More likely to be a Senator: AOC or Pressley?

[Torrain]

I haven't been following MA that much. Do people really think Pressley is the favourite to get Warren's seat if the latter becomes president?

I would have thought AOC's star power would make her a very strong candidate in a primary and that NY is too Dem to not elect a Dem for a senate seat even if it's one that isn't a great fit.

I'm definitely in the Senator Pressley camp. I'd wager Warren and Markey are both likely to leave the Senate in the next 15 years, sooner if Warren wins, or Markey gets primaried out.

The three leading lights in MA politics seem to be AG Maura Healey, Rep Pressley and Rep Kennedy. My money would be on Healey running for Governor, while Pressley and Kennedy take the Senate seats.

AOC would have to fight the NYC Democratic machine, and win a primary against a yet-undetermined establishment candidate with the financial backing to run a statewide campaign. NY senators are typically partially reliant on Wall Street for funds, and I don't see those guys letting AOC walk into a Senate seat without a serious fight. She might yet do it, but the road is a lot easier for Pressley.

[Gustaf]

I haven't been following MA that much. Do people really think Pressley is the favourite to get Warren's seat if the latter becomes president?

I would have thought AOC's star power would make her a very strong candidate in a primary and that NY is too Dem to not elect a Dem for a senate seat even if it's one that isn't a great fit.

I'm definitely in the Senator Pressley camp. I'd wager Warren and Markey are both likely to leave the Senate in the next 15 years, sooner if Warren wins, or Markey gets primaried out.

The three leading lights in MA politics seem to be AG Maura Healey, Rep Pressley and Rep Kennedy. My money would be on Healey running for Governor, while Pressley and Kennedy take the Senate seats.

AOC would have to fight the NYC Democratic machine, and win a primary against a yet-undetermined establishment candidate with the financial backing to run a statewide campaign. NY senators are typically partially reliant on Wall Street for funds, and I don't see those guys letting AOC walk into a Senate seat without a serious fight. She might yet do it, but the road is a lot easier for Pressley.

I mean that's fair and I'm not saying I think AOC is more likely just that I'd think it closer than many people here.

1. If Kennedy knocks out Markey now as he well might he'll probably keep that seat forever. If Warren doesn't get the nomination Pressley is probably shut out for a considerable time. And if the seat goes to someone else if Warren is nominated it also seems like she'd have a tough time getting that.

2. I understand there would be a fight for a New York seat but it's not like AOC would have any trouble getting donations for a senate campaign to be viable. And I'm not convinced how enthused New York Democratic primary voters would be about some establishment corporate candidate.

[Torrain]

I haven't been following MA that much. Do people really think Pressley is the favourite to get Warren's seat if the latter becomes president?

I would have thought AOC's star power would make her a very strong candidate in a primary and that NY is too Dem to not elect a Dem for a senate seat even if it's one that isn't a great fit.

I'm definitely in the Senator Pressley camp. I'd wager Warren and Markey are both likely to leave the Senate in the next 15 years, sooner if Warren wins, or Markey gets primaried out.

The three leading lights in MA politics seem to be AG Maura Healey, Rep Pressley and Rep Kennedy. My money would be on Healey running for Governor, while Pressley and Kennedy take the Senate seats.

AOC would have to fight the NYC Democratic machine, and win a primary against a yet-undetermined establishment candidate with the financial backing to run a statewide campaign. NY senators are typically partially reliant on Wall Street for funds, and I don't see those guys letting AOC walk into a Senate seat without a serious fight. She might yet do it, but the road is a lot easier for Pressley.

I mean that's fair and I'm not saying I think AOC is more likely just that I'd think it closer than many people here.

1. If Kennedy knocks out Markey now as he well might he'll probably keep that seat forever. If Warren doesn't get the nomination Pressley is probably shut out for a considerable time. And if the seat goes to someone else if Warren is nominated it also seems like she'd have a tough time getting that.

2. I understand there would be a fight for a New York seat but it's not like AOC would have any trouble getting donations for a senate campaign to be viable. And I'm not convinced how enthused New York Democratic primary voters would be about some establishment corporate candidate.

That's all totally fair.

I get the feeling that everyone in Massachusets politics is trying to plan two moves ahead, but at the end of the day, they're all just making guesses and gambles, like us.

[ElectionsGuy]

Pressley. I think she'll run for the special election if Warren becomes President, VP (somehow), or a cabinet official if Trump is defeated.