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December 11, 2019, 02:56:03 pm
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  Redistricting 2020, doomed incumbents
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Storr
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« Reply #25 on: November 14, 2019, 04:29:34 pm »

I hope NY democrats do everything they can to get rid of some of the NY pro-Trump flamethrowers like Stefanik and Zeldin.  I can't imagine their nonsense is in line with moderate NY voters.
I feel like Zeldin will succumb to trends eventually (if they continue their current course). Long Island is only getting bluer.
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« Reply #26 on: November 14, 2019, 05:25:18 pm »
« Edited: November 15, 2019, 08:47:25 am by Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ »

I hope NY democrats do everything they can to get rid of some of the NY pro-Trump flamethrowers like Stefanik and Zeldin.  I can't imagine their nonsense is in line with moderate NY voters.
I feel like Zeldin will succumb to trends eventually (if they continue their current course). Long Island is only getting bluer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_1st_congressional_district#Recent_election_results_in_statewide_races

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #27 on: November 14, 2019, 08:21:41 pm »

NY has a commission now.  It's a system where the legislature can edit within certain limits, but there definitely won't be an explicit MD style Dem gerrymander coming out of NY in 2021.  It's not even clear if the legislature would have enough say to pick whose seat(s) get cut.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #28 on: November 14, 2019, 10:49:04 pm »

If Democrats really care about stopping gerrymandering on a national scale they need to stop enacting these commissions in their states.  When one party is gerrymandering widely and the other is not, there is no incentive for the two sides to come together.  Of course Republicans don't want to stop gerrymandering when big democratic states like NY and CA have commissions but the entire south doesn't.

Democrats seem to live in this idealistic vacuum as if current elections don't have real world consequences that impact people right now.  Democrats should gerrymander wherever they can in 2020 and then let Republicans come to the table with a national compromise. 
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #29 on: November 15, 2019, 02:40:20 am »

I hope NY democrats do everything they can to get rid of some of the NY pro-Trump flamethrowers like Stefanik and Zeldin.  I can't imagine their nonsense is in line with moderate NY voters.
I feel like Zeldin will succumb to trends eventually (if they continue their current course). Long Island is only getting bluer.

What? 2016 was the first time LI went red as a whole since 1988, it's trending R
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #30 on: November 15, 2019, 10:02:41 am »

NY's commission is rather toothless when it comes to fair maps. The law was put into place seemingly with the expectation that the state senate and state house would continue to be divided via shenanigans.

The entire commission body is made up of people chosen by the legislature, or chosen by those chosen. This means that they know the partisanship of their state, and when commissions are set up like this they HEAVILY trend towards incumbent protection plans, in all but the most obvious COI situations. But you know, there are republicans at the table, so why not just ignore the commission. If the legislature rejects two commissions plans, they get their power back. Guess what, both chambers are now reliably blue.

It's a situation like Ohio where the maps trend towards fair, but can very easily be unfair if those holding the pen desire it, aka a black box.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #31 on: November 15, 2019, 06:51:51 pm »
« Edited: November 15, 2019, 09:18:12 pm by Skill and Chance »

NY's commission is rather toothless when it comes to fair maps. The law was put into place seemingly with the expectation that the state senate and state house would continue to be divided via shenanigans.

The entire commission body is made up of people chosen by the legislature, or chosen by those chosen. This means that they know the partisanship of their state, and when commissions are set up like this they HEAVILY trend towards incumbent protection plans, in all but the most obvious COI situations. But you know, there are republicans at the table, so why not just ignore the commission. If the legislature rejects two commissions plans, they get their power back. Guess what, both chambers are now reliably blue.

It's a situation like Ohio where the maps trend towards fair, but can very easily be unfair if those holding the pen desire it, aka a black box.

