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mileslunn
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« on: November 20, 2019, 02:57:12 am »

With the far right rising and even appearing in countries like Germany and Spain where it didn't exist a decade ago while now leading in Italy and competitive in Finland and Sweden, anybody know how to push it back or will it result in one actually winning?  Denmark was successful by the Social Democrats combining tough immigration policies with a more generous welfare state so would a policy like that elsewhere be successful or was that unique to Denmark?
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Laki
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2019, 08:50:22 am »

Not be naive on immigration and crime. Left-wing need to become harsh on crime and immigration and terrorism. Currently they're too naive and society is changing. Social democrats need to adapt.

Secondly, social democrats are losing older voters towards right-wing parties, but have mostly an old base because social democrats and christian democrats were known to be the foundation of the states after WWII. But their young voters and new voters are increasingly looking for alternatives - mainly because of neoliberalism and weird coalitions (like the VVD - PvdA one in the Netherlands) towards Green and far-left parties. Since climate change became a huge issue, the green parties overall have grown in Europe.

Currently the far-right has taken that position of being in favour of the welfare state combined with tough immigration policies. In Belgium, i know many older social democrat voters who now vote for far-right parties. That's their problem.
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Laki
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2019, 08:55:15 am »
« Edited: November 20, 2019, 09:04:35 am by Laki »

One example is my PS4 got stolen. I know who did it, and i have the serial code. But the police isn't making work of it. It's not a priority issue to them, and it's been weeks i've heard about them. That's exactly the kind of frustration and anger that causes people to move to the right. People feel like people can commit crimes and get away with it. And if they get caught, they usually get minor punishments.

Other example, a friend of my mom sits in a wheelchair, can't find a social house or help from the society (costs for her wheelchair) because she believes immigrants and refugees get their help first. One other friend of me said that 14 of the 15 people waiting before him all had immigrant names on the waiting list for a social house. They both vote Vlaams Belang. My dad is poor and also votes Vlaams Belang because he believes cabinet members earn too much, while they have a difficult time with four kinds to end the month in the positive net, while a good friend of him's does nothing and earn a wage for nothing, because she's "sick" while she isn't, and she's even too lazy to do her own household. Her man has do to do it all, working and doing the household. It's a messy place. Society in general is unfair and it frustrates people. Hard working people have not too many benefits over not hard working people, and i'm one of those, since i'm also mentally ill. For me personally life is expensive as well and i get an income of 1000 euros without working, but my costs for doctor and things like that are also very high and now i need to keep attention to my finances. The gap between the rich and the poor is rising. I don't want to live from a disability income, that's why i intend to study. The weird thing is that i am not allowed to study while under a disability income, that i get no benefits for studying and that study costs are around 5000 euros, so it's not really encouraged. It's like society saying we prefer you to stay on a disability income and they have a hard time activating people.

That's why i want to cut social security for those who don't need it, and want to spend it on healthcare and education which is far better than what we have now. Meanwhile social democrats currently don't have really an ideology, change nothing and misinterprete a welfare society for all, including immigrants which don't work at all. Given that, a visit to a doctor costs me 1 euro, while hospitalization costs are also relatively cheap, still expensive (but instead of 4000+ euros, i have to pay like 300 euros)
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Laki
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2019, 09:18:05 am »
« Edited: November 20, 2019, 09:21:54 am by Laki »

My entire family (both real-life dad and real-life mom) is full of ex social democrats who now vote for far-right candidates. They don't believe far-right is a bad thing, think the media is portraying them as bad, while seeing them providing good solutions to immigration and social security while keeping the social safety net, but they're not aware of their socially conservative agenda, or ignore it. And let's face it, society is much more liberal than the people in fact are.

Do i have another example, yes. People that often go to Brussels see a lot of immigrants there, begging for money, and pickpocketing. Everytime i go to Brussels, in my short way i'm there, i meet 20 beggers, meet beggers on the train who leave a note why they need some money, or talk to you saying their girlfriend is pregnant and that they don't have money in broken english or french.

