Is this race really that close?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not when you have an ongoing impeachment hearing going on, the GOP can lose the Senate

[pbrower2a]

We also have the most scandal-plagued Administration in history. incompetent foreign policy, a President who consistently offends the other side, and utter chaos in the President's management of the Presidency.

What does the Lichtman test have to say?

The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
 3.  Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
 4.  Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
 5.  Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6.  Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
   8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
   9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
   10.  Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
 11.  Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
 12.  Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

favors the President's Party
favors the opposition party
yet to be decided
ambiguous

1. This is a tough standard, but Trump fails here -- big.
2. I do not consider Bill Weld a joke -- do you?
3. If anything happens to President Trump, then Pence runs.
4. It has yet to happen, but it cannot yet be ruled out.
5. Do you have a crystal ball?
6. Obama still has the edge here. It's not really fair, as a recovery from a deep downturn begins as unusually-high economic growth.
7. It is all about taxes. Otherwise he has been ineffective despite his grandiose promises.
8. Racist violence by white supremacists is unwelcome, but the President has egged it on.
9. This is the most corrupt administration in American history.
10. The President is a sick joke to America's traditional allies.
11. Do you trust Kim Jong-Un? I don't!
12. Trump has charisma among his core supporters, but that could be it.
13. Not established yet when we do not know who the nominee is.  

Six keys go against the President already.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Waaayyyyyy too early. Especially given that impeachment hearings could bolster Trump's chances or utterly destroy him. I don't know. You don't know. Nobody knows.

When we have a presumptive Democratic nominee the General Election polls will start to matter.

[SN2903]

I think it will be close.

The Kentucky governor's race was a very bad sign for Trump. There are a lot of parallels between Bevin and Trump. Both were elected as outsiders after defeating established politicians in the primary, and won upset victories in the general after consistently trailing polls. Bevin's personality and governing style are very similar to Trump's - impulsive, egotistical and needlessly confrontational, even with members of his own party. And those traits were the reason he was so unpopular and galvanized people into voting him out of office. On paper, Trump should be doomed when facing an electorate much less conservative than that of Kentucky.

However, what Trump has that Bevin really didn't is base that LOVES him, even if the rest of the country doesn't. No matter what, they will turn out to support him. This far out, Trump is trailing in almost every poll, but it could just be a repeat of 2016 where the Democrats lose thanks to a combination of complacency and death by a thousand cuts, considering that the four main candidates all have exploitable flaws of their own.

So does the Democrat manage to make it about Trump, or does Trump manage to make it about the Democrat? Both will try their hardest, and we'll see which one prevails. With the current polarization, it's anyone's game now.

You can't compare that race to 2020. Trump is far more popular than Bevan. Bevan had a 34% approval. Trump has consistently been between 42 and 47 for most of his presidency minus 2017. Trump's base as you pointed out is much larger and stronger. Trump wouldn't lose those rural counties or do as poorly as Bevan did. The suburban vote is a legitimate point but again this all comes down to who the democrats nominate. If Trump can successfully paint them as inept or radical he can do as well or better than he did in the burbs in 2016. I still believe this race is an uphill battle for the dems in the electoral college that is why I think it's lean Trump.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I think it will be close.

The Kentucky governor's race was a very bad sign for Trump. There are a lot of parallels between Bevin and Trump. Both were elected as outsiders after defeating established politicians in the primary, and won upset victories in the general after consistently trailing polls. Bevin's personality and governing style are very similar to Trump's - impulsive, egotistical and needlessly confrontational, even with members of his own party. And those traits were the reason he was so unpopular and galvanized people into voting him out of office. On paper, Trump should be doomed when facing an electorate much less conservative than that of Kentucky.

However, what Trump has that Bevin really didn't is base that LOVES him, even if the rest of the country doesn't. No matter what, they will turn out to support him. This far out, Trump is trailing in almost every poll, but it could just be a repeat of 2016 where the Democrats lose thanks to a combination of complacency and death by a thousand cuts, considering that the four main candidates all have exploitable flaws of their own.

So does the Democrat manage to make it about Trump, or does Trump manage to make it about the Democrat? Both will try their hardest, and we'll see which one prevails. With the current polarization, it's anyone's game now.

You can't compare that race to 2020. Trump is far more popular than Bevan. Bevan had a 34% approval. Trump has consistently been between 42 and 47 for most of his presidency minus 2017. Trump's base as you pointed out is much larger and stronger. Trump wouldn't lose those rural counties or do as poorly as Bevan did. The suburban vote is a legitimate point but again this all comes down to who the democrats nominate. If Trump can successfully paint them as inept or radical he can do as well or better than he did in the burbs in 2016. I still believe this race is an uphill battle for the dems in the electoral college that is why I think it's lean Trump.

