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December 11, 2019, 06:08:14 am
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  Sri Lanka Presidential election (November 16)
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Author Topic: Sri Lanka Presidential election (November 16)  (Read 784 times)
jaichind
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« on: November 08, 2019, 07:47:23 am »
« edited: November 16, 2019, 05:28:06 pm by Anatole Deibler »

Will be Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, brother of ex-Prez Mahinda Rajapaksa, of SLPP backed by SLPF alliance vs Sajith Premadasa of UNP as a part of the NDF alliance.  

SLPP is really a Rajapaksa clan splinter of SLFP but now SLFP is part of the SLPF alliance.  UNP leader and PM Ranil Wickremesinghe really wanted to run but Sajith Premadasa came in to take the nomination.  With UNP looking like it might be divided and SLFP not running current president Maithripala Sirisena it seems Gotabhaya Rajapaksa is more likely to win.

Gotabhaya Rajapaksa will try to consolidate the Sinhalese with the support of Buddhist-Sinhalese nationalist groups while Sajith Premadasa will need to get a large Tamil and Muslim turnout to try to blunt the Buddhist-Sinhalese surge for Gotabhaya Rajapaksa.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2019, 09:14:56 am »

The winner must achieved 50%+1.  There will be ranked voting where the voter can vote for 3 candidates in rank.  If no candidate wins 50%+1 then the second and third preference votes will be used.

The candidate most likely to come in third would be leftist JVP's Dissanayaka.  JVP had been allies of SLFP and done deals with Rajapaksain clan the past but this time they have a clear anti-Rajapaksa position.  So for Gotabhaya Rajapaksa to win most likely he will have to win 50% or near 50% in the first round before counting preference votes. 

Fortunately for him the UNP is fairly divided where Sajith Premadasa pretty much said that he is elected he will most likely try to swap out UNP leader and current PM Ranil Wickremesinghe.  The fact is the 2015 Maithripala Sirisena-Ranil Wickremesinghe alliance that defeated Mahinda Rajapaksa is now seen as a complete failure and a joke.  By taking this position Sajith Premadasa is hoping to run as an outsider candidate and not be associated with the current failed regime.  The problem there is that he is pretty much splitting UNP to do it.  All this points to a likely win by Gotabhaya Rajapaksa and the return of the Rajapaksa clan.

Mahinda Rajapaksa's plan was always to win 2015 and then have one of his brothers take over from him after that. So other than the 2015-2019 snag where he unexpectedly lost in 2015 things now look again back on schedule for Mahinda Rajapaksa.
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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2019, 10:34:35 am »

The UNP candidate Sajith Premadasa is the son of former UNP President Ranasinghe Premadasa who was assassinated in 1993 by LTTE.  Frankly Ranasinghe Premadasa's record was not that great but his assassination sort of whitewashed his record somewhat.  One way or another this is sort of a trump card for  Sajith Premadasa since the fact his father was assassinated by LTTE means he is partially immune from the charge that he is biased in favor of the Tamil minority.  The Gotabhaya Rajapaksa campaign, of course, will focus on both the Muslim threat as well as the Tamil threat in light of the April bombings.
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jaichind
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« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2019, 07:31:08 am »

If seems if Gotabhaya Rajapaksa wins as expected, then SLPP-SLPF will most likely win next year's parliamentary elections which would put ex-Prez  Mahinda Rajapaksa who is barred from running to become PM and another brother Chamal Rajapaksa will become Speaker of the Parliament, a role he had in the 2010-2015 period.
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jaichind
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« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2019, 07:25:39 am »

Voting done.  Turnout seems to be right below 80% which is slightly below the 2015 turnout of 81.52% which should be bad news for Gotabhaya Rajapaksa.  On the other hand anti-Gotabhaya Rajapaksa  Colombo turnout fall seems to be higher than other pro-Gotabhaya Rajapaksa areas.  Tamil areas in the North turnout seems to have increased but most likely cannot make up for the turnout fall of Colombo.
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jaichind
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2019, 04:42:39 pm »
« Edited: November 16, 2019, 05:36:38 pm by jaichind »