Or on our border with France, many people do robberies in the border area, and leave through France, and they're not able to track them down because France is a different country, and the Lille Metropolitian Area also has a lot of immigrants. Police needs to communicate directly with French police, but for some reason this doesn't happen. People feel mostly powerless against the evolving society. Everyone has some kind of reason to be frustrated or angered, and baby-boomers or Gen X voters that often voted social democrat their entire life long until 1991 or later, when Vlaams Belang broke through now vote Vlaams Belang. In 1991, called "Black Sunday", R.O.S.S.E.M. and Vlaams Belang broke through. R.O.S.S.E.M is called radical reformers fighting for a fairer society, and is in fact libertarian. The party broke completely after corruption allegations against billionaire Jean-Pierre Van Rossem who also owned a F1 team than and a shares company directed towards lighting up people, mainly because he was too lazy to study, and decided that was a better way to get money quickly. In later interviews, he often laughed with that. Than we got JMDD, judo coach of belgian medal winners on Olympic Games, who is also a right-wing populist libertarian, who said the "cordon sanitaire" against Vlaams Belang was unfair. The cordon sanitaire was an agreement of all parties to promise not to ever govern with Vlaams Belang, despite how they were growing election after election and became the biggest party, but they implemented their ideas indirectly anyway. Vlaams Belang than dropped down when a new right-wing party arised, but now are rising again, until second black sunday this year in which the communist parties, the far-right parties and in the south the greens rose a lot, and all other parties lost heavily, because people were disappointed with the direction of N-VA but N-VA stole votes from CD&V and Open VLD after good governing, to make up for the losses to their far-right. And now we are in a stall as PS and N-VA, a conservative-liberal and a social democrat party are doomed to govern together, while PS voters voted PS because they don't want a government with N-VA and were threatened by their left PTB (communists), and N-VA get threatened by their right, which makes it hard to make confessions. Anyway, we will have a government no-one wants, and that is ideologically hard to create, while the far sides continue to grow, or we will have snap elections. We are already around 150-200 days without a government. Our record is 589 days without a government though.

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Omega21
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2019, 03:40:15 pm »

One example is my PS4 got stolen. I know who did it, and i have the serial code. But the police isn't making work of it. It's not a priority issue to them, and it's been weeks i've heard about them. That's exactly the kind of frustration and anger that causes people to move to the right. People feel like people can commit crimes and get away with it. And if they get caught, they usually get minor punishments.

Other example, a friend of my mom sits in a wheelchair, can't find a social house or help from the society (costs for her wheelchair) because she believes immigrants and refugees get their help first. One other friend of me said that 14 of the 15 people waiting before him all had immigrant names on the waiting list for a social house. They both vote Vlaams Belang. My dad is poor and also votes Vlaams Belang because he believes cabinet members earn too much, while they have a difficult time with four kinds to end the month in the positive net, while a good friend of him's does nothing and earn a wage for nothing, because she's "sick" while she isn't, and she's even too lazy to do her own household. Her man has do to do it all, working and doing the household. It's a messy place. Society in general is unfair and it frustrates people. Hard working people have not too many benefits over not hard working people, and i'm one of those, since i'm also mentally ill. For me personally life is expensive as well and i get an income of 1000 euros without working, but my costs for doctor and things like that are also very high and now i need to keep attention to my finances. The gap between the rich and the poor is rising. I don't want to live from a disability income, that's why i intend to study. The weird thing is that i am not allowed to study while under a disability income, that i get no benefits for studying and that study costs are around 5000 euros, so it's not really encouraged. It's like society saying we prefer you to stay on a disability income and they have a hard time activating people.

That's why i want to cut social security for those who don't need it, and want to spend it on healthcare and education which is far better than what we have now. Meanwhile social democrats currently don't have really an ideology, change nothing and misinterprete a welfare society for all, including immigrants which don't work at all. Given that, a visit to a doctor costs me 1 euro, while hospitalization costs are also relatively cheap, still expensive (but instead of 4000+ euros, i have to pay like 300 euros)

You can't study because you have a mental issue? Like, wtf. I would understand if it was intended for really sick people who have no chance of recovery (serious Syndromes which affect the brain etc.), but you're obviously capable to study, seeing the posts you write.

I basically agree with most of your points, it's a rather simple issue, which for some reason certain parties are not able to recognize.

Hope you find a way to continue your education and take care of your issues!
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Laki
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« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2019, 09:54:27 am »

One example is my PS4 got stolen. I know who did it, and i have the serial code. But the police isn't making work of it. It's not a priority issue to them, and it's been weeks i've heard about them. That's exactly the kind of frustration and anger that causes people to move to the right. People feel like people can commit crimes and get away with it. And if they get caught, they usually get minor punishments.

