 07:58:58 pm »



Vice President Albert A. Gore Jr. (D-TN) / Representative Richard Gephardt (D-MO) - 329 EVs, 50%
Senator John S. McCain III (R-AZ) / Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (I-CT) - 209 EVs, 47%
Others - 0 EVs, 3%

McCain would almost have certainly lost, he was a poor campaigner. Gore would have been more comfortable pinning himself to Clinton. He wouldn't have targeted WV that heavily and the South would not have transitioned over to the GOP as heavily as with Bush. Evangelicals would stay with Gore, and McCain would do well with hispanics and suburban voters winning NV, VA, and CO.

I could see this happening, especially what you said about Gore doing significantly better in the South. But Lieberman was still a Democrat at the time and would not have joined the McCain ticket, even if given the opportunity.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #9 on: November 14, 2019, 02:18:14 pm »

McCain, easily. In 2000, he had serious cross-party appeal, a lot of it based off of his support for campaign finance reform; he was basically seen as a moderate in the vein of Clinton, but for the Republicans, & had pretty substantial "maverick" credentials. This also provided him with substantial support from independents. The economy was good overall in 2000, but it was already showing signs of weakening with the dot-com crash earlier in the year, which is what Gore himself has blamed his defeat on (but also, in any event, Gore wasn't that good of a campaigner, & the general view of the time was that people were tired of the Democrats being in the White House, as the scandal fatigue was a real thing). And if Bush could only just barely defeat Gore, then I think McCain has a very strong chance of narrowly winning both the electoral vote & the popular vote (let alone potentially doing so in a landslide). Not only that, but Bush was actually a weak general election candidate: during the debates, he forgot Social Security was a federal program, not to mention the DUI scandal that broke in the weeks before the election.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #10 on: November 14, 2019, 10:21:23 pm »

I don't think McCain's campaign would have targeted WV anywhere near as aggressively as Karl Rove did for W. It would stay Dem at least this time around.

I have McCain winning 279 electoral votes, with a few different states and margins than in 2000 IRL. As for the popular vote, I think Gore still narrowly wins it and the election hinges on MO, with McCain winning it by a razor thin margin of about 0.13% like in 2008.

Would have been a very interesting election, I think Gore might have ended up picking someone other than Lieberman this time around with McCain likely picking Mike DeWine for VP.



McCain would have likely been a more competent war leader during 9/11 and its aftermath and would have had an easy time winning re-election against Howard Dean, winning 348 electoral votes.




0.13 percent sounds like a landslide compared to Florida

Btw this is post 3000
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2019, 07:17:54 am »

McCain probably would have won both the Electoral College and popular vote but it would be super close

It might look like this



Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Rep. John Kasich (R-OH) 48.2% 276 EV
Vice President Al Gore (D-TN) / Senator Bob Graham (D-FL) 48.1% 262 EV

Gore barely wins Florida due to his pick of Bob Graham as his running mate - but McCain/Kasich scrapes together close wins in Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Oregon to win a very close election.
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