2019 LA Gov Guesses Post EV and Nov 5th Races

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just thought it would be a good idea to have a new clean poll on this after all that stuff lol. I have changed my mind to Edwards edging it out, but dependent on what I see on election day itself, I may very well change my mind again. Same Parish margins within the scale as last time.

Also mods, if this is in the wrong area, plz move it, thx.

[Lechasseur]

JBE will win

I think he'll win by somewhere between 2 and 4 points.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I still give it to Rispone by <1%. 

[Skill and Chance]

JBE by 4.  52/48

GOP denied a supermajority in the lower house thanks to a flip in the BR/NOLA suburbs.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I previously thought that Rispone would win by maybe two points, but I am revising my prediction to Edwards winning by about three points. Something like this:

Edwards 51.5 Rispone 48.5

Side note: Rispone has very creepy, soulless eyes. As someone with similarly soulless brown eyes, I couldn't help but notice this.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I previously thought that Rispone would win by maybe two points, but I am revising my prediction to Edwards winning by about three points. Something like this:

Edwards 51.5 Rispone 48.5

Side note: Rispone has very creepy, soulless eyes. As someone with similarly soulless brown eyes, I couldn't help but notice this.

Same

[Xing]

I really have no idea at this point. I guess for now I'll modify my prediction to 50.5-49.5 in favor of Edwards, but maybe I'm still reading too much into the EV.

[Gone to Carolina]

JBE by 3-4 or so would be my guess atm. Would be nice to get a Mason-Dixon poll though.

[MT Treasurer]

55% Rispone (R)
45% JBE (D)

It’s an incredibly inelastic Trump +20 state, not seeing this with record polarization and impeachment backlash and also 2018 was a D+9 year.

Serious prediction: JBE 51/49

[jamestroll]

55% Rispone (R)
45% JBE (D)

It’s an incredibly inelastic Trump +20 state, not seeing this with record polarization and impeachment backlash and also 2018 was a D+9 year.

Serious prediction: JBE 51/49

Uh.. no..

The other way around is more likely.

I think it will be 52.5% Edwards

[Lechasseur]

55% Rispone (R)
45% JBE (D)

It’s an incredibly inelastic Trump +20 state, not seeing this with record polarization and impeachment backlash and also 2018 was a D+9 year.

Serious prediction: JBE 51/49

Uh.. no..

The other way around is more likely.

I think it will be 52.5% Edwards

Yeah if Rispone wins it will be by a very narrow margin, at most 2 points imo.

If anyone wins by more than that it's JBE.

Yeah I basically agree, I think JBE gets about 52% of the vote.

[Tender Branson]

54.4% Edwards (D-Incumbent)
45.6% Rispone (R)

[😥]

53.9% Edwards (D-Incumbent)
46.1% Rispone (R)

[Mr. Smith]

1.4 point win. No longer sure whether Rispone or Edwards, but would say Rispone if knife is at my throat.

[Senator-elect Spark]

JBE by 4.  52/48

GOP denied a supermajority in the lower house thanks to a flip in the BR/NOLA suburbs.

Something like this.

Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), inc.: 52%
Eddie Rispone (R): 48%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Changed my mind again, Rispone by 1-2 pts. I may change my mind again. Can do so till polls close lol. Parish margins are the same within the scale, heck u can just flip the percent and numbers lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Changed my mind again, Rispone by 1-2 pts. I may change my mind again. Can do so till polls close lol. Parish margins are the same within the scale, heck u can just flip the percent and numbers lol.

Why, you said Bevin was gonna win and he didnt, this is a Dem yr, not R yr

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Changed my mind again, Rispone by 1-2 pts. I may change my mind again. Can do so till polls close lol. Parish margins are the same within the scale, heck u can just flip the percent and numbers lol.

Why, you said Bevin was gonna win and he didnt, this is a Dem yr, not R yr

Pmasta convinced me to change my mind. Besides, I was super confident in Bevin winning, this I am not confident about either way, it is super tight how I see it and I may well change my mind again. Besides, there is less connection between gov races, and ky was a fairly special scenario, considering most any other republican would have won, and the GOP picked up the SOS and AG.

[We Live in Black and White]

The EV makes it extremely likely that Edwards prevails. For a more precise guess, I'll wager his margin of victory falls somewhere between 3%-5%.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The EV makes it extremely likely that Edwards prevails. For a more precise guess, I'll wager his margin of victory falls somewhere between 3%-5%.

Plz be true. If it holds well enough, then I agree. I am just concerned about two things. One possible GOP surge on election day, two, possible cannibalizing of the vote, where people are just voting earlier.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I'll predict that JBE wins 51-49.

[JMT]

I still think Rispone wins by about 1 point:

Rispone (R): 50.5%
Edwards (D): 49.5%

I too thought Bevin would win, so perhaps I'm wrong here. But, KY had a unique situation where Bevin was extremely unpopular, and even then, Beshear won by less than 0.5%. Edwards' popularity will keep the margin close, but given how conservative LA is and that Rispone isn't as unpopular as Bevin, I think Rispone will very narrowly win the race.

I do, however, hope my prediction is wrong. I want to see JBE win again!

[Skill and Chance]

Adjusting to JBE +2.5.  Still think the EV was enough for JBE but the polling was dead on in the primary and it consistently shows a closer race.  Basically a repeat of Landrieu vs. Terrell 2002.  

Regarding the State House, I still think the Dems flip at least one of the NOLA/EBR seats, which would be sufficient to deny a supermajority regardless of what happens in the 2 rural districts.

Bonus: JBE carries LA-01 by a hair.

[Yellowhammer]

Edwards +1

[Lisa's voting Biden]

JBE - 51%
Rispone - 48%