2019 LA Gov Guesses Post EV and Nov 5th Races

[Bidenworth2020]

Rispone +2

[Progressive Pessimist]

Don't know who will win, but 95% sure, that both candidates will get 48+ percentages of vote (and about 75% - that both will get at least 49%). But the fact, that C-rate Republican candidate in Louisiana has such good chances against popular (and, thanks God - not "progressive") incumbent Democratic governor, says volumes. Present day Democratic party is viscerally and profoundly hated by vast majority of Southern whites...

My interest in this race has faded a bit since Beshear's win. I was always going to be content if Democrats managed to win one of the three of this year's gubernatorial elections. And they did! So I can sort of take or leave this one. But it is f***ed up if pure partisanship ousts a decent Governor. So that sentiment is almost unfair for me to say to the people of Louisiana. Kentucky managed to see through that though, albeit very marginally, so this race certainly can't be written off either.

I'll probably check out the results later tonight and either feel elated that Edwards pulled off a win, and Democrats managed to go two for three this year. Or I will be resigned to the fact that outside of a truly unpopular incumbent running for re-election and losing under very specific circumstances, some states are just out of reach for Democrats at the state level.

[Donerail]

JBE by nine

go big or go home cowards

[libertpaulian]

I maintain my earlier prediction.

JBE: 50.5%
Rispone: 49.5%

[Canis]

Current estimate based off the maths
Eddie rispone 50.45
JBE 49.65 Prob will edit and update as the night goes on

[TWTown]

JBE wins. 51%-49%

Looking good so far.

[One Term Floridian]

Let’s just all agree Mason-Dixon handily won this year’s gubernatorial polling. Just about spot on for all three races.

[Adam Griffin]

With 1.5m voters:

JBE 51.3%
Rispone 48.7%

Kakow!

[We Live in Black and White]

I overshot substantially, but at least I got the winner right.

[Xing]

Well, at least two of my predictions were within two points of the actual result.

With 1.5m voters:

JBE 51.3%
Rispone 48.7%

Kakow!

Holy cow, nicely done!

[libertpaulian]

I have a feeling that this will be like Obama 2012. It's a close election, the state's economy is still on shaky ground, the incumbent won't win as bigly as he did the first time around, but enough voters still trust the incumbent to stay in office as the recovery continues because they remember of the political party of the predecessor who caused the disaster.

This aged well!

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

This is my final LA runoff prediction now. My confidence in this race is very low.

JBE +2

51 Edwards - Rispone 49

Not bad....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, the GOP wants to ride with Trump, they will get slaughtered in 2020. We wont add anymore Govs, but the Red state GOP Senators are in trouble.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I previously thought that Rispone would win by maybe two points, but I am revising my prediction to Edwards winning by about three points. Something like this:

Edwards 51.5 Rispone 48.5

Side note: Rispone has very creepy, soulless eyes. As someone with similarly soulless brown eyes, I couldn't help but notice this.

Okay, one more alteration:

Edwards 50.5 Rispone 49.5

I don't know what to think with this race anymore so I'm going to go with a cautious prediction too, albeit still an Edwards favoring one.

P.S. Rispone's eyes are still blacker than Michael Meyers'.

Dammit! I should have stuck with my previous prediction. I was almost right on the money, but my pessimism took over! Either way, I'll still be more than happy to eat crow again. I've grown a taste for it...even if it's for different reasons this time. I at least was leaning towards Edwards winning post-Beshear after all.

[Tender Branson]

My FINAL prediction:

51.3% John Bel Edwards (D-Inc.)
48.7% Edward Lee Rispone (R)

Turnout: 1.52 million votes (+/- 0.1 million)

Awesome.

Turnout was 1.51 million.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My FINAL prediction:

51.3% John Bel Edwards (D-Inc.)
48.7% Edward Lee Rispone (R)

Turnout: 1.52 million votes (+/- 0.1 million)

Awesome.

Turnout was 1.51 million.

Props bro, great guess.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

This was my county prediction map. Green counties are ones that I guessed incorrectly. Yikes.

[Adam Griffin]

My FINAL prediction:

51.3% John Bel Edwards (D-Inc.)
48.7% Edward Lee Rispone (R)

Turnout: 1.52 million votes (+/- 0.1 million)

Awesome.

Turnout was 1.51 million.

Not to play "king of the castle" here, but that wasn't your prediction...?

My FINAL prediction:

52.8% John Bel Edwards (D-Inc.)
47.2% Edward Lee Rispone (R)

Turnout: 1.52 million votes (+/- 0.1 million)

[lfromnj]

+2.5 jbe

HAHA got it right this time