Redistricting 2020, doomed incumbents

[lfromnj]

Lets just make a list of possible incumbents that will get gerrymandered out in 2022
Here's the ones I can think of
TN5th(Inb4 someone says Nashville Bredesen 70% dummymander. Currently Nashville has a +20 clinton District and its surrounded by 3 40-50% Trump districts. Do the math)
Even if somehow the GOP does manage to lose one Nasvhille seat its still a 7-2. Losing 2 would take a wave of such enermous proportions the GOP would have been screwed as before.

Missouri 5th Again its surrounded by 2 Trump +30 and +35 districts use a bit of another district to make 2 districts around Trump +20 and the Missouri 5th around Trump +10-15 and trending R. Im gonna enjoy Cleaver getting screwed in a gerrymander and laugh so much (Note I dislike partisan gerrymanders but Cleaver kinda deserves this )

In 5th or IN 1st incumbents(unknown for IN 1st) I suspect one of them would get gerrymandered out, its quite possible for a 9-0 map in Indiana but its also a tad bit risky(even then I doubt any dummymander would get the D's more than 2 seats out of 9)  so the GOP has 3 options here.
Pack IN 7th by moving southern Marion to Northern Marion which is much more D than southern Marion by now. This protects the 5th district. Then crack the 1st. Oryxslayer said no GOP rep would want Gary but they could just give it to the New rep by cracking the 1st two ways. The surrounding area is a tad bit less GOP but IN 1st is only clinton +13. Again a dummymander would probably only result in 7-2 at worst. The other option is to the pack the 1st district by placing it on the 4 shore counties which Obama won in 2012 and where the cities are still D leaning. The final option would be to pack the 1st and the 7th for a Titanium D district. If I was the GOP I would probably pack the 7th and send the 1st packing .

VA 1st- Yeah if the VA d's have any brains they screw over Rob whitman.  NOVA is clearly more than blue as it has a C+10,C+40 and C+53 district in the area compared to Whitmanns +10 Trump district. I guess Wexton might demand a few points more for her district to around Clinton +15 but even then there is still enough of NOVA left for an easy double digit Clinton district.
VA5th-Riggleman probably should be safe and packed in 2020 as he will probably lose Albemarle  to VA 7th but if VA 5th keeps it he might go bye bye in a super aggressive VA D map.


Alabama?- I guess whoever takes AL 2nd?

Ohio-looks likely but not impossible that Steve Chabot is screwed in Cincinatti. It is possible that he gets a district similar to the current one that still follows the rules but im not sure.
On the flip side Tim Ryan might hurt a lot as his district could go from an Obama +27 to Clinton +7 to something around obama +15 to Trump +10.,Marcy Kaptur could also get a lot stronger GOP district around clinton +3 or 4 as the snake on the lake will be gone but the area is now much more Republican than before. Balderson could be in trouble a bit but I think the GOP can keep him Safe without too much outrage.

Illinois- Gonna be a mess in downstate as D's would be stupid to not take the free mixed Il 12th/13th for around a Clinton +8 district.
Possibly screwed temporarily
A super aggressive TX GOP and GA GOP gerrymander Mcbath and Fletcher. This is possible but also quite a bit risky. They might just sink them( or to be specific with Fletcher give her a district for a primary that a white D can't win)

Any others?

[Oryxslayer]

I'm going to cover most of these when we hit their turn on the state  megathread but here  my hotlist. I'm not going to count anyone who is sitting in a opposing seat like Brindisi since getting redistricting from red to red or blue to blue doesn't count as getting drawn out. Right now those with near-guaranteed ticking timers are:

- Jim Cooper (TN05) is the most vulnerable incumbent in Congress to the pen. R's didn't crack him back in 2010 cause they feared a dixiecrat revival...which never came. I did the  math on a personal map and even with Bresden's numbers there are ways that a Quad-cut gets all seats to Blackburn+10. A 5-way cut is also possible if nobody want too much of Nashville, while not compromising the protection for the Knoxville seats. Something similar would be happening in KY03 if Beshear didn't get elected last week, and can court-block the most outrageous proposals.

