Redistricting 2020, doomed incumbents

[Skill and Chance]

Also Illinois Supreme court has a small chance of flipping. Theres two seats up in 2020. Illinois supreme court works with 7 seats total with 3 going to one district which is Cook and 4 more districts for the rest of the state. The cook district is Titanium D of course.
District 5 is southern IL and +30 Trump which is Titanium R, District 4 is also Safe R at +19 Trump with it covering Central Il.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1082390573665972225
But these are the remaining districts. District 2 and 3 are more competetive. District 2 is obama clinton Pritzker but because of the suburbs it was only narrowly obama and Pritzker although Clinton won it by 9. However it has a GOP incumbent currently for its district.
District 4 is Obama Trump at +3 obama and +5 Trump. It includes Will county which is suburban but isn't really moving left unlike Kane,Dupage, or Lake.
A D incumbent holds this seat. So if the GOP somehow holds onto district 2 while flipping 3 they could get a majority in IL. Also both district 2 and 3s incumbents could retire. The important thing to note about district 3 is that even if its obama trump its not really ancestrally D.

Yes, forgot about IL.  That is potentially a big one as the current court blocked the redistricting commission amendment from the 2018 ballot in a 4/3 party line vote.

Wild that there is is both a Trump Dem and a Clinton R on the court.  I think the most likely outcome is that both of those seats flip, preserving the current 4D/3R split, but a shift to 4R/3D would be momentous.  On a note similar to NC, legislative Dems currently have the 3/5ths majorities needed to propose alternative constitutional amendments, but voters would have to then approve them.

There is also Maine, which does gubernatorial appointments with state senate confirmation and term limits.  Currently it has 3 Baldacci (D) appointees, 2 LePage (R) appointees, and 2 Angus King (I/de facto D) appointees.  There is likely to be a deadlock on at least one of the maps due to the 2/3rds majority requirement in the state constitution.

EDIT: Nevermind, both of the "wrong party" seats on the court are only up for nonpartisan retention elections.  Incumbent judges basically never lose those except in cases of serious misconduct. 

[Nyvin]

Also Illinois Supreme court has a small chance of flipping. Theres two seats up in 2020. Illinois supreme court works with 7 seats total with 3 going to one district which is Cook and 4 more districts for the rest of the state. The cook district is Titanium D of course.
District 5 is southern IL and +30 Trump which is Titanium R, District 4 is also Safe R at +19 Trump with it covering Central Il.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1082390573665972225
But these are the remaining districts. District 2 and 3 are more competetive. District 2 is obama clinton Pritzker but because of the suburbs it was only narrowly obama and Pritzker although Clinton won it by 9. However it has a GOP incumbent currently for its district.
District 4 is Obama Trump at +3 obama and +5 Trump. It includes Will county which is suburban but isn't really moving left unlike Kane,Dupage, or Lake.
A D incumbent holds this seat. So if the GOP somehow holds onto district 2 while flipping 3 they could get a majority in IL. Also both district 2 and 3s incumbents could retire. The important thing to note about district 3 is that even if its obama trump its not really ancestrally D.

It's weird how that map is even allowed.   The two southern districts are both severely underpopulated by at least 500k.   District 4 in particular barely has 10% of the state's population despite have 1/7 of the court seats.   

District 2 is also crazy overpopulated,  it has 3.2 mil people when an evenly divided district would have 1.8 mil.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Lucy McBath, Kendra Horn,

[Storr]

Lucy McBath, Kendra Horn,

The Georgia GOP would be opening themselves up for a dummymander if they try to strip McBath's seat and GA-07. They will have to leave at least one D northern Atlanta suburban seat, which McBath would likely run for.

[Skill and Chance]

Lucy McBath, Kendra Horn,

The Georgia GOP would be opening themselves up for a dummymander if they try to strip McBath's seat and GA-07. They will have to leave at least one D northern Atlanta suburban seat, which McBath would likely run for.

Also Oklahoma has an independent commission referendum in progress.  These reforms do occasionally fail in very one-sided states (a commission amendment failed to get on the ballot in South Dakota, Maryland voted to keep the gerrymander in a 2012 referendum), but they are overwhelmingly likely to pass if they make the ballot.  Even Utah narrowly voted for a redistricting commission last year.

[Oryxslayer]

Georgia has it's own long 2020 thread if you wish to discuss/argue about  the potential GOP gerrymander.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Lucy McBath, Kendra Horn,

The Georgia GOP would be opening themselves up for a dummymander if they try to strip McBath's seat and GA-07. They will have to leave at least one D northern Atlanta suburban seat, which McBath would likely run for.

