NYT/Siena: Biden leads in AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA. Warren leads in WI

[Comrade Funk]

[American2020]

The scenario I described would not be surprising. Biden may be short in Iowa, lost New Hampshire, but Would bounce back in western states like Nevada and be too strong in the South, in South Carolina firstly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will be the nominee 😎 It doesn't matter about  IA and NH, they dont represent the nation anymore, at large, ethnic states with large ethnic groups represent the country

[Cinemark]

Not surprising, but Biden has to do well enough in the first four contests for these results to be relevant.

[RI]

Buttigieg's support seems lower here than in other polls. Bad education weighting in most polls may be propping up his campaign...

[Cinemark]

Buttigieg's support seems lower here than in other polls. Bad education weighting in most polls may be propping up his campaign...

He's only averaging 7% nationally so these results dont look too off.

Also, just because Sienna is weighing education heavily doesn't mean other pollsters are wrong.

[Sir Mohamed]

Solid, but not overwhelming for Biden. He needs to well in IA and NH though to retain his frontrunner status. Warren on the other hand needs to do well beyond these 2 states. Buttigieg has an uphill climb, especially the South, but dynamics can change once he'll win IA or come in 2nd.

[RI]

Buttigieg's support seems lower here than in other polls. Bad education weighting in most polls may be propping up his campaign...

He's only averaging 7% nationally so these results dont look too off.

Also, just because Sienna is weighing education heavily doesn't mean other pollsters are wrong.

I trust Cohn's methodology way more than most pollsters.

[Cinemark]

Buttigieg's support seems lower here than in other polls. Bad education weighting in most polls may be propping up his campaign...

He's only averaging 7% nationally so these results dont look too off.

Also, just because Sienna is weighing education heavily doesn't mean other pollsters are wrong.

I trust Cohn's methodology way more than most pollsters.

They're certainly a good pollster, but it seems short sighted to think pollsters haven't adjusted their methods since 2016.

[Crumpets]

I'm not going to say that leading in a bunch of state polls is bad for Biden, but I think a winning Biden campaign would be polling a little bit better than 28% in Pennsylvania.

[SnowLabrador]

It boggles my mind how people think Biden would have the best chance of beating Trump.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Not surprising, but Biden has to do well enough in the first four contests for these results to be relevant.

This. Nobody is even campaigning outside of the first four early states that heavily. Why would Biden be down when in many states when he's still far and above the only well known figure?

[Eraserhead]

Pretty small sample sizes.

[RI]

Buttigieg's support seems lower here than in other polls. Bad education weighting in most polls may be propping up his campaign...

He's only averaging 7% nationally so these results dont look too off.

Also, just because Sienna is weighing education heavily doesn't mean other pollsters are wrong.

I trust Cohn's methodology way more than most pollsters.

They're certainly a good pollster, but it seems short sighted to think pollsters haven't adjusted their methods since 2016.

It's extremely evident most haven't or at least haven't done so correctly.

[Cinemark]

Buttigieg's support seems lower here than in other polls. Bad education weighting in most polls may be propping up his campaign...

He's only averaging 7% nationally so these results dont look too off.

Also, just because Sienna is weighing education heavily doesn't mean other pollsters are wrong.

I trust Cohn's methodology way more than most pollsters.

They're certainly a good pollster, but it seems short sighted to think pollsters haven't adjusted their methods since 2016.

It's extremely evident most haven't or at least haven't done so correctly.

How so? 2018 polling was pretty good all things considered.

[SN2903]

Warren stronger in Wisconsin than Michigan because of African American vote

[ON Progressive]

Those sample sizes seem pretty damn small.

[Xing]

Those sample sizes seem pretty damn small.

I thought so too, and the percentage of undecided voters is telling.

[Pollster]

Multiple other posters beat me to it...sample sizes here are WAY too small for serious analysis. In some of these states we are looking at close to 7% margin of error. Cohn should know better.

[Sorenroy]

Buttigieg's support seems lower here than in other polls. Bad education weighting in most polls may be propping up his campaign...

I think the bigger story in these polls is Harris struggling to meet even 1%. Small sample sizes are an issue, but if you're pulling a max of 3%, more likely 1, you need a higher MoE then these polls give to get into delegate range.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Those sample sizes seem pretty damn small.

I thought so too, and the percentage of undecided voters is telling.

Most of these polls reaffirmed the polls that were done earlier on these states; as a result, Biden can win IA and OH. The KY Gov race changed things, Appalachia is in play.

[ProudModerate2]

Those sample sizes seem pretty damn small.

True.
But the gap between Biden and Warren in most of those polls cannot be easily excused/ignored.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren's numbers look bad, if she want to win NV, CO and CA, she has to improve on the Latino support

[MT Treasurer]

Small sample sizes, but no one should be surprised by Biden leading decisively in states where the Democratic primary electorate isn’t 90% white.

[President Johnson]

Samples are too small and undecideds too high. But it wouldn't surprise me if Uncle Joe wins these states he's ahead in these polls. He actually has to win them (maybe except of Michigan).