Galle postal result out. Gotabya Rajapaksa 67.5% Sajith Premadasa 24.5%   If this is representative then a big swing toward Rajapaksa. Back in 2015 it was Mahinda Rajapaksa 55.6% Maithripala Sirisena 43.4%  

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PSOL
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2019, 05:18:59 pm »

Muslim voters were attacked in trying to make it to the polls. Safe to say that Sri Lanka is going into very depressing times over the next couple of years.
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jaichind
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« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2019, 05:27:16 pm »

So far it is

Gotabaya Rajapaksa(SLPP)          56.41%
Sajith Premadasa(UNP)               36.18%
Anura Kumara Dissanayaka (JVP)   4.95%

Is mostly postal results.  It seems that as expected there is significant polarization from 2015 with Rajapaksa getting a large swing in Sinhalese-Buddhist areas but losing ground from 2015 in Tamil-Muslim areas.  If these are the trends then Gotabaya Rajapaks got this.
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2019, 05:39:05 pm »

The postal vote swings toward Rajapaksa from overall 2015 results in Sinhalese areas are massive.  They are mostly in the 10%-20% range.
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jaichind
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« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2019, 05:48:25 pm »

Sinhalese area Ambalangoda district all results in

Gotabaya Rajapaksa            65.78%
Sajith Premadasa                28.19%
Anura Kumara Dissanayaka    3.93%

Back in 2015

Mahinda Rajapaksa            55.15%
Maithripala Sirisena            43.93%

Swings of 10%+ confirmed in a Sinhalese area.  If replicated elsewhere Gotabaya Rajapaksa will have an easy win even if there is a Tamil-Muslim swing against him relative to 2015.
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2019, 05:50:54 pm »
« Edited: November 17, 2019, 02:12:29 pm by jaichind »

In heavy Tamil area of Kayts in Jaffna

Sajith Premadasa            69.82%
Gotabaya Rajapaksa        17.99%
Ariyawansha Dissanayake  2.36%

Back in 2015 it was

Mahinda Rajapaksa           40.60%
Maithripala Sirisena           55.48%

Massive swing away from Gotabaya Rajapaksa in Tamil areas.  But this is a good trade for him.
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jaichind
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« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2019, 06:34:49 pm »

If I have to guess now I think Gotabhaya Rajapaksa will end up with around 51%-52% overall
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jaichind
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« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2019, 06:44:52 pm »

Galle which is a major urban area came in.  It is in Sinhalese area in the South  but is fairly urban and is a proxy for how Columbo might swing.

Sajith Premadasa                46.89%
Gotabaya Rajapaksa            46.68%
Anura Kumara Dissanayaka    4.57%

Back in 2015 it was

Maithripala Sirisena             62.58%
Mahinda Rajapaksa             36.69%

So even in an urban but Sinhalese  there is a swing of around 10% toward Gotabaya Rajapaksa even if it has an anti-Gotabaya Rajapaksa lean.
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jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2019, 08:34:36 pm »

Tamil heavy Jaffna is all done.  Big swing away from Gotabaya Rajapaksa

Sajith Premadasa               83.86% 
Gotabaya Rajapaksa             6.24%

Back in 2015 it was

Maithripala Sirisena             74.42%
Mahinda Rajapaksa             21.85%
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jaichind
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« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2019, 09:29:21 pm »

Around 10% of the vote counted with a very heavy Tamil count lean

Sajith Premadasa                 49.53%
Gotabaya Rajapaksa             43.08%
Anura Kumara Dissanayaka    3.35%

For Gotabaya Rajapaksa to win he realistically have to get to around 49% or so since most of the second and third preference votes of the other candidates will be against him.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2019, 10:10:04 pm »

Gotabaya (47.34%) overtakes Premadasa (45.92%)

Sinhalese South Coast has made up for the huge advantage that Premadasa had among the Jaffna Tamils. Colombo/Kandy will be decisive.
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jaichind
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« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2019, 10:12:48 pm »

About 17% of the vote counted with still a large Tamil area lean

Gotabaya Rajapaksa             47.11%
Sajith Premadasa                 46.16%
Anura Kumara Dissanayaka    3.31%

Gotabaya Rajapaksa back in the lead which I suspect he will keep unless a bunch of Tamil regions left vote all surges in.
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jaichind
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« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2019, 10:18:42 pm »

For Sajith Premadasa to hope to contain Gotabaya Rajapaksa to 49% or less he will need to over-perform in Columbo.  That is his last hope left of winning.