Other example, a friend of my mom sits in a wheelchair, can't find a social house or help from the society (costs for her wheelchair) because she believes immigrants and refugees get their help first. One other friend of me said that 14 of the 15 people waiting before him all had immigrant names on the waiting list for a social house. They both vote Vlaams Belang. My dad is poor and also votes Vlaams Belang because he believes cabinet members earn too much, while they have a difficult time with four kinds to end the month in the positive net, while a good friend of him's does nothing and earn a wage for nothing, because she's "sick" while she isn't, and she's even too lazy to do her own household. Her man has do to do it all, working and doing the household. It's a messy place. Society in general is unfair and it frustrates people. Hard working people have not too many benefits over not hard working people, and i'm one of those, since i'm also mentally ill. For me personally life is expensive as well and i get an income of 1000 euros without working, but my costs for doctor and things like that are also very high and now i need to keep attention to my finances. The gap between the rich and the poor is rising. I don't want to live from a disability income, that's why i intend to study. The weird thing is that i am not allowed to study while under a disability income, that i get no benefits for studying and that study costs are around 5000 euros, so it's not really encouraged. It's like society saying we prefer you to stay on a disability income and they have a hard time activating people.

That's why i want to cut social security for those who don't need it, and want to spend it on healthcare and education which is far better than what we have now. Meanwhile social democrats currently don't have really an ideology, change nothing and misinterprete a welfare society for all, including immigrants which don't work at all. Given that, a visit to a doctor costs me 1 euro, while hospitalization costs are also relatively cheap, still expensive (but instead of 4000+ euros, i have to pay like 300 euros)

You can't study because you have a mental issue? Like, wtf. I would understand if it was intended for really sick people who have no chance of recovery (serious Syndromes which affect the brain etc.), but you're obviously capable to study, seeing the posts you write.

I basically agree with most of your points, it's a rather simple issue, which for some reason certain parties are not able to recognize.

Hope you find a way to continue your education and take care of your issues!

Well, it's possible, i'll do it, but i risk to lose my income. We will have to inform about it, but i find it pretty illogical that you can't get support when you try to activate yourself in society, which is something society should aim for.

I take care of my issues, i finally start to have a better feeling, so my depression is weakening. It'll not be gone yet, but i think it's liveable and acceptable.
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Mike88
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2019, 11:44:46 am »
« Edited: November 23, 2019, 11:47:47 am by Mike88 »

I can talk about Portugal. The surprising, but not that surprising really, rise of Chega in the 2019 elections and their surge in recent polls surprised many. I don't like them, particularly Ventura, because I find unsupportable the hypocrisy of defending the fight against corrupt elites and, at the same time, attacking those who want to investigate his football club for, you guessed it, corruption. But, I acknowledge he has found an opportunity in the current Portuguese mood. Right now, like one pundit said yesterday, we're seeing the very slow disintegration of the Portuguese State, with police, nurses, doctors, teachers, and others, all fighting for better conditions in their work places and realizing the government has no response to their problems. Even today, CGTP leader Arménio Carlos, one of the PCP main unions, said rightwing/far-right movements are increasing in Portugal due to the government's lack of response. And I'm not even going to talk about the dept of corruption.

So, the Denmark solution could be a way for Portugal. If either the PS or PSD tried to respond to some problems in the country, these movements could stop growing. Right now, the PS is refusing any talks with smaller parties like Chega or IL, while the PSD has already met with Chega to discuss possible bridges.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2019, 02:40:16 pm »

With the far right rising and even appearing in countries like Germany and Spain where it didn't exist a decade ago while now leading in Italy and competitive in Finland and Sweden, anybody know how to push it back or will it result in one actually winning?  Denmark was successful by the Social Democrats combining tough immigration policies with a more generous welfare state so would a policy like that elsewhere be successful or was that unique to Denmark?

I think the most important thing is (a) to refrain from creating a self-fulfilling prophecy and (b) to keep the local context in mind. Not all far-right parties in Western Europe are the same and not always did they 'rise' because of the same or even because of related reasons. In fact, there are vast differences one should consider.