No they don't, as I and others have demonstrated dozens of times. You can easily draw 11 Trump 57%+, 15+ point margin seats, let alone a mere 10 (due to the VRA in South Georgia)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

For instance, here's a VRA compliant 10-4 map I drew a couple days ago. Trump carried every seat by at least 13 points and won at least 55% of the vote in each, which was basically the max 2018 flip threshold. https://imgur.com/a/Do9el9i

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Trump carried the new “McBath” seat under this map by 19 points.

[lfromnj]

Interesting question is Utah with the commission which the legislature can ignore but what if the governor feels the need to have good government and refuses a gerrymander with some moderates in the legislature?

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting question is Utah with the commission which the legislature can ignore but what if the governor feels the need to have good government and refuses a gerrymander with some moderates in the legislature?

Hmmm... Huntsman in particular seems unlikely to sign a commission override bill if he is the next governor, but it may not matter.  Republicans have nearly 80% of the seats in both chambers (and only 1 seat flipped in each last year), so they can lose a lot of votes and still do a veto override. 

The optics of repealing the commission outright would be really, really bad.  I don't think that is what will happen.  It's more likely that they edit the commission's criteria/procedure in a way that would lead to a more Republican-leaning map.  For example, removing the COI criterion, or removing the  municipality (SLC) splitting provision but keeping the minimal county splits one.   

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I feel like the CA commission is going to make a South OC - Newport Beach seat, so probably someone getting shifted a bit there. No kills though probably. Any thoughts on that?

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting question is Utah with the commission which the legislature can ignore but what if the governor feels the need to have good government and refuses a gerrymander with some moderates in the legislature?

Hmmm... Huntsman in particular seems unlikely to sign a commission override bill if he is the next governor, but it may not matter.  Republicans have nearly 80% of the seats in both chambers (and only 1 seat flipped in each last year), so they can lose a lot of votes and still do a veto override. 

The optics of repealing the commission outright would be really, really bad.  I don't think that is what will happen.  It's more likely that they edit the commission's criteria/procedure in a way that would lead to a more Republican-leaning map.  For example, removing the COI criterion, or removing the  municipality (SLC) splitting provision but keeping the minimal county splits one.   

What would the partisan numbers be on a SLC district that only included the most Republican parts of the county?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Interesting question is Utah with the commission which the legislature can ignore but what if the governor feels the need to have good government and refuses a gerrymander with some moderates in the legislature?

Hmmm... Huntsman in particular seems unlikely to sign a commission override bill if he is the next governor, but it may not matter.  Republicans have nearly 80% of the seats in both chambers (and only 1 seat flipped in each last year), so they can lose a lot of votes and still do a veto override. 

The optics of repealing the commission outright would be really, really bad.  I don't think that is what will happen.  It's more likely that they edit the commission's criteria/procedure in a way that would lead to a more Republican-leaning map.  For example, removing the COI criterion, or removing the  municipality (SLC) splitting provision but keeping the minimal county splits one.   

What would the partisan numbers be on a SLC district that only included the most Republican parts of the county?

Something like R+10 (DRA doesn't have Presidential 2016 numbers)

[lfromnj]

Interesting question is Utah with the commission which the legislature can ignore but what if the governor feels the need to have good government and refuses a gerrymander with some moderates in the legislature?

Hmmm... Huntsman in particular seems unlikely to sign a commission override bill if he is the next governor, but it may not matter.  Republicans have nearly 80% of the seats in both chambers (and only 1 seat flipped in each last year), so they can lose a lot of votes and still do a veto override. 

The optics of repealing the commission outright would be really, really bad.  I don't think that is what will happen.  It's more likely that they edit the commission's criteria/procedure in a way that would lead to a more Republican-leaning map.  For example, removing the COI criterion, or removing the  municipality (SLC) splitting provision but keeping the minimal county splits one.   

What would the partisan numbers be on a SLC district that only included the most Republican parts of the county?

Something like R+10 (DRA doesn't have Presidential 2016 numbers)

Just give us the Mccain numbers. Both Trump and Romney numbers are too extreme in utah.