Note http://election.adaderana.lk/#_ is the link to results
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jaichind
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« Reply #18 on: November 16, 2019, 10:29:51 pm »

The Tamil and Muslim heavy districts of Jaffna, Vanni, and Trincomalee are all in and it is still

Gotabaya Rajapaksa             47.77%
Sajith Premadasa                 45.67%
Anura Kumara Dissanayaka     3.28%

The only other big Tamil-Muslim area left is Batticaloa.  After that it would depend on anti-Gotabaya Rajapaksa  Sinhalese vote to stop Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
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jaichind
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« Reply #19 on: November 16, 2019, 10:33:57 pm »

It seems in Central Sinhalese areas the swing toward Gotabaya Rajapaksa is a more moderate 3%-4%.  Still enough to get him the victory as long as the larger Southern swings holds and Columbo behaves correctly.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2019, 10:47:02 pm »

Gotabaya has claimed victory apparently.
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jaichind
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« Reply #21 on: November 17, 2019, 07:28:02 am »

All votes came in

Gotabaya Rajapaksa             52.25%
Sajith Premadasa                 41.99%
Anura Kumara Dissanayaka     3.16%

I was mostly right that Gotabaya Rajapaksa would end up with around 51%-52% of the vote based on early results.  It seems that Sajith Premadasa  failed to get a strong vote in Colombo as he has hoped.

The results are pretty simple: Significant swings against Gotabaya Rajapaksa in Tamil areas, small swings against Gotabaya Rajapaksa in Muslim areas (most likely because  Sinhalese living in those areas swung hard in favor of  Gotabaya Rajapaksa which made up for a Muslim swing against  Gotabaya Rajapaksa), mostly flat in deep urban areas like Columbo, but semi-urban, suburban and rural Sinhalese areas swung hard in favor of  Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Back in 2010 and 2015 with Rajapaksa clan in charge there were parts of the Tamil votes aligned with Rajapaksa clan.  This time the Rajapaksa clan are out of power so the Tamils are more free to vote without influence of the current ruling regime.  Of course that was nowhere close to enough as as significant swing of Sinhalese  gave Gotabaya Rajapaksa a comfortable victory.
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jaichind
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« Reply #22 on: November 17, 2019, 08:32:13 am »

Turnout ended up being a record 83.72% beating the 2015 turnout of 81.52% which makes the Gotabaya Rajapaksa victory even more impressive since his victory took place despite same or higher turnout by the anti-Rajapaksa clan bloc relative to 2015.
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jaichind
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« Reply #23 on: November 17, 2019, 09:16:50 am »
« Edited: November 17, 2019, 11:10:48 am by jaichind »

These results were foretold by the 2018 local elections.  If you group vote share in the 2018 local elections they map to 2019 Prez elections pretty well:

SLPP+UPFA(which is SLFP led)                 52.57%
UNF(UNP led)+Tamil and Muslim parties   37.57%
JVP                                                         5.75%

So this Prez election is about some JVP tactical voting for Sajith Premadasa and some anti-Rajapaksa elements within SLFP that went over to Sajith Premadasa.  Other then that Gotabaya Rajapaksa's job was to hold the SLPP+UPFA(SLFP) vote which he mostly did.
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jaichind
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« Reply #24 on: November 17, 2019, 11:04:33 am »

A victory by Gotabhaya Rajapaksa based purely on the Sinhalese vote with almost no Tamil support has caused significant consternation in the Indian TN Tamil nationalist parties.   Both MDMK (part of the UPA alliance) and PMK (part of the NDA alliance) have expressed gave concerns about such a result and are now indicating that India should support the creation of an independent Tamil homeland on Sri Lanka (which was the goal of LTTE).
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