- Someones going down in VA, likely Rob Whitman (VA01) if dems have the cahones.

- One of the Dem's from the north jersey suburbs. There needs to be a second R seat up there to make everyone else safe, if NJ-07 flips in 2020 then the decision process gets easier. If some gets the ax congressionally they get a free ticket statewide.

- John Katko (NY24) if he survives 2020. He's facing Brindisi if Brindisi survives because NY22 is a guaranteed reapportionment, and Syracuse likely gets custody of Ithaca.

- IN01 (Open) if the GOP is feeling cocky. Similarly, MO05 (Emmanuel Cleaver). Both might survive because their remote location on the  map demands a major reshuffling of district lines. If/When MO05 gets cut it probably triggers ballot petitions for fair districts, and starts a process similar to what we saw in FL in 2016.

-IL12/13 are getting merged and one redistributed, but the reps may survive by getting stuck in other seats and having to primary other GOP'ers.

-Alex Mooney (WV02) is dead weight, always underpreforming his baseline massively. He's the easy GOP cut, especially now that WV03 seems a lock for the future.

- Someone loses the DvD primary in RI, unless they get to go statewide.

-AL02 (Open).

- Sanford Bishop (GA02) if the GOP increases AA power overall using ATL, even while making the 2nd red. They also need cleaver lawyers, because its the VRA.

-Inside California, someone from LA is losing their seat to redistribution to the OC/SD region. The new seat still will be blue though because of which areas are growing.

Someones losing their seat in MN, MI, PA, Long Island, and OH because reapportionment. But which seat is cut is a open question. Ohio is general is a black box this cycle.

[StateBoiler]

The Indiana GOP would be stupid to try and destroy the Marion County or Lake County districts.

For all the talk about gerrymanders, Rokita when he was Secretary of State and drew the districts made them really common sensical drawn districts when you look at a map. The number of counties split is incredibly minimal, which if you're an anti-gerrymandering individual, is a good measure to have. My district the 3rd has 2 split counties for the whole district. I know the Democrat that lost in the 3rd (NE Indiana - includes the whole of Fort Wayne) in 2018 said in her defeat speech "always going to be difficult with gerrymandered districts", my response was "take a look at the red counties on the border of this district, from where were you going to get votes to take you from 35% to 50%?

The 2 districts at current that are Republican-held but are challenge-able for the Democrats are the 2nd district of Jackie Walorski (South Bend-based) and the 5th of Hamilton County (open race in 2020).

[Zaybay]

Yeah, the INGOP is much more likely to create 2 D vote sink seats than to carve up one of the seats. Otherwise, I mostly agree with the list given by Oryxslayer.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Yeah, the INGOP is much more likely to create 2 D vote sink seats than to carve up one of the seats. Otherwise, I mostly agree with the list given by Oryxslayer.

Though IN-05 is probably going to be pushed to the right somehow, and maybe also IN-02.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, the INGOP is much more likely to create 2 D vote sink seats than to carve up one of the seats. Otherwise, I mostly agree with the list given by Oryxslayer.

Though IN-05 is probably going to be pushed to the right somehow, and maybe also IN-02.

Its super easy to push IN 5 to the right, just move IN 7th north lol. Again its perfectly possible for a relatively clean 8-1 map. https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/11/indiana-8-1-2022-map/
maybe  1 district could flip in a wave year but even then its still back to a 7-2. If it goes back to a 6-3 the GOP was completely screwed that year lol. I will cal the Indiana GOP idiots if they don't draw an 8-1 when a 9-0 is completely possible. (I am just speaking from an electoral perspective just like I would call the VA D's idiots if they dont draw a 4th NOVA seat.)

[politicallefty]

Don't underestimate parochial concerns by individual members. That's traditionally been one of the biggest restraints on the most extreme gerrymandering.

