Redistricting 2020, doomed incumbents

[Nyvin]

In Illinois whoever ends up in IL-3 after 2020 might be screwed in 2022 since it's almost certainly going to be made a hispanic majority seat.

In Pennsylvania, it probably makes the most sense to divide up either PA-13 or PA-15 between east and west.   

In Minnesota I don't see any other possibility other than chopping up MN-7, it's already the least populated.   Assuming MN loses a seat obviously.

A tough one to call is Michigan.    I'd probably predict the commission remakes MI-5 to include Flint with both Saginaw and Midland, and move Bay City in with the Thumb district (MI-10) since the entire area is losing population.  After that it's probably one of the mid-northern districts to get the axe (MI-2 or MI-4).

[Nyvin]

Yeah, the INGOP is much more likely to create 2 D vote sink seats than to carve up one of the seats. Otherwise, I mostly agree with the list given by Oryxslayer.

Though IN-05 is probably going to be pushed to the right somehow, and maybe also IN-02.

Its super easy to push IN 5 to the right, just move IN 7th north lol. Again its perfectly possible for a relatively clean 8-1 map. https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/11/indiana-8-1-2022-map/
maybe  1 district could flip in a wave year but even then its still back to a 7-2. If it goes back to a 6-3 the GOP was completely screwed that year lol. I will cal the Indiana GOP idiots if they don't draw an 8-1 when a 9-0 is completely possible. (I am just speaking from an electoral perspective just like I would call the VA D's idiots if they dont draw a 4th NOVA seat.)

That 1st district is a disaster and would never stand up to scrutiny.

One thing Rokita did setting up the teens districts and I really like is he kind of based districts around where the TV stations were based at. For example, in the 3rd, the counties are all in the Fort Wayne media market, so you only have to buy TV ads in the Fort Wayne media market. Your 1st district, to touch the whole district you'd have to buy ad time in Chicago, Lafayette, and Indianapolis. That's brutal unless you're the richest candidate.

Also, your 3rd is too small. You've added Elkhart County to offset removing Whitley, Huntington, Adams, Wells, Jay, and parts of Kosciusko and Blackford. Can't think that's enough people.

1, 4, and 5 on that map are all horrendous.

[Nyvin]

I don't think Oregon has any commission, it's just a bunch of state laws the legislature has to follow.

[Nyvin]

Also Illinois Supreme court has a small chance of flipping. Theres two seats up in 2020. Illinois supreme court works with 7 seats total with 3 going to one district which is Cook and 4 more districts for the rest of the state. The cook district is Titanium D of course.
District 5 is southern IL and +30 Trump which is Titanium R, District 4 is also Safe R at +19 Trump with it covering Central Il.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1082390573665972225
But these are the remaining districts. District 2 and 3 are more competetive. District 2 is obama clinton Pritzker but because of the suburbs it was only narrowly obama and Pritzker although Clinton won it by 9. However it has a GOP incumbent currently for its district.
District 4 is Obama Trump at +3 obama and +5 Trump. It includes Will county which is suburban but isn't really moving left unlike Kane,Dupage, or Lake.
A D incumbent holds this seat. So if the GOP somehow holds onto district 2 while flipping 3 they could get a majority in IL. Also both district 2 and 3s incumbents could retire. The important thing to note about district 3 is that even if its obama trump its not really ancestrally D.

It's weird how that map is even allowed.   The two southern districts are both severely underpopulated by at least 500k.   District 4 in particular barely has 10% of the state's population despite have 1/7 of the court seats.   

District 2 is also crazy overpopulated,  it has 3.2 mil people when an evenly divided district would have 1.8 mil.

[Nyvin]

Why did this become a Minnesota redistricting thread?

I actually agree.   It'd be nice if a mod separated all the MN post in this into a special Minnesota redistricting thread.