IA-Monmouth: Buttigieg +3

[Pericles]

If Warren doesn't win Iowa, Biden will probably be the nominee. However Buttigieg's surge might not last until people actually go to vote, the most important polls are of course the ones right before the caucuses and we don't know those results.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren has to win Iowa

[eric82oslo]

If Warren doesn't win Iowa, Biden will probably be the nominee. However Buttigieg's surge might not last until people actually go to vote, the most important polls are of course the ones right before the caucuses and we don't know those results.

I think both Warren and Pete are peaking too soon. History has repeatedly shown that the best time to start peaking in Iowa is during the month of Iowa, which is still 7 weeks and two debates away. Pete will take a ton of incoming during the next two months for sure.

[wbrocks67]

Again, it's really frustrating to see that Harris is spending half her months in Iowa and getting literally no results out of it.

[Pericles]

If Warren doesn't win Iowa, Biden will probably be the nominee. However Buttigieg's surge might not last until people actually go to vote, the most important polls are of course the ones right before the caucuses and we don't know those results.

I think both Warren and Pete are peaking too soon. History has repeatedly shown that the best time to start peaking in Iowa is during the month of Iowa, which is still 7 weeks and two debates away. Pete will take a ton of incoming during the next two months for sure.

Warren's rise has been gradual, the dynamic in a way is a bit similar to Bernie 2016 who rose from single digits to by October be a major contender, then he fell back a bit before surging again before Iowa. Warren also hasn't really collapsed like other candidates both in this primary and previous ones who had rapid surges (eg Kamala Harris who rose nearly 10 points in a week and her candidacy then gradually died).

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Again, it's really frustrating to see that Harris is spending half her months in Iowa and getting literally no results out of it.

Frustrating? It's a thing of beauty.

[libertpaulian]

Didn't Obama start surging just before Thanksgiving?

[Tartarus Sauce]

As somebody volunteering for the Buttiegieg campaign here in Iowa, I can confirm that he has an incredibly strong ground game. There’s legitimate excitement for him out here.

[Skill and Chance]

A bit skeptical that Buttigieg would surge that much, but if more polls confirm this, I could see Buttigieg being competitive in Iowa. The problem for him is that unless the progressive base coalesces around him quickly after that, it's going to be very hard for him to beat Biden. I can't see him making much headway in the South.

If Buttigieg wins Iowa and his momentum carries him in NH, Bernie and especially Warren are done as serious contenders and Buttigieg should at least be competitive with Biden in Nevada.  It would be a long, close battle with Biden.  I still see Biden dominating SC and the South in general, but when Warren drops out, most of her support would go to Buttigieg, which could be enough for him in the Midwest and Northeast.  IDK what would happen with Sanders and I kind of doubt he would ever drop out prior to the convention.

[NOVA Green]

We will definitely need to see if this is a bit of an outlier or if the trend is real.

The people of Iowa definitely take their 1st in the Nation Caucus seriously, and are frequently quite ornery when it comes to bucking the CW hawks of the MSM....

One of the interesting thing about this poll, is that it appears to show a pretty broad base of support for Mayor Pete among a wide range of the Iowa Democratic Electorate, including Age, Education, and Very Liberal, Liberal, and Moderate/Conservative formations, as well as doing pretty well among both Male and Female Caucus Voters.....

It should also be noted that Iowa was one of the first states to legalize SSM (albeit through the Supreme Court), and I believe the first Midwest State to perform the honors....

So yeah, Buttigieg's story isn't going to hurt him among DEM caucus voters in that regard, despite Catholic, Protestant, Secular/Other religious orientations of IA DEM Caucus voters....

Also, his Military background, in one of the more historically Dovish States in the Midwest from way back during the 'Nam era doesn't hurt him either where you can both support a more isolationist foreign policy, but still don't believe in burying your head in the sand when it comes to international policy decisions that actively require American involvement on a global stage....

Don't know enough about his trade policy compared to some of the other candidates, but would imagine he knows how to both protect the economic interest of Midwest States, but not going full-scale Trade-War against China, etc a la DJT.

Just a few thoughts....

[Santander]

Looking forward to seeing the Butt bros and Bernie bros fight to bully elderly Biden/Warren caucusgoers into joining them.

[Spiffy]

The debate will definitely be interesting. Mayor Pete has generally speaking been a good debater, but also he's not really had such a large target on him.

[Grassroots]

I could easily see Gabbard sneaking up in Iowa to maybe 5-7% and then maybe surprising with around 15% in New Hampshire and I think Amy could get 10-12% with a good ground game. I see Bernie getting 5th in Iowa maybe.

Stop.

[Holmes]

I could easily see Gabbard sneaking up in Iowa to maybe 5-7% and then maybe surprising with around 15% in New Hampshire and I think Amy could get 10-12% with a good ground game. I see Bernie getting 5th in Iowa maybe.

You really don't have your finger on the pulse of the Democratic primary.

[Mr. Morden]

very liberal:
Warren 35%
Sanders 22%
Buttigieg 15%
Biden 12%
Harris 5%

somewhat liberal:
Buttigieg 23%
Warren 20%
Sanders 19%
Biden 10%
Klobuchar 7%

moderate:
Biden 26%
Buttigieg 26%
Warren 10%
Klobuchar 7%
Sanders 7%

college grad:
Buttigieg 24%
Warren 21%
Biden 15%
Klobuchar 7%
Sanders 7%

non-college grad:
Biden 21%
Buttigieg 21%
Sanders 18%
Warren 16%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren or Buttigieg will win IA and NH