[Oryxslayer]

Don't underestimate parochial concerns by individual members. That's traditionally been one of the biggest restraints on the most extreme gerrymandering.

Yes, the above list could be a bit longer if everyone was a lockstep partisan, but they won't so you have to factor that into the expected MOE of potential outcomes. The only map where either side really went the whole hog and ignored  incumbent demands was in NC 2010, which is why the state ends up with such contentious lines. The NC GOP had it easy though since they had a bunch of dems who were getting axed. Of the two midwestern city seats, IN01 and MO05, MO05 is the easier target. KC and her environs are bluer then IN01, the seat is only D+7 because the  mappers wanted to prevent a Skelton comeback. However, KC is more central whereas Gary is up in the corner. IN01 also has those parochial concerns going on, Gary is a toxic place that to republicans that nobody  ever wants to represent. Like I said, Missouri has the ballot initiative, and through legal challenges will probably revive the KC seat sometime in the decade even if it does get cut.

It's notable that this time around the list of 'doomed reps' is rather short because of how reps and state govts have more  or less sorted themselves partisan-wise. Most of the 2018 wave came from areas rapidly getting blue that will become new Dem packs or from areas where Dems/Commissions have the  Pen. The opposite  is true for the GOP gains from earlier in the decade. It's different from 2010 when states  like PA, MI, and VA only had republicans (or AR and KY with only Dems) mapping the lines. Just a step down we see NJ, MN, and NV had team red sitting in powerful seats at the table, further expanding their potential gains.

[nerd73]

If Horn survives in 2020 and there's still no commission the OKC seat is almost certainly getting destroyed.

[lfromnj]

If Horn survives in 2020 and there's still no commission the OKC seat is almost certainly getting destroyed.

How did I forget her

Also Cunningham too
Maybe Utah 4th too its possible to perfectly crack it.

[Skill and Chance]

If Horn survives in 2020 and there's still no commission the OKC seat is almost certainly getting destroyed.

How did I forget her

Also Cunningham too
Maybe Utah 4th too its possible to perfectly crack it.

Utah actually has a commission now, but it's only a statute and the legislature can repeal/edit it by passing a new law if they want to.  I do think they won't completely repeal it and the other reps may not want to take McAdams's Dem territory, particularly if Trump loses Salt Lake County convincingly again.   

If a Dem wins NE-02 next time, they can be drawn out by the Nebraska legislature (and the EV made safer GOP) unless the redistricting reform referendum passes.  Though Maine (Dem trifecta) could retaliate by just ending their EV splitting altogether if the 2020 Dem wins convincingly statewide.  Maine requires a 2/3rds majority to pass a map, so they don't have the votes to make 2 Clinton CDs.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

On the other hand, what incumbents would be doomed if we were to suppose that the anti-gerrymandering aspects of HR1 were passed? Thats does change the outcome quite a bit.

[Oryxslayer]

If a Dem is in a seriously red seat and going to become a seriously red seat (or GOP, blue to blue), like Horn or Cunningham, it isn't being drawn out. It's reclamation. There are not many of these this time, no more Dixiecrats or Rockefellers. They therefore do not count as doomed incumbents, since their occurrence originally was an abnormality, not when compared to TN05 and the long list of seats that suffered similar fates in 2010.

[lfromnj]

If a Dem is in a seriously red seat and going to become a seriously red seat (or GOP, blue to blue), like Horn or Cunningham, it isn't being drawn out. It's reclamation. There are not many of these this time, no more Dixiecrats or Rockefellers. They therefore do not count as doomed incumbents, since their occurrence originally was an abnormality, not when compared to TN05 and the long list of seats that suffered similar fates in 2010.

I think SC 1 is already maxed out for the GOP (6-1 in a +10 and +14 state that has some natural vote sinks wasn't gonna work out.) It is possible to probably gerrymander it out but it would require some super ugly lines as its currently only bordering the D vote sink district.)

Ok 5 could easily be mandered out.

