How much will Trump win Macomb County, MI by in 2020?

[SN2903]

Historical Data:

2016: Trump 53.6%             Clinton 42.1%              Trump +11.5
2012: Romney 47.3%                Obama 51.3%          Obama +4
2008: McCain 44.7%                  Obama 53.3%         Obama +8
2004: Bush 50.2%                Kerry 48.7%                 Bush +1.5
2000: Bush 47%                        Gore 49%                Gore +2


My prediction as of now is Trump will win by Macomb by about 9% in 2020. I think it will be slightly down from 2016 but I think he slightly improves in Oakland to around 45-46% which will offset that slight loss.

[ElectionsGuy]

As of now, about the same. I think he'll do worse in Oakland but better in the middle of the state.

[Frenchrepublican]

I think he wins it 52/46 against Biden and 53/45 against Warren.

[Frenchrepublican]

As for Oakland county I think Trump would lose it 56/42 against Biden and 55/43 against Warren.

[redeagleofficial]

Anyone saying less than 10 is either fooling themselves or clouded by their own bias (barring some unforseen megascandal/recession)

[redeagleofficial]

As for Oakland county I think Trump would lose it 56/42 against Biden and 55/43 against Warren.

Oakland is a weird one.  It is a standard typical suburban county of the type where one would expect Romney to do very well in but expect a hard swing in the other direction.  Yet, Romney was born there and the county only budged by 0.1% in 2016.  The county trended R heavily in the blue collar parts and D in the white collar parts.  Even so, the midterms showed it vote 8 points to the left of the state, similar to what it did in 2016.  I honestly don't think Trump will do better there, as black people from Detroit frequently move to places like Southfield and make it a little bluer every year, but I think the margin will be closer than people would typically expect for a county of its type.

[Adam Griffin]

It'll be 9-10 points to the right of the state.

[It’s so Joever]

Even if Trump loses the state, I could see him getting at least around an 11% margin barring some unexpected event like a recession. This seems like the exact type of county that Trump is most fit for.

[SN2903]

I think he wins it 52/46 against Biden and 53/45 against Warren.

No way Warren and Biden get over 43 % in Macomb

[538Electoral]

15%

[Bojack Horseman]

I’ll say it will be close considering Whitmer and Stabenow both just won Macomb.

[Senator-elect Spark]

8%.

Trump 53%
Democrat 45%

[Xing]

I'll say he wins it by slightly less than in 2016. Voted 7-10%.

[Intell]

Trump +14

[LiberalDem19]

I said 7-10 because I think it's gonna bump slightly left along with the rest of the country. Might not be enough to offset additional rural gains though

[pbrower2a]

Loss. Trump is a serious disappointment in Michigan, and Macomb County is one of those places in which disappointment with President Trump is enough to make a difference in Michigan in a close election in 2020. Michigan is severely polarized in its partisanship most of the time. Except perhaps for Eaton County and Livingston County, there is little of Michigan that can swing between two close elections by big margins.  Saginaw was really close, but swinging it wouldn't take much.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will help win McComb county, he was on ticket to help Obama during 2008-12 wave yrs

[redeagleofficial]

Loss. Trump is a serious disappointment in Michigan, and Macomb County is one of those places in which disappointment with President Trump is enough to make a difference in Michigan in a close election in 2020. Michigan is severely polarized in its partisanship most of the time. Except perhaps for Eaton County and Livingston County, there is little of Michigan that can swing between two close elections by big margins.  Saginaw was really close, but swinging it wouldn't take much.

Do you even live here bro?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Voted 7-10, but 4-7 is likelier than 10+ based on 2018

[pbrower2a]

Loss. Trump is a serious disappointment in Michigan, and Macomb County is one of those places in which disappointment with President Trump is enough to make a difference in Michigan in a close election in 2020. Michigan is severely polarized in its partisanship most of the time. Except perhaps for Eaton County and Livingston County, there is little of Michigan that can swing between two close elections by big margins.  Saginaw was really close, but swinging it wouldn't take much.

Do you even live here bro?

I live in Michigan. I have been in Macomb and Livingston Counties only once, though, and then only on I-94 and I-696 in Macomb and I-96 and US 23 in Livingston, which does not count for much.  I far better know Lansing, East Lansing, Ann Arbor, Grand Rapids, Flint, and downtown Detroit....

If you want my credentials for having been around Michigan, here is the list of Michigan counties that I have never been in:

Gogebic
Ontonagan
Menominee
Presque Isle
Montmorency
Missaukee
Benzie
Manistee
Newaygo


The only state in which I have missed more counties is Arizona, but Arizona has huge counties that in several cases extend from the middle of the state to the Utah state line.

[SingingAnalyst]

If Harris is on the ticket, Trump by 20+. If it's Warren or Gabbard, Trump by 8-10. I voted 10-13 just to spit the difference, though I wouldn't be surprised if Trump wins by more than 13.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harris wont be Biden's running mate