I didn't know it was that explicit that they can reject the commission and do as they please.  Similarly, R's have stated plans to do the same in Utah, where the legislature can ignore/even repeal the commission passed last year (though I have some doubt as to whether the next gov would sign off on that, they are currently veto-proof by a substantial margin).  With that in mind, this is the current national state of affairs.  50% Blue = Republican controlled process, Red = Democrat controlled process, 60% Blue or Red shading = veto-proof majority for that party, Green = split control, 60% Gold = commission with the final say, 30% Gold =  significant constitutional/judicial restrictions:



Using ballot initiatives and state supreme court elections alone (and flipping at least 2/125 seats in the Kansas lower house+JBE and enough D/I legislative seats holding on tomorrow+MN Senate R's and Sununu holding on next year), it would be possible to achieve this by the mid 2020's:




That would get us to the point where gerrymandering basically can't determine the nationwide US House outcome and would basically be a historical curiosity preserved in a few Eastern states.



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Nyvin
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« Reply #32 on: November 15, 2019, 08:35:43 pm »

I don't think Oregon has any commission, it's just a bunch of state laws the legislature has to follow.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #33 on: November 15, 2019, 09:00:33 pm »

I don't think Oregon has any commission, it's just a bunch of state laws the legislature has to follow.

Yeah  Oregon has normal legislative powers but some serious rules and restrictions regarding what can be drawn. What gerrys do occur are rather limited. I expect dems to try and push the envelope though since they now have supermajorities.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #34 on: November 15, 2019, 09:13:11 pm »
« Edited: November 15, 2019, 09:17:48 pm by Skill and Chance »

I don't think Oregon has any commission, it's just a bunch of state laws the legislature has to follow.

Yeah  Oregon has normal legislative powers but some serious rules and restrictions regarding what can be drawn. What gerrys do occur are rather limited. I expect dems to try and push the envelope though since they now have supermajorities.

Yes, OR on the first map was an error.  It is currently under legislative (Dem) control with the restrictions you mentioned, but there is a group pursuing a commission initiative for the 2020 ballot.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #35 on: November 15, 2019, 09:23:06 pm »

I don't think Oregon has any commission, it's just a bunch of state laws the legislature has to follow.

Yeah  Oregon has normal legislative powers but some serious rules and restrictions regarding what can be drawn. What gerrys do occur are rather limited. I expect dems to try and push the envelope though since they now have supermajorities.

Yes, OR on the first map was an error.  It is currently under legislative (Dem) control with the restrictions you mentioned, but there is a group pursuing a commission initiative for the 2020 ballot.

Which is good. If you don't have a commission, harsh and defined restrictions often work just as well, but only just. Which is why Ohio is so unpredictable this cycle, the finite number and restrictions on which counties can be cut are arguably more important than the commission itself which can be ignored if the legislature really wishes.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #36 on: November 15, 2019, 09:26:04 pm »

One fear in Wisconsin is that there have been rumblings that the Republican state legislature could try to pass redistricting via resolution, bypass the governor, and then expect the conservative State Supreme Court to declare it legal. This was attempted either in the 50's or 60's and it was rejected by the court, but I could see the current make up of the court overturning that precedent.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #37 on: November 16, 2019, 05:40:13 am »

PA: Anything north/west of SEPA and the Lancaster/York/Dauphin region is up for grabs. My take is PA09, but could be 15, could be 12, who knows.

Pennsylvania should be pretty interesting. I think it's a fairly safe assumption the the current map will be the baseline for the next decade considering very likely divided government and the PA Supreme Court with a Democratic majority (and very likely to maintain precedent). My first thought looking at the current map would've been PA-12, but kind of mentally re-configuring the map sort of merges it with PA-09 (with the surrounding districts all taking is some new territory from the two).

The problem for Democrats in PA is that by eliminating an R seat (which pretty much has to happen considering population trends and the geography of the state), the non-SEPA incumbents will get tougher seats. PA-18 would have to expand even if PA stayed at 18, likely forcing PA-17 to get a lot more of Butler County. PA-08 probably moves a couple notches rightward. PA-16 moving eastward takes it off the table for Democrats if it was ever really there. PA-01 is probably the only competitive seat in the state to move leftward, probably a couple points at the expense of PA-04. I admit I haven't tried to draw the state with 17 districts yet because of intrastate population trends, just looking over it in my mind.