[Nyvin]

In Illinois whoever ends up in IL-3 after 2020 might be screwed in 2022 since it's almost certainly going to be made a hispanic majority seat.

In Pennsylvania, it probably makes the most sense to divide up either PA-13 or PA-15 between east and west.   

In Minnesota I don't see any other possibility other than chopping up MN-7, it's already the least populated.   Assuming MN loses a seat obviously.

A tough one to call is Michigan.    I'd probably predict the commission remakes MI-5 to include Flint with both Saginaw and Midland, and move Bay City in with the Thumb district (MI-10) since the entire area is losing population.  After that it's probably one of the mid-northern districts to get the axe (MI-2 or MI-4).

[Oryxslayer]

In Illinois whoever ends up in IL-3 after 2020 might be screwed in 2022 since it's almost certainly going to be made a hispanic majority seat.

I doubt so. IL lacks the pop for two reliably Hispanic seats - it couldn't work with 18 districts and it certainly can't with 17. Remember there is a large dropoff between Hispanic pop and Hispanic voters when compared to any other group. García's base is on the South side  of the earmuffs whereas Gutiérrez was from the north, so Garcia will naturally want more  of the southern Hispanics inside his bit. When you remember Madigan protects his Dems - especially since he personally is repp'ed by the 3rd...yeah nothing is going to happen to endanger whomever is there in 2021 be it Lipinski or another Dem.

[StateBoiler]

Yeah, the INGOP is much more likely to create 2 D vote sink seats than to carve up one of the seats. Otherwise, I mostly agree with the list given by Oryxslayer.

Though IN-05 is probably going to be pushed to the right somehow, and maybe also IN-02.

Its super easy to push IN 5 to the right, just move IN 7th north lol. Again its perfectly possible for a relatively clean 8-1 map. https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/11/indiana-8-1-2022-map/
maybe  1 district could flip in a wave year but even then its still back to a 7-2. If it goes back to a 6-3 the GOP was completely screwed that year lol. I will cal the Indiana GOP idiots if they don't draw an 8-1 when a 9-0 is completely possible. (I am just speaking from an electoral perspective just like I would call the VA D's idiots if they dont draw a 4th NOVA seat.)

That 1st district is a disaster and would never stand up to scrutiny.

One thing Rokita did setting up the teens districts and I really like is he kind of based districts around where the TV stations were based at. For example, in the 3rd, the counties are all in the Fort Wayne media market, so you only have to buy TV ads in the Fort Wayne media market. Your 1st district, to touch the whole district you'd have to buy ad time in Chicago, Lafayette, and Indianapolis. That's brutal unless you're the richest candidate.

Also, your 3rd is too small. You've added Elkhart County to offset removing Whitley, Huntington, Adams, Wells, Jay, and parts of Kosciusko and Blackford. Can't think that's enough people.

[Nyvin]

Yeah, the INGOP is much more likely to create 2 D vote sink seats than to carve up one of the seats. Otherwise, I mostly agree with the list given by Oryxslayer.

Though IN-05 is probably going to be pushed to the right somehow, and maybe also IN-02.

Its super easy to push IN 5 to the right, just move IN 7th north lol. Again its perfectly possible for a relatively clean 8-1 map. https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/11/indiana-8-1-2022-map/
maybe  1 district could flip in a wave year but even then its still back to a 7-2. If it goes back to a 6-3 the GOP was completely screwed that year lol. I will cal the Indiana GOP idiots if they don't draw an 8-1 when a 9-0 is completely possible. (I am just speaking from an electoral perspective just like I would call the VA D's idiots if they dont draw a 4th NOVA seat.)

That 1st district is a disaster and would never stand up to scrutiny.

One thing Rokita did setting up the teens districts and I really like is he kind of based districts around where the TV stations were based at. For example, in the 3rd, the counties are all in the Fort Wayne media market, so you only have to buy TV ads in the Fort Wayne media market. Your 1st district, to touch the whole district you'd have to buy ad time in Chicago, Lafayette, and Indianapolis. That's brutal unless you're the richest candidate.