[politicallefty]

I played around with Utah a bit. If Republicans can't pizza slice Salt Lake County, they could actually risk a 2-2 delegation. A district entirely within Salt Lake County, but starting from the far more Republican south and moving up and taking in the most Republican areas, you get a district that voted for McCain by about 56-41 (R+13 2012/2016 PVI). That's a couple points to the left of Matheson's old seat, but entirely urban/suburban and very winnable for certain Utah Democrats. The problem for Republicans if they can't pizza slice SLC is that the county in its entirety is about 1.5 districts. If you take the remainder of Salt Lake County and combine it with most of ultra-Republican Utah County, you end up with a 55-42 McCain district (R+10). Once again, absolutely winnable for Utah Dems. On the other hand, a Salt Lake County district that takes in all of SLC and the more Democratic areas and moves south ends up at about 56-41 Obama (D+5) and basically safely Democratic. In that case, the rest of the state is extremely off-limits for Democrats.   

[Skill and Chance]

I played around with Utah a bit. If Republicans can't pizza slice Salt Lake County, they could actually risk a 2-2 delegation. A district entirely within Salt Lake County, but starting from the far more Republican south and moving up and taking in the most Republican areas, you get a district that voted for McCain by about 56-41 (R+13 2012/2016 PVI). That's a couple points to the left of Matheson's old seat, but entirely urban/suburban and very winnable for certain Utah Democrats. The problem for Republicans if they can't pizza slice SLC is that the county in its entirety is about 1.5 districts. If you take the remainder of Salt Lake County and combine it with most of ultra-Republican Utah County, you end up with a 55-42 McCain district (R+10). Once again, absolutely winnable for Utah Dems. On the other hand, a Salt Lake County district that takes in all of SLC and the more Democratic areas and moves south ends up at about 56-41 Obama (D+5) and basically safely Democratic. In that case, the rest of the state is extremely off-limits for Democrats.   

The crucial question in all of this is what happens in UT-04 next year.  If McAdams loses, they will face the most pressure to go for broke and try to draw 4 districts that match the statewide PV.   On the other hand, if McAdams wins by 10 and UT-02 is close or even flips because SLC is voting 2:1 Dem, they will be happy to approve a 60% Dem UT-04 with all of SLC in it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Interesting question is Utah with the commission which the legislature can ignore but what if the governor feels the need to have good government and refuses a gerrymander with some moderates in the legislature?

Hmmm... Huntsman in particular seems unlikely to sign a commission override bill if he is the next governor, but it may not matter.  Republicans have nearly 80% of the seats in both chambers (and only 1 seat flipped in each last year), so they can lose a lot of votes and still do a veto override. 

The optics of repealing the commission outright would be really, really bad.  I don't think that is what will happen.  It's more likely that they edit the commission's criteria/procedure in a way that would lead to a more Republican-leaning map.  For example, removing the COI criterion, or removing the  municipality (SLC) splitting provision but keeping the minimal county splits one.   

What would the partisan numbers be on a SLC district that only included the most Republican parts of the county?

Something like R+10 (DRA doesn't have Presidential 2016 numbers)

The DRA version I use has 2016 presidential numbers

https://davesredistricting.org/pages/index.html

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Interesting question is Utah with the commission which the legislature can ignore but what if the governor feels the need to have good government and refuses a gerrymander with some moderates in the legislature?

Hmmm... Huntsman in particular seems unlikely to sign a commission override bill if he is the next governor, but it may not matter.  Republicans have nearly 80% of the seats in both chambers (and only 1 seat flipped in each last year), so they can lose a lot of votes and still do a veto override. 

The optics of repealing the commission outright would be really, really bad.  I don't think that is what will happen.  It's more likely that they edit the commission's criteria/procedure in a way that would lead to a more Republican-leaning map.  For example, removing the COI criterion, or removing the  municipality (SLC) splitting provision but keeping the minimal county splits one.   

What would the partisan numbers be on a SLC district that only included the most Republican parts of the county?

Something like R+10 (DRA doesn't have Presidential 2016 numbers)

The DRA version I use has 2016 presidential numbers

https://davesredistricting.org/pages/index.html

Utah does not have 2016 data yet. Only 2008.

[Idaho Conservative]

The Indiana GOP would be stupid to try and destroy the Marion County or Lake County districts.

For all the talk about gerrymanders, Rokita when he was Secretary of State and drew the districts made them really common sensical drawn districts when you look at a map. The number of counties split is incredibly minimal, which if you're an anti-gerrymandering individual, is a good measure to have. My district the 3rd has 2 split counties for the whole district. I know the Democrat that lost in the 3rd (NE Indiana - includes the whole of Fort Wayne) in 2018 said in her defeat speech "always going to be difficult with gerrymandered districts", my response was "take a look at the red counties on the border of this district, from where were you going to get votes to take you from 35% to 50%?