Two other points:
-OH: I'm only interested in the new constraints on how lines can be drawn since I think that's all that will be relevant. I expect Republicans to ram through their own 4-year plan. However, the constraints are very relevant as to how far they can go. Doesn't the language of the new amendment basically doom Chabot? I'm not sure what they could conceivably do to Hamilton County, but at minimum, Cincinnati cannot be split. I also want to note that somehow Democrats picked up 2 seats on the OH Supreme Court. If they do that again, they could get a majority on the court and the redistricting amendment gives the OH Supreme Court exclusive original jurisdiction on the matter.

-MD: I'm surprised no one's mentioned Maryland as a possibility as I think Democrats could go for an 8-0 map. Hogan may be the governor, but Democrats far exceed the 3/5 supermajority necessary to override if necessary. The map is unnecessarily hideous in part because Dutch Ruppersberger wants two distant military installations in his district. I'm not sure why MD-03 is such a monstrosity. The balance between partisan allegiance and parochial interests will probably determine the fate of MD-01 (i.e. Andy Harris).
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #38 on: November 16, 2019, 08:18:25 am »

Quote from: politicallefty

-MD: I'm surprised no one's mentioned Maryland as a possibility as I think Democrats could go for an 8-0 map. Hogan may be the governor, but Democrats far exceed the 3/5 supermajority necessary to override if necessary. The map is unnecessarily hideous in part because Dutch Ruppersberger wants two distant military installations in his district. I'm not sure why MD-03 is such a monstrosity. The balance between partisan allegiance and parochial interests will probably determine the fate of MD-01 (i.e. Andy Harris).

MD is one of the few states that I already have an individual thread going on, so you can check that out. The short answer though is that it feels like 7-1 is going to stay, but now feature 3 AA seats instead of 2.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #39 on: November 16, 2019, 08:45:01 am »

Quote from: politicallefty

-MD: I'm surprised no one's mentioned Maryland as a possibility as I think Democrats could go for an 8-0 map. Hogan may be the governor, but Democrats far exceed the 3/5 supermajority necessary to override if necessary. The map is unnecessarily hideous in part because Dutch Ruppersberger wants two distant military installations in his district. I'm not sure why MD-03 is such a monstrosity. The balance between partisan allegiance and parochial interests will probably determine the fate of MD-01 (i.e. Andy Harris).

MD is one of the few states that I already have an individual thread going on, so you can check that out. The short answer though is that it feels like 7-1 is going to stay, but now feature 3 AA seats instead of 2.

Couldn’t they just shift territory between MD-04 and MD-05 to make the latter black majority?
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Sol
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« Reply #40 on: November 16, 2019, 09:32:11 am »

Quote from: politicallefty

-MD: I'm surprised no one's mentioned Maryland as a possibility as I think Democrats could go for an 8-0 map. Hogan may be the governor, but Democrats far exceed the 3/5 supermajority necessary to override if necessary. The map is unnecessarily hideous in part because Dutch Ruppersberger wants two distant military installations in his district. I'm not sure why MD-03 is such a monstrosity. The balance between partisan allegiance and parochial interests will probably determine the fate of MD-01 (i.e. Andy Harris).

MD is one of the few states that I already have an individual thread going on, so you can check that out. The short answer though is that it feels like 7-1 is going to stay, but now feature 3 AA seats instead of 2.

Couldn’t they just shift territory between MD-04 and MD-05 to make the latter black majority?

Rumor has it Steny Hoyer doesn't want a Black-majority district.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #41 on: November 16, 2019, 09:53:39 am »

Quote from: politicallefty

-MD: I'm surprised no one's mentioned Maryland as a possibility as I think Democrats could go for an 8-0 map. Hogan may be the governor, but Democrats far exceed the 3/5 supermajority necessary to override if necessary. The map is unnecessarily hideous in part because Dutch Ruppersberger wants two distant military installations in his district. I'm not sure why MD-03 is such a monstrosity. The balance between partisan allegiance and parochial interests will probably determine the fate of MD-01 (i.e. Andy Harris).