Let's take the case of Germany for instance: Were there far-right parties and politicians ten years ago? Of course! Most prominently the National Democratic Party (NPD) which held seats in the state parliaments of Saxony (9.2% in 2004; 5.6% in 2009) and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (7.3% in 2006), but also a plethora of minor parties like the DVU, Pro Köln/NRW/Deutschland, Die Freiheit, PDV, Pro DM... In addition, there were also the Republicans in Baden-Württemberg (1992: 10.9%; 1996: 9.1%) and Berlin (1989: 7.5%) or the PRO in Hamburg (2001: 19,4(!)%), not to mention a far more conservative CDU/CSU which even had to expel an openly anti-Semitic MP (during the so-called Hohmann-Affäre) in 2003. Today, all of these parties do either not exist anymore or have vanished into oblivion and the ultra-conservative CDU/CSU of the past has turned into a rather moderate center-right party which regularly enters into coalitions with both Social Democrats and Greens. And while almost all former (far-right) voters of these parties have switched to the AfD, there is no actual indication that their number is higher than it was 10 or 15 years ago. The only differences are: 1. There is now only one relevant party instead of many irrelevant ones. 2. The CDU/CSU is much more moderate nowadays - just like German society in general.  

From a strategic point of view, this is not necessarily a great development for the far-right and I'm surprised that many people don't see this. Having a single far-right party that polls between 10% and 15% for the price of an increasingly modern and liberal center-right party? Can this be a good thing? In the end, the former is more isolated than any other political formation in the history of the Bundestag whereas the latter is governing for 14 years now. One could even say that the rise of the AfD has pushed the entire German party system structurally to the left as there is no realistic chance of getting enough votes for a traditional center-right coalition (CDU/CSU-FDP) anymore.  

Now, when it comes to combating the AfD, the only useful method seems to ignore it and consequently isolate both its politicians and its members. Do not give them any screen time. Do not treat them as equals. Deplatform them. Destroy their support structures and networks. Any kind of attention (be it positive or negative) only gives the party a chance to influence the political agenda. I'm quite certain that the same would also work in many other European countries but, again, it's first and foremost the local context that is relevant here.

Also, I am a bit tired of this hyper-dramatic "the far-right will take over" narrative. I heard the same before the 2017 Dutch elections ("Wilders will win and the Netherlands will leave the EU") but Wilders lost. And I heard it before the 2017 French elections ("Le Pen will win and France will leave the EU") but Le Pen lost. More recently, the FPÖ lost almost 10% in the 2019 Austrian elections and the SVP shrunk for the first time in decades in the 2019 Swiss elections. Yes, party systems change and sometimes far-right parties can profit from it. But the same is equally true for liberal parties, green parties, regionalist parties, and even far-left parties (e.g. PODEMOS and SYRIZA a few years ago). There is no automatism of any sort.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2019, 02:54:01 pm »

Currently the far-right has taken that position of being in favour of the welfare state combined with tough immigration policies. In Belgium, i know many older social democrat voters who now vote for far-right parties. That's their problem.

But this is not the case everywhere. Far-right parties in Western Europe diverge on their positions on economic issues and the scope of the welfare state quite a lot; some are almost socialist while others preach the neoliberal gospel of privatization, deregulation, and low taxes for the wealthy. They also diverge on many other positions and I find it difficult to employ such a schematic view. I also doubt that many far-right voters are concerned with actual policies in the first place.
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Laki
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« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2019, 07:48:56 am »

Currently the far-right has taken that position of being in favour of the welfare state combined with tough immigration policies. In Belgium, i know many older social democrat voters who now vote for far-right parties. That's their problem.

But this is not the case everywhere. Far-right parties in Western Europe diverge on their positions on economic issues and the scope of the welfare state quite a lot; some are almost socialist while others preach the neoliberal gospel of privatization, deregulation, and low taxes for the wealthy. They also diverge on many other positions and I find it difficult to employ such a schematic view. I also doubt that many far-right voters are concerned with actual policies in the first place.
That's true, but i think it matters slightly, at least it does in Belgium, Austria, Germany (?), Italy (?) and France. UK, Spain, Eastern Europe and Portugal for example have different far-right parties.
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Meclazine
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2019, 04:42:23 pm »
« Edited: November 24, 2019, 04:48:15 pm by Meclazine »

It's not super far right.

It's just a leaning more to the right.

The OP has suggested that this needs a solution. If the people voted that way, then democracy has been succesful.

Importing hundreds of thousands of Syrians and North Africans into Europe may not be to everyones liking, particularly when they are just seeking free money in the form of welfare.

I think people who dont understand this are missing a valid point. Why dont we see people leaving Norway to live in Syria?

And after people from Norway arrive in Syria, they start dealing drugs to Syrians and King Assad says

"They are not bring their best".

Then King Assad puts Norway on a list of s%$@hole countries and bans them from entering.

The left fail to see the reality of the planet because they are clouded in fantasies that dont exist.

Hence your average voter moves to the right.
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