IA-Monmouth: Buttigieg +3
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  IA-Monmouth: Buttigieg +3
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Author Topic: IA-Monmouth: Buttigieg +3  (Read 3495 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: November 12, 2019, 01:30:52 PM »

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The Free North
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2019, 01:31:27 PM »

Trend since August

Buttigieg: 22% (+14)
Biden: 19% (-7)
Warren: 18% (-2)
Sanders: 13% (+5)
Klobuchar: 5% (+2)
Harris: 3% (-9)
Steyer: 3% (-)
Yang: 3% (+2)
Booker: 2% (+1)
Gabbard: 2% (+1)
Bullock: 1% (-)
Castro: 1% (+1)
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Shadows
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2019, 01:32:29 PM »

Pete seems really strong in Iowa & to some extent in NH as well.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2019, 01:32:42 PM »

BUTTIMENTUM IS REAL, FOLKS
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Cinemark
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2019, 01:35:59 PM »

*gasp*
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Gracile
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2019, 01:37:06 PM »

What on earth.
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Kylar
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2019, 01:37:26 PM »

As a Republican conservative Christian voter, I find this astounding, but not altogether. I think Pete is going to pick up steam, and he could very well win Iowa.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2019, 01:39:06 PM »

Smiley

Not surprising.

After all, IA is a really good fit for Mayor Pete. IA voters do not really want to embrace the quite leftist views of Warren/Sanders and want a more moderate approach.

Of course, in 2016 Sanders got almost 50% with the same views - but that was more a vote against Hillary than a vote for his views ...
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2019, 01:39:50 PM »

LOL at all those lefties who attacked Biden, Harris, and Warren as insufficiently progressive only to see the even more conservative Buttigieg surge.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2019, 01:40:48 PM »

Welp. He's my second choice among the top candidates, so whatever. He might well pull off an Obama 2008.

He's clearly connecting well with voters if he's surging in Iowa and NH, where he's laser focused right now. If he can replicate that nationally, we might have something here.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2019, 01:40:59 PM »

LOL at all those lefties who attacked Biden, Harris, and Warren as insufficiently progressive only to see the even more conservative Buttigieg surge.

Why do you think Pete is more "conservative" than Biden?
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20RP12
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2019, 01:42:03 PM »

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Skye
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« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2019, 01:43:48 PM »

Full poll: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_111219/

Second choices (because these matter in IA):

Warren 17
Buttigieg 15
Sanders 12
Biden 10
Klobuchar 9
Harris 6
Steyer 3
Booker 2
Bloomberg, Castro, Gabbard, Yang, Williamson 1
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Pollster
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2019, 01:44:38 PM »

Usual caveats that MOE is high here (around 4.6%, though this is lower than Monmouth's usual) and this poll essentially shows a three-way tie.

That being said, impossible to deny at this point that Buttigieg is rapidly gaining ground and Sanders has regained ground lost. Will be interesting to see if Buttigieg goes the Ben Carson way or the Barack Obama way.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2019, 01:44:42 PM »

Fitting:

2020 Dems Mock Buttigieg’s Youth and Inexperience

Quote
Several top 2020 Democratic contenders are taking shots at South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg.

A New York Times report reveals that the widespread annoyance comes after Buttigieg declared last week that the Democratic primary race was a "two-way" race between him and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.).

Link

This worked so well here for example ... Roll Eyes

Everyone attacked Sebastian Kurz for being "inexperienced" and "young" and then he became Chancellor and was re-elected in a landslide at age 33 ...
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Cinemark
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« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2019, 01:51:56 PM »

Welp. He's my second choice among the top candidates, so whatever. He might well pull off an Obama 2008.

He's clearly connecting well with voters if he's surging in Iowa and NH, where he's laser focused right now. If he can replicate that nationally, we might have something here.

The issue is, Obama was already polling pretty well with black voters before the Iowa Caucus. But he was in a unique position to take the support Hillary had after he proved he was viable. I'm not sure Mayor Pete will be able to do the same thing with Biden.

That being said, Hillary also ended up winning New Hampshire and Nevada. If Biden loses Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, voters of all races might start abandoning him.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2019, 01:52:45 PM »

Purple heart MAYOR PRESIDENT PETE! Purple heart
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2019, 01:55:50 PM »

Welp. He's my second choice among the top candidates, so whatever. He might well pull off an Obama 2008.

He's clearly connecting well with voters if he's surging in Iowa and NH, where he's laser focused right now. If he can replicate that nationally, we might have something here.

The issue is, Obama was already polling pretty well with black voters before the Iowa Caucus. But he was in a unique position to take the support Hillary had after he proved he was viable. I'm not sure Mayor Pete will be able to do the same thing with Biden.

That being said, Hillary also ended up winning New Hampshire and Nevada. If Biden loses Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, voters of all races might start abandoning him.

Yeah, we'll have to see what happens. In the case of a collapse in Biden's support, I don't know enough about the Black community to know whether they would go Bernie, Warren, or Pete in a three way race with these candidates.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: November 12, 2019, 01:55:56 PM »

Headlines like these

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-buttigieg-first-iowa-183001793.html

will push him up further by more than 5% in the coming days and weeks.

The question is:

Is he peaking too early ? I guess not, because in a month everyone is in Christmas mood and that usually lasts the whole January too. So Pete should sustain the next 2 months rather unscathed and win both IA and NH.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2019, 02:01:20 PM »

Biden is loving this poll. He is hoping Buttigieg can kill off the only two candidates who have any real chance of beating him.
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SN2903
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« Reply #20 on: November 12, 2019, 02:02:27 PM »

I could easily see Gabbard sneaking up in Iowa to maybe 5-7% and then maybe surprising with around 15% in New Hampshire and I think Amy could get 10-12% with a good ground game. I see Bernie getting 5th in Iowa maybe.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: November 12, 2019, 02:03:38 PM »

Great news, if this is true, Buttigieg can win afterall.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #22 on: November 12, 2019, 02:05:14 PM »

Nice to see Lizmentum has stopped.

Mayor Pete has a shot at winning Iowa, but I don't see him nominated regardless. When was the last time the Democratic nominee lost the black vote?
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #23 on: November 12, 2019, 02:05:27 PM »

Yeah, at this point, the most likely scenario to me seems to be Buttigieg winning Iowa, Sanders winning New Hampshire, Biden clawing his way to a victory in Nevada and then blowing out the field in SC. From there, it'll be hard to stop Biden.
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SN2903
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« Reply #24 on: November 12, 2019, 02:05:33 PM »

Biden is loving this poll. He is hoping Buttigieg can kill off the only two candidates who have any real chance of beating him.
I dunno. I think Pete could steal Biden's thunder as the moderate candidate. If Biden does poorly in Iowa (worse than 2nd ) and NH (worse than 2nd) I think he is done.
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