Economist/YouGov nat. poll: Warren 26 Biden 23 Sanders 17 Buttigieg 9 Harris 5

[Mr. Morden]

Economist/YouGov national poll, conducted Nov. 10-12:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7umtlf80ov/econTabReport.pdf

Dems:
Warren 26%
Biden 23%
Sanders 17%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 5%
Yang 4%
Klobuchar 2%
Gabbard 2%
Castro 2%
Delaney 1%
Booker 1%
Steyer 1%
Bullock 1%
Bennet, Williamson, Messam, Sestak 0%

GOP:
Trump 89%
Sanford 3%
Walsh 1%
Weld 1%

[Sorenroy]

Sample size of 600 likely voters. Change is from their previous poll conducted one week ago.

Dems:
Warren — 26% (+1%)
Biden — 23% (-3%)
Sanders — 17% (+3%)
Buttigieg — 9% (+1%)
Harris — 5% (-1%)
Yang — 4% (+3%)
Klobuchar — 2% (±0)
Gabbard — 2% (-1%)
Castro — 2% (-1%)
Delaney — 1% (±0)
Booker — 1% (-1%)
Steyer — 1% (±0)
Bullock — 1% (±0)
Bennet — 0% (±0)
Williamson — 0% (-1%)
Messam — 0% (±0)
Sestak — 0% (±0)

GOP:
Trump — 89% (+2%)
Sanford— 3% (+2%)
Weld — 1% (-2%)
Walsh — 1% (±0)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Buttigieg is more electable than Warren, thus along with Biden, without Sanders, the three are frontrunners

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

WOWZA!  Soarin’ Sanders bigly gains!

[Pollster]

This has Warren winning 19% of Black voters to Biden's 40%, which is probably just a few points short of what she needs to happen to win the delegate race if all things remain equal. ~25% of the Black vote nationally would ensure that she reaches viability in the Southern states while preventing most to all of her non-Biden opponents from it, thus stopping Biden from sweeping all of the delegates while keeping the other candidates at net zero.

[Eraserhead]

This has Warren winning 19% of Black voters to Biden's 40%, which is probably just a few points short of what she needs to happen to win the delegate race if all things remain equal. ~25% of the Black vote nationally would ensure that she reaches viability in the Southern states while preventing most to all of her non-Biden opponents from it, thus stopping Biden from sweeping all of the delegates while keeping the other candidates at net zero.

This just screams junk poll. Does anyone really believe that?

[OneJ]

This has Warren winning 19% of Black voters to Biden's 40%, which is probably just a few points short of what she needs to happen to win the delegate race if all things remain equal. ~25% of the Black vote nationally would ensure that she reaches viability in the Southern states while preventing most to all of her non-Biden opponents from it, thus stopping Biden from sweeping all of the delegates while keeping the other candidates at net zero.

This just screams junk poll. Does anyone really believe that?

Why not? This isn't the first poll that has shown her around this level among black voters. Also it's really not best to take crosstabs too seriously due to the MOE.

[SN2903]

Bad #s for Biden

[eric82oslo]

Dems:
Harris — 5% (-1%)
Yang — 4% (+3%)

Yang has cut Harris' lead over him from 5% down to just 1% in one week.

[Mr. Morden]

This has Warren winning 19% of Black voters to Biden's 40%, which is probably just a few points short of what she needs to happen to win the delegate race if all things remain equal. ~25% of the Black vote nationally would ensure that she reaches viability in the Southern states while preventing most to all of her non-Biden opponents from it, thus stopping Biden from sweeping all of the delegates while keeping the other candidates at net zero.

This just screams junk poll. Does anyone really believe that?

That’s not out of line with other national polls in which Warren’s topline number is in the mid-20s.  E.g., in last week’s YouGov poll, she was at 17% among blacks.  In last week’s ABC/WaPo poll, she was actually at 22% among blacks.  In the polls where Warren is doing well enough to have her topline number in the mid-20s, she’s at least in the mid-teens among blacks, if not higher.  In the polls where her topline number is lower than that though, she isn’t doing as well among blacks.

[Eraserhead]

This has Warren winning 19% of Black voters to Biden's 40%, which is probably just a few points short of what she needs to happen to win the delegate race if all things remain equal. ~25% of the Black vote nationally would ensure that she reaches viability in the Southern states while preventing most to all of her non-Biden opponents from it, thus stopping Biden from sweeping all of the delegates while keeping the other candidates at net zero.

This just screams junk poll. Does anyone really believe that?

That’s not out of line with other national polls in which Warren’s topline number is in the mid-20s.  E.g., in last week’s YouGov poll, she was at 17% among blacks.  In last week’s ABC/WaPo poll, she was actually at 22% among blacks.  In the polls where Warren is doing well enough to have her topline number in the mid-20s, she’s at least in the mid-teens among blacks, if not higher.  In the polls where her topline number is lower than that though, she isn’t doing as well among blacks.

It's more the margin between Biden and her that I find hard to believe although that number from the ABC poll sounds questionable too.

This YouGov poll has always been one of her best though and in fact most of her 3 point lead over Sanders in the RCP average is thanks to it.

[Mr. Morden]

white:
Warren 30%
Biden 18%
Sanders 18%
Buttigieg 13%

black:
Biden 40%
Warren 19%
Sanders 12%
Harris 9%

Hispanic:
Biden 24%
Sanders 20%
Warren 16%
Buttigieg 8%

Midwest:
Biden 23%
Warren 19%
Sanders 18%

Northeast:
Warren 37%
Biden 19%
Sanders 13%

South:
Biden 29%
Warren 25%
Sanders 16%

West:
Warren 26%
Sanders 20%
Biden 16%

Who is your 2nd choice?
Warren 17%
Sanders 10%
Buttigieg 8%
Biden 7%
Harris 7%
Klobuchar 4%
Booker 3%
Castro 2%
everyone else 0 or 1%

I would be disappointed if this person was the nominee (pick as many as you want):

Gabbard 38%
Williamson 38%
Biden 27%
Steyer 27%
Messam 24%
Sestak 24%
Delaney 24%
Sanders 22%
Bullock 22%
Yang 21%
Bennet 20%
Harris 19%
Klobuchar 19%
Castro 17%
Buttigieg 17%
Warren 16%
Booker 15%

I wouldn’t be disappointed with any of them: 25%