Also, your 3rd is too small. You've added Elkhart County to offset removing Whitley, Huntington, Adams, Wells, Jay, and parts of Kosciusko and Blackford. Can't think that's enough people.

1, 4, and 5 on that map are all horrendous.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway here my 8-1 map that I have had laying about for a month or so. Like I said, it's both ugly, and compromises a bunch of other stuff across the map. The end result is ever seat but the Gary one being R+10 PVI or greater, with the new Gary 1st as R+9. I don't even know why the RRH map uses way-outdated Obama numbers. Cutting the first a move would be done from pure partisanship. When I drew this I also reinforced 9 and 5: Hollingsworth undepreforms every time (but not by as much as say Moody), and whatever happens in the 5th come 2020 will scream that the seat needs GOP reinforcements.



Now, there are a bunch of downsides to cutting Gary, and only one really good one. If they are going to cut, Gary is the choice; it's shrinking, the regions getting less blue, and the other option is growing AND flipping the surrounding region blue. If they don't move against Gary then I fail to see why a Snake like this isn't the ideal move. It frees up the GOP'ing parts of the present IN01 for other seats, which allows said seats to give IN05 reinforcements easier. It protects against the South Bend region which is actually getting bluer. A hidden side effect is it gives Buttegieg an outlet to run/primary in if he fails for the executive slot. Getting the Butte on your delegation is just naturally going to draw more media, bring in more resources for Indiana, and might put Indiana on track for a position in the Dem congressional leadership, not a bad haul if you have to concede a blue seat. It's a similar scenario to how House dems treated Kennedy.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, the INGOP is much more likely to create 2 D vote sink seats than to carve up one of the seats. Otherwise, I mostly agree with the list given by Oryxslayer.

Though IN-05 is probably going to be pushed to the right somehow, and maybe also IN-02.

Its super easy to push IN 5 to the right, just move IN 7th north lol. Again its perfectly possible for a relatively clean 8-1 map. https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/11/indiana-8-1-2022-map/
maybe  1 district could flip in a wave year but even then its still back to a 7-2. If it goes back to a 6-3 the GOP was completely screwed that year lol. I will cal the Indiana GOP idiots if they don't draw an 8-1 when a 9-0 is completely possible. (I am just speaking from an electoral perspective just like I would call the VA D's idiots if they dont draw a 4th NOVA seat.)

That 1st district is a disaster and would never stand up to scrutiny.

One thing Rokita did setting up the teens districts and I really like is he kind of based districts around where the TV stations were based at. For example, in the 3rd, the counties are all in the Fort Wayne media market, so you only have to buy TV ads in the Fort Wayne media market. Your 1st district, to touch the whole district you'd have to buy ad time in Chicago, Lafayette, and Indianapolis. That's brutal unless you're the richest candidate.

Also, your 3rd is too small. You've added Elkhart County to offset removing Whitley, Huntington, Adams, Wells, Jay, and parts of Kosciusko and Blackford. Can't think that's enough people.

1, 4, and 5 on that map are all horrendous.

5 actually is a pretty good district. It could be cleaned up even imo but it gives the district a good COI. It's a gerrymander of course but once northern marion is taken any district in the region is safe r.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Yeah, the INGOP is much more likely to create 2 D vote sink seats than to carve up one of the seats. Otherwise, I mostly agree with the list given by Oryxslayer.

Though IN-05 is probably going to be pushed to the right somehow, and maybe also IN-02.

Its super easy to push IN 5 to the right, just move IN 7th north lol. Again its perfectly possible for a relatively clean 8-1 map. https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/11/indiana-8-1-2022-map/
maybe  1 district could flip in a wave year but even then its still back to a 7-2. If it goes back to a 6-3 the GOP was completely screwed that year lol. I will cal the Indiana GOP idiots if they don't draw an 8-1 when a 9-0 is completely possible. (I am just speaking from an electoral perspective just like I would call the VA D's idiots if they dont draw a 4th NOVA seat.)

