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December 14, 2019, 11:05:47 am
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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Kutasoff Hedzoff, Apocrypha)
  2012 GOP primaries if Trump ran
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Author Topic: 2012 GOP primaries if Trump ran  (Read 266 times)
darklordoftech
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« on: November 10, 2019, 03:44:07 am »

Would Trump win any states? Would he be a spoiler in any states?
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TheOnlyOne234
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2019, 07:47:46 pm »

Dont forget he was ahead in GOP polls before he decided not to run. Most likely he wouldnt have won the nomination because the anti government sentiment wasnt high enough but he would have been a strong force. I think santorum suffers the most with trump making a strong play in the south but Romney just had to strong of a lock to lose the nomination.
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2019, 07:25:16 pm »

Dont forget he was ahead in GOP polls before he decided not to run. Most likely he wouldnt have won the nomination because the anti government sentiment wasnt high enough but he would have been a strong force. I think santorum suffers the most with trump making a strong play in the south but Romney just had to strong of a lock to lose the nomination.

Citation needed.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2019, 09:26:01 pm »

Possibly a spoiler but probably not win any states
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2019, 11:30:53 am »

He'd likely get defeated by Romney, as the GOP just wasn't as radicalized yet as it would later become, though it's likely that he'd weaken Romney going into the general, which could very well force him to tack to the right on immigration. With Trump thoroughly delegitimized, though, a more moderate candidate would likely win in 2016 (i.e. Bush, Walker, Rubio, Kasich), & that's if Trump even chooses to run again.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2019, 01:53:15 pm »

Dont forget he was ahead in GOP polls before he decided not to run. Most likely he wouldnt have won the nomination because the anti government sentiment wasnt high enough but he would have been a strong force. I think santorum suffers the most with trump making a strong play in the south but Romney just had to strong of a lock to lose the nomination.

Citation needed.

I once heard Trump that saying and thought he was making it up of course, but it's actually true. He was ahead in some national polls in April and May 2011: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#2011_polls

More specifically: https://web.archive.org/web/20170522101225/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0414925.pdf
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RGM2609
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2019, 02:10:02 pm »

Probably loses to Romney, but Romney will lose in the general at an even bigger margin due to Trump's candidacy weakening him (Obama wins NC and comes close in other states). After Romney gets humiliated, the party will be more open to Trump and he will be a frontrunner in 2016 from the start.
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