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December 10, 2019, 02:38:10 am
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  5 most likely people to become the 47th POTUS?
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Author Topic: 5 most likely people to become the 47th POTUS?  (Read 317 times)
Laki
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« on: November 10, 2019, 02:42:58 pm »

Earliest election possible 2024, latest election possible if Trump wins 2nd term and the 46th is also a 2 term president 2032.

I think Trump's gonna lose narrowly in 2020, and that Biden becomes the nominee but doesn't run for re-election.

GOP:
1. Ron DeSantis
2. Rick Scott
3. Ted Cruz
4. Cory Gardner
5. Rand Paul

DEM:
1. Gretchen Whitmer
2. Pete Buttigieg
3. Cory Booker
4. Kamala Harris
5. Ayanna Pressley
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Orser67
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2019, 11:22:41 pm »

Republicans: Pence, Haley, Cotton, Cruz, DeSantis
Democrats: Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, Abrams, Tammy Duckworth
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2019, 07:12:08 am »

Interesting question.

Nikki Haley: Well-positioned to run following a Democratic President.
Ron DeSantis: Popular Trump-friendly Governor of large swing state. He can run for a few cycles. He might pull the old trick of losing a nomination that isn't worthwhile, and getting nominated the next time around as the also-ran. He would also benefit from any Republican backlash to perceived identity politics.
Tammy Duckworth: Plausible Vice President for Biden. Could run in her own right in 2024.
Cedric Richmond: On paper, he seems like a plausible Warren running mate (younger black man from Louisiana who is part of the House leadership and an ally of Biden.)
Mike Pence: Even if Trump loses, he'll be a top-tier contender in 2024, when we may have an open election or someone with questionable electoral prospects running for a second term.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2019, 02:34:46 am »

1. Julian Castro (after serving two terms as Warren's VP)
2. Ron DeSantis (beating sitting VP Castro in 2028)
3. Pete Buttigieg (winning in 2028 after popular Cabinet work in the Warren Administration)
4. Donald Trump (after beating sitting POTUS Warren in 2024)
5. Elizabeth Warren (after beating sitting POTUS Pence in 2020)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2019, 06:09:36 pm »

I actually think Kamala Harris is pretty high on the list, if not #1.

My reasoning is this: Predicting elections as far out as 2024 or later is tough.  But we might actually get a 47th president earlier than that, because one scenario that seems like it's not all that unlikely is that Biden is elected president next year, but then resigns for health reasons before the end of his first term (he will turn 80 in his first term after all).  Since I think Harris is the odds on favorite to be his running mate (at the very least, it seems all but certain that he'll pick a woman, and I think Harris would be the top of the list), she could potentially become 47th president even before Election Day 2024.

Or she could be Biden's veep and Biden lasts his whole first term but doesn't run for a second, setting up Harris 2024.  Or some other scenario that leads to her being #47.  Unlike Biden, Sanders, and Warren, she's young enough that she could run in any number of future presidential elections.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2019, 01:47:10 pm »

One thought experiment is the odds the 47th President is a member of a particular body.

If Trump is unable to finish his term, Pence is pretty likely to be the next President (or he'll be swapped out Spiro Agnew style, so another Republican will get it.) This means the 47th President would be whoever follows the Vice President. This includes the possibility of Trump winning reelection but still leaving office early.
Odds are good it'll be a Democrat, as voters will eventually get tired of Republicans in the White House. (I'm guessing odds of this scenario are 8%)

There remains a small chance of three Republicans in a row. (2%)

If Trump loses reelection, the 46th President is almost certainly a Democrat. The next question is whether their successor is a Democrat, which is likelier than usual given the age of the field. (25%)

But it's also possible that whoever defeats Trump will be followed by a Republican, someone who defeats them in 2024, defeats their successor in an open election in 2024 or defeats their successor in 2028. (20%)

If Trump stays in office until January 2029, there are a few possibilities.
A Republican wins and is followed by a Republican, which can also happen with 46's resignation/ premature departure. (6%)
A Republican wins and is followed by a Democrat. (12%)
A Democrat wins and is followed by a Republican. (17%)
A Democrat wins and is followed by a Democrat. (10%)

I'm pulling the numbers out of my ass, but I've got the odds the 47th President will be a Democrat at just under 50 percent.

I had more Republicans in my top five, but that's more because the Vice President and two rising stars in their 40s can dominate the rest of the field. The 47th POTUS might not win the presidential election under 2032, and that could very well be a Democrat who is currently completely unknown.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2019, 01:59:36 pm »

Newsom 2024
Kennedy 2028

Cruz, Rubio 2024, Cotton 2028
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