The 2 districts at current that are Republican-held but are challenge-able for the Democrats are the 2nd district of Jackie Walorski (South Bend-based) and the 5th of Hamilton County (open race in 2020).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#MajMin
They would draw a map like this if they were smart. 

[Idaho Conservative]

I'm going to cover most of these when we hit their turn on the state  megathread but here  my hotlist. I'm not going to count anyone who is sitting in a opposing seat like Brindisi since getting redistricting from red to red or blue to blue doesn't count as getting drawn out. Right now those with near-guaranteed ticking timers are:

- Jim Cooper (TN05) is the most vulnerable incumbent in Congress to the pen. R's didn't crack him back in 2010 cause they feared a dixiecrat revival...which never came. I did the  math on a personal map and even with Bresden's numbers there are ways that a Quad-cut gets all seats to Blackburn+10. A 5-way cut is also possible if nobody want too much of Nashville, while not compromising the protection for the Knoxville seats. Something similar would be happening in KY03 if Beshear didn't get elected last week, and can court-block the most outrageous proposals.

- Someones going down in VA, likely Rob Whitman (VA01) if dems have the cahones.

- One of the Dem's from the north jersey suburbs. There needs to be a second R seat up there to make everyone else safe, if NJ-07 flips in 2020 then the decision process gets easier. If some gets the ax congressionally they get a free ticket statewide.

- John Katko (NY24) if he survives 2020. He's facing Brindisi if Brindisi survives because NY22 is a guaranteed reapportionment, and Syracuse likely gets custody of Ithaca.

- IN01 (Open) if the GOP is feeling cocky. Similarly, MO05 (Emmanuel Cleaver). Both might survive because their remote location on the  map demands a major reshuffling of district lines. If/When MO05 gets cut it probably triggers ballot petitions for fair districts, and starts a process similar to what we saw in FL in 2016.

-IL12/13 are getting merged and one redistributed, but the reps may survive by getting stuck in other seats and having to primary other GOP'ers.

-Alex Mooney (WV02) is dead weight, always underpreforming his baseline massively. He's the easy GOP cut, especially now that WV03 seems a lock for the future.

- Someone loses the DvD primary in RI, unless they get to go statewide.

-AL02 (Open).

- Sanford Bishop (GA02) if the GOP increases AA power overall using ATL, even while making the 2nd red. They also need cleaver lawyers, because its the VRA.

-Inside California, someone from LA is losing their seat to redistribution to the OC/SD region. The new seat still will be blue though because of which areas are growing.

Someones losing their seat in MN, MI, PA, Long Island, and OH because reapportionment. But which seat is cut is a open question. Ohio is general is a black box this cycle.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/345f09d8-6559-4bf9-8705-3b570ddc4546
a good georgia map. 4 aa districts.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I'm going to cover most of these when we hit their turn on the state  megathread but here  my hotlist. I'm not going to count anyone who is sitting in a opposing seat like Brindisi since getting redistricting from red to red or blue to blue doesn't count as getting drawn out. Right now those with near-guaranteed ticking timers are:

- Jim Cooper (TN05) is the most vulnerable incumbent in Congress to the pen. R's didn't crack him back in 2010 cause they feared a dixiecrat revival...which never came. I did the  math on a personal map and even with Bresden's numbers there are ways that a Quad-cut gets all seats to Blackburn+10. A 5-way cut is also possible if nobody want too much of Nashville, while not compromising the protection for the Knoxville seats. Something similar would be happening in KY03 if Beshear didn't get elected last week, and can court-block the most outrageous proposals.

- Someones going down in VA, likely Rob Whitman (VA01) if dems have the cahones.

- One of the Dem's from the north jersey suburbs. There needs to be a second R seat up there to make everyone else safe, if NJ-07 flips in 2020 then the decision process gets easier. If some gets the ax congressionally they get a free ticket statewide.

- John Katko (NY24) if he survives 2020. He's facing Brindisi if Brindisi survives because NY22 is a guaranteed reapportionment, and Syracuse likely gets custody of Ithaca.

- IN01 (Open) if the GOP is feeling cocky. Similarly, MO05 (Emmanuel Cleaver). Both might survive because their remote location on the  map demands a major reshuffling of district lines. If/When MO05 gets cut it probably triggers ballot petitions for fair districts, and starts a process similar to what we saw in FL in 2016.