MD is one of the few states that I already have an individual thread going on, so you can check that out. The short answer though is that it feels like 7-1 is going to stay, but now feature 3 AA seats instead of 2.

Couldn’t they just shift territory between MD-04 and MD-05 to make the latter black majority?

Rumor has it Steny Hoyer doesn't want a Black-majority district.

He may retire by then.  Even as currently drawn, an African American would have an excellent chance at winning a primary in the district without Hoyer running.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #42 on: November 16, 2019, 09:56:45 am »
« Edited: November 16, 2019, 09:59:48 am by Oryxslayer »

Quote from: politicallefty

-MD: I'm surprised no one's mentioned Maryland as a possibility as I think Democrats could go for an 8-0 map. Hogan may be the governor, but Democrats far exceed the 3/5 supermajority necessary to override if necessary. The map is unnecessarily hideous in part because Dutch Ruppersberger wants two distant military installations in his district. I'm not sure why MD-03 is such a monstrosity. The balance between partisan allegiance and parochial interests will probably determine the fate of MD-01 (i.e. Andy Harris).

MD is one of the few states that I already have an individual thread going on, so you can check that out. The short answer though is that it feels like 7-1 is going to stay, but now feature 3 AA seats instead of 2.

Couldn’t they just shift territory between MD-04 and MD-05 to make the latter black majority?

Yes, but who would Bus a potential house leader? He's either losing a primary or getting a weird seat in 2020. But PG is large enough for 2 AA seats to draw from it, even with Boyer kicking around. Far easier to Bus sarbanes who has first right of refusal on gov and Cardin replacement. Once again, this is all discussed in the MD thread here.
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Sol
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« Reply #43 on: November 16, 2019, 10:07:24 am »

In 2010 Hoyer IIRC also insisted on having College Park in his district--which if he continues to fuss in 2020 would make the 3rd black district v. ugly.
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« Reply #44 on: November 16, 2019, 11:32:47 am »

PA: Anything north/west of SEPA and the Lancaster/York/Dauphin region is up for grabs. My take is PA09, but could be 15, could be 12, who knows.

Pennsylvania should be pretty interesting. I think it's a fairly safe assumption the the current map will be the baseline for the next decade considering very likely divided government and the PA Supreme Court with a Democratic majority (and very likely to maintain precedent). My first thought looking at the current map would've been PA-12, but kind of mentally re-configuring the map sort of merges it with PA-09 (with the surrounding districts all taking is some new territory from the two).

The problem for Democrats in PA is that by eliminating an R seat (which pretty much has to happen considering population trends and the geography of the state), the non-SEPA incumbents will get tougher seats. PA-18 would have to expand even if PA stayed at 18, likely forcing PA-17 to get a lot more of Butler County. PA-08 probably moves a couple notches rightward. PA-16 moving eastward takes it off the table for Democrats if it was ever really there. PA-01 is probably the only competitive seat in the state to move leftward, probably a couple points at the expense of PA-04. I admit I haven't tried to draw the state with 17 districts yet because of intrastate population trends, just looking over it in my mind.


Two other points:
-OH: I'm only interested in the new constraints on how lines can be drawn since I think that's all that will be relevant. I expect Republicans to ram through their own 4-year plan. However, the constraints are very relevant as to how far they can go. Doesn't the language of the new amendment basically doom Chabot? I'm not sure what they could conceivably do to Hamilton County, but at minimum, Cincinnati cannot be split. I also want to note that somehow Democrats picked up 2 seats on the OH Supreme Court. If they do that again, they could get a majority on the court and the redistricting amendment gives the OH Supreme Court exclusive original jurisdiction on the matter.

-MD: I'm surprised no one's mentioned Maryland as a possibility as I think Democrats could go for an 8-0 map. Hogan may be the governor, but Democrats far exceed the 3/5 supermajority necessary to override if necessary. The map is unnecessarily hideous in part because Dutch Ruppersberger wants two distant military installations in his district. I'm not sure why MD-03 is such a monstrosity. The balance between partisan allegiance and parochial interests will probably determine the fate of MD-01 (i.e. Andy Harris).

Cincinatti can't be split but Hamilton can, Take Cincinnati and immediately  move east for Ohio 1st and use the rest of Hamilton + north for the OH 2. Its possible Chabot can be saved although unlikely that they do this out of fear for a stronger redistricting amendment.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #45 on: November 16, 2019, 01:36:42 pm »

The Indiana GOP would be stupid to try and destroy the Marion County or Lake County districts.

For all the talk about gerrymanders, Rokita when he was Secretary of State and drew the districts made them really common sensical drawn districts when you look at a map. The number of counties split is incredibly minimal, which if you're an anti-gerrymandering individual, is a good measure to have. My district the 3rd has 2 split counties for the whole district. I know the Democrat that lost in the 3rd (NE Indiana - includes the whole of Fort Wayne) in 2018 said in her defeat speech "always going to be difficult with gerrymandered districts", my response was "take a look at the red counties on the border of this district, from where were you going to get votes to take you from 35% to 50%?

The 2 districts at current that are Republican-held but are challenge-able for the Democrats are the 2nd district of Jackie Walorski (South Bend-based) and the 5th of Hamilton County (open race in 2020).

This annoys me as well. Gerrymandering has become a catch all excuse for every defeated Democrat. In some cases it is correct and there are indeed several states (declining number thanks to courts) that are R gerrymanders. However, just because a state is gerrymandered doesn't mean your seat is the one that is affected. In fact your seat might be made closer because of the gerrymandering.

If NC-09 was still centered in the Charlotte suburbs and exurbs, Pittenger would still be in  Congress and winning general elections with ease. NC-08 was the seat that was gerrymandered to become more Republican.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #46 on: November 16, 2019, 05:33:36 pm »

The Indiana GOP would be stupid to try and destroy the Marion County or Lake County districts.

For all the talk about gerrymanders, Rokita when he was Secretary of State and drew the districts made them really common sensical drawn districts when you look at a map. The number of counties split is incredibly minimal, which if you're an anti-gerrymandering individual, is a good measure to have. My district the 3rd has 2 split counties for the whole district. I know the Democrat that lost in the 3rd (NE Indiana - includes the whole of Fort Wayne) in 2018 said in her defeat speech "always going to be difficult with gerrymandered districts", my response was "take a look at the red counties on the border of this district, from where were you going to get votes to take you from 35% to 50%?

The 2 districts at current that are Republican-held but are challenge-able for the Democrats are the 2nd district of Jackie Walorski (South Bend-based) and the 5th of Hamilton County (open race in 2020).

This annoys me as well. Gerrymandering has become a catch all excuse for every defeated Democrat. In some cases it is correct and there are indeed several states (declining number thanks to courts) that are R gerrymanders. However, just because a state is gerrymandered doesn't mean your seat is the one that is affected. In fact your seat might be made closer because of the gerrymandering.

If NC-09 was still centered in the Charlotte suburbs and exurbs, Pittenger would still be in  Congress and winning general elections with ease. NC-08 was the seat that was gerrymandered to become more Republican.

This is true and it will be hugely hypocritical if VA legislative Dems don't act to end gerrymandering now that they have the chance.  It is, after all, impossible to force fair maps any other way in a state  with no initiative/referendum provisions and state judges chosen by the legislature alone.

