What counties are getting Whiter?

[Del Tachi]

Are there any populous counties in the U.S. where the percentage of the population that is non-Hispanic Whites is growing?  The browning of America has been a trend for decades, but I was curious to see if any significant areas were actually bucking this trend

My guess would be some super-urban counties in the Acela corridor (i.e., New York, NY; Suffolk, MA; D.C. etc.) may be getting more White, plus maybe somewhere like Wayne, MI or Orleans, LA due to ongoing gentrification? 

[DINGO Joe]

Orleans is definitely voting whiter

2012--53000 white 96000 black 10000 other
2020--71000 white 94000 black 15000 other

Although it's also voting more D too.

[H. Ross Peron]

Fulton County, GA (Atlanta)?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fulton County, GA (Atlanta)?

Atlanta is becoming whiter, but the areas to its north are going the opposite direction. So hard to tell I suppose?

[Samof94]

Are there any populous counties in the U.S. where the percentage of the population that is non-Hispanic Whites is growing?  The browning of America has been a trend for decades, but I was curious to see if any significant areas were actually bucking this trend

My guess would be some super-urban counties in the Acela corridor (i.e., New York, NY; Suffolk, MA; D.C. etc.) may be getting more White, plus maybe somewhere like Wayne, MI or Orleans, LA due to ongoing gentrification? 

Some rural areas in the Midwest I guess.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Detroit, because the black population is dropping fast.

[cvparty]

i think denver is

[Wormless Gourd]

DC
Kings County/Brooklyn
Quite a Southern counties experiencing exurban development, particularly in SC, NC, GA
Charleston county
Horry county I believe
If you include whites with Hispanic ethnicity there's a lot more counties where whites have ticked up as a percent of the population, such as Baltimore, Philadelphia, Wayne county and San Francisco.

[It’s so Joever]

Orleans is definitely voting whiter

2012--53000 white 96000 black 10000 other
2020--71000 white 94000 black 15000 other

Although it's also voting more D too.

Racial depolarization moment.

[Alcibiades]

Pretty sure there are quite a few in the Black Belt, either as African-Americans move out to cities, or as white retirees move in.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

New Hanover NC, Brunswick NC, Beaufort SC
Old white retirees flooding in

[Tartarus Sauce]

The Black Belt for starters, lots of African Americans moving out of the rural South to greener pastures in the urban South.

Not a county, but Washington, D.C. has gentrified like crazy over the past decade, the white population actually surpassed the black population for the first time in over six decades a couple of years ago.

[lfromnj]

In Atlanta(Not Fulton) but the actual city of Atlanta itself went from 36% white to 38.1% white. Atlanta was actually bleeding population for a few decades till 2000, then went neutral and suddenly boomed huge with white gentrification this decade.

In SC, Charleston County is getting more white but also more D while Jasper county which is also on the coast is getting more white and will likely vote R in 2024 with current population trends.

Cook county has marginally dropped in its white percentage but the actual city of Chicago has seen a small increase.

In Exurban Raleigh, Franklin County NC is getting more white along with Chatham County and Durham County too.

[Vosem]

Are there any populous counties in the U.S. where the percentage of the population that is non-Hispanic Whites is growing?  The browning of America has been a trend for decades, but I was curious to see if any significant areas were actually bucking this trend

My guess would be some super-urban counties in the Acela corridor (i.e., New York, NY; Suffolk, MA; D.C. etc.) may be getting more White, plus maybe somewhere like Wayne, MI or Orleans, LA due to ongoing gentrification?  

Of the states and territories, the only ones which are estimated to have become whiter over the 2010s are DC and South Carolina (an odd juxtaposition indeed).

EDIT: Also, do you insist on non-Hispanic white? Plenty of places have become whiter because more Hispanic (this is true for all five boroughs of New York City, for instance). In some places this has been an extreme change: between the 2010 Census and the 2018 ACS estimate the percentage of Bronx residents who self-identify as white, if you include Hispanic white, went from 28% to 44%. But all five boroughs have become marginally less non-Hispanic white.

EDIT 2: The DC and South Carolina thing is also true only for non-Hispanic whites. At least one fairly prominent state has become whiter because more Hispanic: Florida. I'm sure others have as well but don't really feel like checking manually.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are there any populous counties in the U.S. where the percentage of the population that is non-Hispanic Whites is growing?  The browning of America has been a trend for decades, but I was curious to see if any significant areas were actually bucking this trend

My guess would be some super-urban counties in the Acela corridor (i.e., New York, NY; Suffolk, MA; D.C. etc.) may be getting more White, plus maybe somewhere like Wayne, MI or Orleans, LA due to ongoing gentrification? 

Of the states and territories, the only ones which are estimated to have become whiter over the 2010s are DC and South Carolina (an odd juxtaposition indeed).

EDIT: Also, do you insist on non-Hispanic white? Plenty of places have become whiter because more Hispanic (this is true for all five boroughs of New York City, for instance). In some places this has been an extreme change: between the 2010 Census and the 2018 ACS estimate the percentage of Bronx residents who self-identify as white, if you include Hispanic white, went from 28% to 44%. But all five boroughs have become marginally less non-Hispanic white.

EDIT 2: The DC and South Carolina thing is also true only for non-Hispanic whites. At least one fairly prominent state has become whiter because more Hispanic: Florida. I'm sure others have as well but don't really feel like checking manually.

tbf, non-Hispanic White and White are two very different things and it can hurt to be over-exclusive.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A lot of the Rural Deep South, especially areas on the fringes of metro areas that are starting to see exurban development.  I fully expect that this phenomenon will result in the last rural Democratic county in Tennessee flipping Republican within the next 10 years or so.

[bagelman]

A lot of the Rural Deep South, especially areas on the fringes of metro areas that are starting to see exurban development.  I fully expect that this phenomenon will result in the last rural Democratic county in Tennessee flipping Republican within the next 10 years or so.

You refer of course to Haywood, and the margins there are already notably weaker now than during the Obama era. Unless Democrats can somehow rebound among the GOP's core demos than I agree with you.

[Hope For A New Era]

I fully expect that this phenomenon will result in the last rural Democratic county in Tennessee flipping Republican within the next 10 years or so.

You think Memphis will sprawl as far as Haywood within the decade?

[Sol]

I fully expect that this phenomenon will result in the last rural Democratic county in Tennessee flipping Republican within the next 10 years or so.

You think Memphis will sprawl as far as Haywood within the decade?

Yeah IMO Haywood is a little bit too far out to get swallowed up by the Memphis metro in the near future, especially since the Memphis area's growth rate is fairly tepid and concentrated in the favored quarter east of the city/Mississippi.

Edit: Fixed lol, always get east and west mixed up.

[Hope For A New Era]

I fully expect that this phenomenon will result in the last rural Democratic county in Tennessee flipping Republican within the next 10 years or so.

You think Memphis will sprawl as far as Haywood within the decade?

Yeah IMO Haywood is a little bit too far out to get swallowed up by the Memphis metro in the near future, especially since the Memphis area's growth rate is fairly tepid and concentrated in the favored quarter west of the city/Mississippi.

It seems like the city just wants to sprawl east along 57 endlessly.

[Adam Griffin]

I made this map (thread) several years ago that explores the average annual demographic shift by US county (1990-2012). Instead of listening merely to potentially statistical noise from a couple of years, this examines over 20 years of shifts - though it is outdated in some respects by now.

The counties you'd begin looking at are the dark blue ones in this version of the map, which is comparable to an "Atlas Trend" map. The original version of the map can be found in the thread linked above: