Redistricting 2020, doomed incumbents

[Mr.Phips]

-MD: I'm surprised no one's mentioned Maryland as a possibility as I think Democrats could go for an 8-0 map. Hogan may be the governor, but Democrats far exceed the 3/5 supermajority necessary to override if necessary. The map is unnecessarily hideous in part because Dutch Ruppersberger wants two distant military installations in his district. I'm not sure why MD-03 is such a monstrosity. The balance between partisan allegiance and parochial interests will probably determine the fate of MD-01 (i.e. Andy Harris).

MD is one of the few states that I already have an individual thread going on, so you can check that out. The short answer though is that it feels like 7-1 is going to stay, but now feature 3 AA seats instead of 2.

Couldn’t they just shift territory between MD-04 and MD-05 to make the latter black majority?

[Mr.Phips]

-MD: I'm surprised no one's mentioned Maryland as a possibility as I think Democrats could go for an 8-0 map. Hogan may be the governor, but Democrats far exceed the 3/5 supermajority necessary to override if necessary. The map is unnecessarily hideous in part because Dutch Ruppersberger wants two distant military installations in his district. I'm not sure why MD-03 is such a monstrosity. The balance between partisan allegiance and parochial interests will probably determine the fate of MD-01 (i.e. Andy Harris).

MD is one of the few states that I already have an individual thread going on, so you can check that out. The short answer though is that it feels like 7-1 is going to stay, but now feature 3 AA seats instead of 2.

Couldn’t they just shift territory between MD-04 and MD-05 to make the latter black majority?

Rumor has it Steny Hoyer doesn't want a Black-majority district.

He may retire by then.  Even as currently drawn, an African American would have an excellent chance at winning a primary in the district without Hoyer running.

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting question is Utah with the commission which the legislature can ignore but what if the governor feels the need to have good government and refuses a gerrymander with some moderates in the legislature?

Hmmm... Huntsman in particular seems unlikely to sign a commission override bill if he is the next governor, but it may not matter.  Republicans have nearly 80% of the seats in both chambers (and only 1 seat flipped in each last year), so they can lose a lot of votes and still do a veto override. 

The optics of repealing the commission outright would be really, really bad.  I don't think that is what will happen.  It's more likely that they edit the commission's criteria/procedure in a way that would lead to a more Republican-leaning map.  For example, removing the COI criterion, or removing the  municipality (SLC) splitting provision but keeping the minimal county splits one.   

What would the partisan numbers be on a SLC district that only included the most Republican parts of the county?

[Mr.Phips]

I'm going to cover most of these when we hit their turn on the state  megathread but here  my hotlist. I'm not going to count anyone who is sitting in a opposing seat like Brindisi since getting redistricting from red to red or blue to blue doesn't count as getting drawn out. Right now those with near-guaranteed ticking timers are:

- Jim Cooper (TN05) is the most vulnerable incumbent in Congress to the pen. R's didn't crack him back in 2010 cause they feared a dixiecrat revival...which never came. I did the  math on a personal map and even with Bresden's numbers there are ways that a Quad-cut gets all seats to Blackburn+10. A 5-way cut is also possible if nobody want too much of Nashville, while not compromising the protection for the Knoxville seats. Something similar would be happening in KY03 if Beshear didn't get elected last week, and can court-block the most outrageous proposals.

- Someones going down in VA, likely Rob Whitman (VA01) if dems have the cahones.

- One of the Dem's from the north jersey suburbs. There needs to be a second R seat up there to make everyone else safe, if NJ-07 flips in 2020 then the decision process gets easier. If some gets the ax congressionally they get a free ticket statewide.

- John Katko (NY24) if he survives 2020. He's facing Brindisi if Brindisi survives because NY22 is a guaranteed reapportionment, and Syracuse likely gets custody of Ithaca.

- IN01 (Open) if the GOP is feeling cocky. Similarly, MO05 (Emmanuel Cleaver). Both might survive because their remote location on the  map demands a major reshuffling of district lines. If/When MO05 gets cut it probably triggers ballot petitions for fair districts, and starts a process similar to what we saw in FL in 2016.

-IL12/13 are getting merged and one redistributed, but the reps may survive by getting stuck in other seats and having to primary other GOP'ers.

-Alex Mooney (WV02) is dead weight, always underpreforming his baseline massively. He's the easy GOP cut, especially now that WV03 seems a lock for the future.

- Someone loses the DvD primary in RI, unless they get to go statewide.

-AL02 (Open).

- Sanford Bishop (GA02) if the GOP increases AA power overall using ATL, even while making the 2nd red. They also need cleaver lawyers, because its the VRA.

-Inside California, someone from LA is losing their seat to redistribution to the OC/SD region. The new seat still will be blue though because of which areas are growing.

Someones losing their seat in MN, MI, PA, Long Island, and OH because reapportionment. But which seat is cut is a open question. Ohio is general is a black box this cycle.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/345f09d8-6559-4bf9-8705-3b570ddc4546
a good georgia map. 4 aa districts.

No, dumb and illegal map. You won't be able to get away with killing off the black belt district, the best scenario is to have 3 AA Atlanta districts, 1 AA Black Belt district, and 10 Safe R districts elsewhere.

lmao, illegal?  My map has 4 aa districts, doesn't matter that it is now in Atlanta instead of southern GA.  Also, Bishop's district isn't even vra protected, but I drew the 4th aa district in case it gets ruled GA needs a 4th district that is majority-minority.  

You don’t think splitting up the Black Belt would invite legal challenges?

Anyway, Republicans were the ones that wanted GA-02 to be a black belt district in the first place in 1992.