That 1st district is a disaster and would never stand up to scrutiny.

One thing Rokita did setting up the teens districts and I really like is he kind of based districts around where the TV stations were based at. For example, in the 3rd, the counties are all in the Fort Wayne media market, so you only have to buy TV ads in the Fort Wayne media market. Your 1st district, to touch the whole district you'd have to buy ad time in Chicago, Lafayette, and Indianapolis. That's brutal unless you're the richest candidate.

Also, your 3rd is too small. You've added Elkhart County to offset removing Whitley, Huntington, Adams, Wells, Jay, and parts of Kosciusko and Blackford. Can't think that's enough people.

1, 4, and 5 on that map are all horrendous.

5 actually is a pretty good district. It could be cleaned up even imo but it gives the district a good COI. It's a gerrymander of course but once northern marion is taken any district in the region is safe r.

IN-05 is actually a bit of a dummymander. Going up to Delaware County makes it a bit more competitive than it needs to be, which was decisive in causing Joe Donnelly to win the District in both 2012 and 2018. A more sensible communities of interest based District would instead curve around to Boone and Hendricks County after taking Hamilton County, which would make the Disrict more Republican.

[Tekken_Guy]

AL: Someone who moves up to run statewide can give up their seat.
CA: If they lose a seat Nunes may be forced to run against Cox while McCarthy gets the rest of the seat.
IL: Districts 12 and 13 get merged into one Metro East district with the remnants being distributed amongst 15 and 18.
MI: Dingell retires.
MN: Michelle Fischbach if she wins will probably lose her seat to the other three GOP reps.
NJ: The 7th becomes an R vote sink while Malinowski is moved to the 12th.
NY: Katko probably gets screwed over by taking in Ithaca, while the 27th gets spliced up between Reed, Modell’s, and Higgins.
OH: Chabot and Wenstrup will get stuck with a Cincinnati district and Stivers will have to run in Columbus. Tim Ryan will also be in much redder territory. The 9th gets cut up IMO, the Toledo portions becoming part of the 5th and the Cleveland portions becoming the new 9th and merging with the old 16th.
PA: Glenn Thompson gets the 15th split between the 12th and 16th.
TN: Jim Cooper in a 4 way split.
VA: Denver Riggleman.

[lfromnj]

AL: Someone who moves up to run statewide can give up their seat.
CA: If they lose a seat Nunes may be forced to run against Cox while McCarthy gets the rest of the seat.
IL: Districts 12 and 13 get merged into one Metro East district with the remnants being distributed amongst 15 and 18.
MI: Dingell retires.
MN: Michelle Fischbach if she wins will probably lose her seat to the other three GOP reps.
NJ: The 7th becomes an R vote sink while Malinowski is moved to the 12th.
NY: Katko probably gets screwed over by taking in Ithaca, while the 27th gets spliced up between Reed, Modell’s, and Higgins.
OH: Chabot and Wenstrup will get stuck with a Cincinnati district and Stivers will have to run in Columbus. Tim Ryan will also be in much redder territory. The 9th gets cut up IMO, the Toledo portions becoming part of the 5th and the Cleveland portions becoming the new 9th and merging with the old 16th.
PA: Glenn Thompson gets the 15th split between the 12th and 16th.
TN: Jim Cooper in a 4 way split.
VA: Denver Riggleman.

Why would Riggleman be cut up?
In most scenarios his district should be losing Charlottesville which moves him from Safe R to Titanium R. The VA d's could draw a shaky 9-2 map but its closer to like 6 Safe D, 2 Likely D and 1 Tilt D which would be riggleman. He would still have a fighting chance in almost any scenario.

[Oryxslayer]

AL: Someone who moves up to run statewide can give up their seat.
CA: If they lose a seat Nunes may be forced to run against Cox while McCarthy gets the rest of the seat.
IL: Districts 12 and 13 get merged into one Metro East district with the remnants being distributed amongst 15 and 18.
MI: Dingell retires.
MN: Michelle Fischbach if she wins will probably lose her seat to the other three GOP reps.
NJ: The 7th becomes an R vote sink while Malinowski is moved to the 12th.
NY: Katko probably gets screwed over by taking in Ithaca, while the 27th gets spliced up between Reed, Modell’s, and Higgins.
OH: Chabot and Wenstrup will get stuck with a Cincinnati district and Stivers will have to run in Columbus. Tim Ryan will also be in much redder territory. The 9th gets cut up IMO, the Toledo portions becoming part of the 5th and the Cleveland portions becoming the new 9th and merging with the old 16th.
PA: Glenn Thompson gets the 15th split between the 12th and 16th.
TN: Jim Cooper in a 4 way split.
VA: Denver Riggleman.

Your making a classic mistake in assuming that whenever a seat gets cut, the short straw is determined by partisan interests. Yes, partisanship impacts the process, but you cannot ignore which areas are growing and shrinking. For reference, here's my thoughts on who gets cut based on a combination of partisan and demographic data, some I have already mentioned:

AL: AL-02. Easy. Black portions into the VRA seat which is the real shrinker, rest gets divided up.

CA: IF CA loses a seat, it comes from the NE which is the only region shrinking in the  state. This likely means CA-03 or CA-04 in some fashion. The south valley is actually growing the fastest in the state via non-voting Hispanic farmworkers. Now, CA is probably not losing a seat, everything surrounding it seems like media hype. For example, CA is pouring a incomparable sum of money into assisting the census count "hard to count individuals" in the rural south valley that were likely missed by the last census. For comparisons sake, Texas has a bunch of these as well in the South and West, but is putting down 0$ to assist the census. Then there's the fact that CA's competition are MT-02, NY-26, and MN-08, all seats in states with far less cards in their hand than CA.

IL: IL-12/13 get sliced and diced, it's obvious from a mile away.

MI: No idea. The entire state is shrinking except the suburbs/Lansing/Grand Rapids (which is why your prediction is weird) and since the lines will be reshuffled a big way we don't know who will be left standing. Could be a northern seat, MI06/7 could get merged, could be a Detroit seat, who knows with the commission.

MN: MN-07 is the easy cut. There will be either a retiring Dem or a freshman Republican there in 2020. Thing is, if Dems have the pen, which is likely considering the State Senate map, than the GOP seats in the west will go through a shakeup as Dems gerry themselves 5 seats. So who is left standing is an open question.

NY: NY has to lose one seat, and that is fated to come from upstate. It's the region shrinking the most. That seat is essentially already decided to be the 22nd, it's a big shrinker, it's central location makes it easy to cut, and the rep going to be new. If Brindisi is still around he's in the  new 24th. Now, if NY loses a second it CANNOT come from upstate, since upstate under 26 seats is actually underrepresented. The next easiest place to cut a seat is a connector between Nassau and NYC, like NY04 or NY03. However, the  Long island seats are  likely to get reshuffled (similar to MN/MI), especially with King gone, so who knows who gets a seat next decade.

OH: Some idea. Ohio in general is a black box since they got a 'commision' but there are so many ways that body could decide to interpret the law and utilize the tools it offers. However, it's pretty much one of OH07/15/04 who are fated to get left stranding.

PA: Anything north/west of SEPA and the Lancaster/York/Dauphin region is up for grabs. My take is PA09, but could be 15, could be 12, who knows.

RI: DvD primary or someone runs statewide.

WV: WV-02. Moody underpreforms, and the present WV-03 is now a GOP lock without fear of it voting blue.

[Non Swing Voter]

I hope NY democrats do everything they can to get rid of some of the NY pro-Trump flamethrowers like Stefanik and Zeldin.  I can't imagine their nonsense is in line with moderate NY voters.