I really like the idea of elected state courts getting involved in redistricting though, even if it arguably just moves the partisan battle to a different election, because at least in states where the highest court is elected statewide (or chosen from districts that aren't drawn by the legislature), it takes away the conflict of interest where the legislative majority is choosing its own voters.  It's equivalent to subjecting gerrymandered maps to a statewide referendum.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #47 on: November 18, 2019, 11:23:09 am »

Both of those Indiana districts are horrendous. In the one where Elkhart and St. Joseph are split, I'm actually separated from the majority of my county!
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #48 on: December 10, 2019, 08:30:28 pm »

Regarding potential impact on 2021 redistricting from state supreme courts:

CT: gubernatorial appointment with state senate confirmation and term limits, Malloy (D) filled 6 of the 7 seats during his 2 terms as governor*
FL: appointment process functionally controlled by the governor, retention elections every 10 years (an incumbent has never lost), history of being highly ideological, currently 6 Right/1 Left after 3 DeSantis appointments, was 5 Left/2 Right when it struck down Republican-drawn congressional lines under the 2010 Fair Districts amendment, expect significantly more leniency this time.
KY: nonpartisan elections in districts, history of active involvement in redistricting, it struck down the 2011 state legislative redistricting and recently made high profile 5/2 decision striking down Governor Bevin's teacher pension reform law
LA: partisan elections in districts, 5R/2D, 10 year terms and often uncontested, one R is a former D**
NC: statewide partisan elections, 6D/1R, with 2 D seats up in 2020***
NM: complex system with statewide partisan elections 1st time, then a retention vote where they need to get approval from a merit panel and then win 57% statewide to keep their seat, currently 4D/1R, 3 of the seats are up in 2020, 2 Dems in partisan elections and the one Republican in a retention election
OH: statewide de facto partisan elections, 5R/2D, with 2 R seats up in 2020
PA: partisan 1st election, then retention elections every 10 years (only one justice has ever lost), currently 5D/2R, next open seat due to mandatory retirement is an R in 2021, then a D in 2023
TX: statewide partisan elections, 9R/0D, with 3 seats up every even numbered year
WI: statewide non-partisan, but historically highly ideological elections, 5 Right/2 Left, with one right wing seat up in 2020 (on primary day), next seat up is in 2023 and also from right wing of the court

*The CT constitution sends state legislative redistricting directly to the state supreme court if the legislative proces deadlocks
**The LA constitution sends state legislative (but not congressional) redistricting directly to the state supreme court if the legislature cannot agree on a plan or cannot override the governor's veto of the plan they passed, which is likely to happen now that JBE has been reelected
***The NC constitution sets a maximum of 9 seats on the court, meaning that if one party controls the court 4/3 and the other party controls the legislature and the governor's office, they could pass a law adding 2 seats, making the court 5/4 in their favor after the governor fills them.  Republicans already threatened to do this in the lame duck in 2016, but then Democrats won a 5/2 majority, making it a moot point.  This could come back in play if Republicans flip the governorship and defeat the 2 Democratic justices up next year.  Packing the court in 2021 would effectively give Republicans unilateral control over redistricting again. 
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« Reply #49 on: December 10, 2019, 08:50:58 pm »
« Edited: December 10, 2019, 08:54:22 pm by Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ »

Also Illinois Supreme court has a small chance of flipping. Theres two seats up in 2020. Illinois supreme court works with 7 seats total with 3 going to one district which is Cook and 4 more districts for the rest of the state. The cook district is Titanium D of course.
District 5 is southern IL and +30 Trump which is Titanium R, District 4 is also Safe R at +19 Trump with it covering Central Il.

But these are the remaining districts. District 2 and 3 are more competetive. District 2 is obama clinton Pritzker but because of the suburbs it was only narrowly obama and Pritzker although Clinton won it by 9. However it has a GOP incumbent currently for its district.
District 4 is Obama Trump at +3 obama and +5 Trump. It includes Will county which is suburban but isn't really moving left unlike Kane,Dupage, or Lake.
A D incumbent holds this seat. So if the GOP somehow holds onto district 2 while flipping 3 they could get a majority in IL. Also both district 2 and 3s incumbents could retire. The important thing to note about district 3 is that even if its obama trump its not really ancestrally D.
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