-IL12/13 are getting merged and one redistributed, but the reps may survive by getting stuck in other seats and having to primary other GOP'ers.

-Alex Mooney (WV02) is dead weight, always underpreforming his baseline massively. He's the easy GOP cut, especially now that WV03 seems a lock for the future.

- Someone loses the DvD primary in RI, unless they get to go statewide.

-AL02 (Open).

- Sanford Bishop (GA02) if the GOP increases AA power overall using ATL, even while making the 2nd red. They also need cleaver lawyers, because its the VRA.

-Inside California, someone from LA is losing their seat to redistribution to the OC/SD region. The new seat still will be blue though because of which areas are growing.

Someones losing their seat in MN, MI, PA, Long Island, and OH because reapportionment. But which seat is cut is a open question. Ohio is general is a black box this cycle.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/345f09d8-6559-4bf9-8705-3b570ddc4546
a good georgia map. 4 aa districts.

No, dumb and illegal map. You won't be able to get away with killing off the black belt district, the best scenario is to have 3 AA Atlanta districts, 1 AA Black Belt district, and 10 Safe R districts elsewhere.

[Idaho Conservative]

I'm going to cover most of these when we hit their turn on the state  megathread but here  my hotlist. I'm not going to count anyone who is sitting in a opposing seat like Brindisi since getting redistricting from red to red or blue to blue doesn't count as getting drawn out. Right now those with near-guaranteed ticking timers are:

- Jim Cooper (TN05) is the most vulnerable incumbent in Congress to the pen. R's didn't crack him back in 2010 cause they feared a dixiecrat revival...which never came. I did the  math on a personal map and even with Bresden's numbers there are ways that a Quad-cut gets all seats to Blackburn+10. A 5-way cut is also possible if nobody want too much of Nashville, while not compromising the protection for the Knoxville seats. Something similar would be happening in KY03 if Beshear didn't get elected last week, and can court-block the most outrageous proposals.

- Someones going down in VA, likely Rob Whitman (VA01) if dems have the cahones.

- One of the Dem's from the north jersey suburbs. There needs to be a second R seat up there to make everyone else safe, if NJ-07 flips in 2020 then the decision process gets easier. If some gets the ax congressionally they get a free ticket statewide.

- John Katko (NY24) if he survives 2020. He's facing Brindisi if Brindisi survives because NY22 is a guaranteed reapportionment, and Syracuse likely gets custody of Ithaca.

- IN01 (Open) if the GOP is feeling cocky. Similarly, MO05 (Emmanuel Cleaver). Both might survive because their remote location on the  map demands a major reshuffling of district lines. If/When MO05 gets cut it probably triggers ballot petitions for fair districts, and starts a process similar to what we saw in FL in 2016.

-IL12/13 are getting merged and one redistributed, but the reps may survive by getting stuck in other seats and having to primary other GOP'ers.

-Alex Mooney (WV02) is dead weight, always underpreforming his baseline massively. He's the easy GOP cut, especially now that WV03 seems a lock for the future.

- Someone loses the DvD primary in RI, unless they get to go statewide.

-AL02 (Open).

- Sanford Bishop (GA02) if the GOP increases AA power overall using ATL, even while making the 2nd red. They also need cleaver lawyers, because its the VRA.

-Inside California, someone from LA is losing their seat to redistribution to the OC/SD region. The new seat still will be blue though because of which areas are growing.

Someones losing their seat in MN, MI, PA, Long Island, and OH because reapportionment. But which seat is cut is a open question. Ohio is general is a black box this cycle.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/345f09d8-6559-4bf9-8705-3b570ddc4546
a good georgia map. 4 aa districts.

No, dumb and illegal map. You won't be able to get away with killing off the black belt district, the best scenario is to have 3 AA Atlanta districts, 1 AA Black Belt district, and 10 Safe R districts elsewhere.

lmao, illegal?  My map has 4 aa districts, doesn't matter that it is now in Atlanta instead of southern GA.  Also, Bishop's district isn't even vra protected, but I drew the 4th aa district in case it gets ruled GA needs a 4th district that is majority-minority. 

[Mr.Phips]

I'm going to cover most of these when we hit their turn on the state  megathread but here  my hotlist. I'm not going to count anyone who is sitting in a opposing seat like Brindisi since getting redistricting from red to red or blue to blue doesn't count as getting drawn out. Right now those with near-guaranteed ticking timers are:

- Jim Cooper (TN05) is the most vulnerable incumbent in Congress to the pen. R's didn't crack him back in 2010 cause they feared a dixiecrat revival...which never came. I did the  math on a personal map and even with Bresden's numbers there are ways that a Quad-cut gets all seats to Blackburn+10. A 5-way cut is also possible if nobody want too much of Nashville, while not compromising the protection for the Knoxville seats. Something similar would be happening in KY03 if Beshear didn't get elected last week, and can court-block the most outrageous proposals.

- Someones going down in VA, likely Rob Whitman (VA01) if dems have the cahones.

- One of the Dem's from the north jersey suburbs. There needs to be a second R seat up there to make everyone else safe, if NJ-07 flips in 2020 then the decision process gets easier. If some gets the ax congressionally they get a free ticket statewide.

- John Katko (NY24) if he survives 2020. He's facing Brindisi if Brindisi survives because NY22 is a guaranteed reapportionment, and Syracuse likely gets custody of Ithaca.

- IN01 (Open) if the GOP is feeling cocky. Similarly, MO05 (Emmanuel Cleaver). Both might survive because their remote location on the  map demands a major reshuffling of district lines. If/When MO05 gets cut it probably triggers ballot petitions for fair districts, and starts a process similar to what we saw in FL in 2016.

-IL12/13 are getting merged and one redistributed, but the reps may survive by getting stuck in other seats and having to primary other GOP'ers.

-Alex Mooney (WV02) is dead weight, always underpreforming his baseline massively. He's the easy GOP cut, especially now that WV03 seems a lock for the future.

- Someone loses the DvD primary in RI, unless they get to go statewide.

-AL02 (Open).

- Sanford Bishop (GA02) if the GOP increases AA power overall using ATL, even while making the 2nd red. They also need cleaver lawyers, because its the VRA.

-Inside California, someone from LA is losing their seat to redistribution to the OC/SD region. The new seat still will be blue though because of which areas are growing.

Someones losing their seat in MN, MI, PA, Long Island, and OH because reapportionment. But which seat is cut is a open question. Ohio is general is a black box this cycle.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/345f09d8-6559-4bf9-8705-3b570ddc4546
a good georgia map. 4 aa districts.

No, dumb and illegal map. You won't be able to get away with killing off the black belt district, the best scenario is to have 3 AA Atlanta districts, 1 AA Black Belt district, and 10 Safe R districts elsewhere.

lmao, illegal?  My map has 4 aa districts, doesn't matter that it is now in Atlanta instead of southern GA.  Also, Bishop's district isn't even vra protected, but I drew the 4th aa district in case it gets ruled GA needs a 4th district that is majority-minority.  

You don’t think splitting up the Black Belt would invite legal challenges?

Anyway, Republicans were the ones that wanted GA-02 to be a black belt district in the first place in 1992.

[Oryxslayer]

We talked about this in the Georgia thread, but here is the situation. I don't think we have ever seen Redistricting mappers destroy an AA opportunity/VRA seat at any level when the state was gaining AA pop, unless it was ordered by a court. Republicans in the past loved AA seats since they packed in Dem votes, and Dems are always happy to appease their coalition, though their AA seats are not as pack-y as the Republicans ones. Therefore, Georgia would stick out, and not in a good way. Cutting GA02 and trying for 11-3 would not just end up as a dummymander, it would likely be quickly invalidated by the courts. However, they really want to get rid of GA02: the rural parts of the belt are losing AA pop, the seat was not 50% AA to begin with, Bishop seems unlikely to continue serving in Congress after 2022 (health hopefully, but he may die unfortunately), and the surrounding districts are all blood red. The only way the GOP could potentially survive the case that will come if GA02 is cut up is if they improve AA opportunity in another part of the map. This would ideally be a 4th performing VRA seat in Atlanta.

Therefore, GA indirectly will have 4 AA seats at minimum in 2022. Cutting GA02 is suicidal unless it is replaced with a additional seat. Therefore GA will always have the three Atlanta AA seats, and either the belt or the 4th Atlanta seat. This also is not factoring in the possibility of a 5th Atlanta seat, likely a mixed opportunity seat somewhere in Gwinnett or a belt-to-atlanta AA seat. Such a seat would both improve the maps ability to survive the courts, and improve the odds of surviving a decade of democratic growth into the city and suburbs. The odds of that seat emerging likely depend upon how blue the GA elections are in 2020.