Two points here:

1. Since early 2018 Trump's average approval has generally bounced around between 40 and 43%.

2. You've made a great argument for why Trump will win the state of Kentucky. The country as a whole, however, is substantially less conservative than Kentucky, so you shouldn't be arguing that Trump would need an approval rating in the 30s to lose nationally.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, it's decently close. I think we can rule out a large Republican win in 2020 already, with a large Democratic win a possibility but a much less likely one. The economy is not the only thing that matters in presidential elections anymore. Trump is not going to get 50% of American's votes. His job is to convince the other 45-50% who don't hate his guts. And he could still very well do that because favorability of the Dem candidates and the national events going on still have lots of time to change.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yes, it's decently close. I think we can rule out a large Republican win in 2020 already, with a large Democratic win a possibility but a much less likely one. The economy is not the only thing that matters in presidential elections anymore. Trump is not going to get 50% of American's votes. His job is to convince the other 45-50% who don't hate his guts. And he could still very well do that because favorability of the Dem candidates and the national events going on still have lots of time to change.

I would go a step further and say that Trump's re-election will depend on convincing a lot of people who hate his guts to hold their nose and vote for him. GOP ads are already giving this as their pitch. "I don't like him, you don't like him, but we need him."

If nobody who hated Trump voted for him, he'd lose not only PA, MI, and WI, but also AZ, FL, NC, GA, IA, and OH. And he would be lucky to not lose more.

[Pericles]

Bevin got to enact more of the conventional Republican agenda than Trump did. Perhaps Trump would be more unpopular if Obamacare repeal passed. Maybe in an ironic twist John McCain's thumbs down could end up saving Trump's presidency.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Impeachment is important but not that important, just like Benghazi, it's an international crime not a domestic agenda. But, Dems are sorting out whom they will nominate. But, Dems are favored next yr

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, it's decently close. I think we can rule out a large Republican win in 2020 already, with a large Democratic win a possibility but a much less likely one. The economy is not the only thing that matters in presidential elections anymore. Trump is not going to get 50% of American's votes. His job is to convince the other 45-50% who don't hate his guts. And he could still very well do that because favorability of the Dem candidates and the national events going on still have lots of time to change.

I would go a step further and say that Trump's re-election will depend on convincing a lot of people who hate his guts to hold their nose and vote for him. GOP ads are already giving this as their pitch. "I don't like him, you don't like him, but we need him."

If nobody who hated Trump voted for him, he'd lose not only PA, MI, and WI, but also AZ, FL, NC, GA, IA, and OH. And he would be lucky to not lose more.

At least 45% of Americans are open to voting for Trump. I would say there's a difference between disliking someone personally (many people who will vote for him) and hating them (which would imply they would do anything to get them out of office).

[rosin]

Yes, it's decently close. I think we can rule out a large Republican win in 2020 already, with a large Democratic win a possibility but a much less likely one. The economy is not the only thing that matters in presidential elections anymore. Trump is not going to get 50% of American's votes. His job is to convince the other 45-50% who don't hate his guts. And he could still very well do that because favorability of the Dem candidates and the national events going on still have lots of time to change.

I would go a step further and say that Trump's re-election will depend on convincing a lot of people who hate his guts to hold their nose and vote for him. GOP ads are already giving this as their pitch. "I don't like him, you don't like him, but we need him."

If nobody who hated Trump voted for him, he'd lose not only PA, MI, and WI, but also AZ, FL, NC, GA, IA, and OH. And he would be lucky to not lose more.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yes. If Trump wasn't Trump, maybe he would cruising to re-election. That's not to say that he can't be re-elected, he will always have the electoral college be his biggest advantage in 2020. But his very existence as the President he turned out to be: corrupt, incompetent, polarizing, etc. has made it possible for this election to be a really competitive one, when it otherwise shouldn't be.

I stubbornly maintain that this election will come down to outside factors beyond the control of either candidate.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I think it will be close.

The Kentucky governor's race was a very bad sign for Trump. There are a lot of parallels between Bevin and Trump. Both were elected as outsiders after defeating established politicians in the primary, and won upset victories in the general after consistently trailing polls. Bevin's personality and governing style are very similar to Trump's - impulsive, egotistical and needlessly confrontational, even with members of his own party. And those traits were the reason he was so unpopular and galvanized people into voting him out of office. On paper, Trump should be doomed when facing an electorate much less conservative than that of Kentucky.

However, what Trump has that Bevin really didn't is base that LOVES him, even if the rest of the country doesn't. No matter what, they will turn out to support him. This far out, Trump is trailing in almost every poll, but it could just be a repeat of 2016 where the Democrats lose thanks to a combination of complacency and death by a thousand cuts, considering that the four main candidates all have exploitable flaws of their own.

So does the Democrat manage to make it about Trump, or does Trump manage to make it about the Democrat? Both will try their hardest, and we'll see which one prevails. With the current polarization, it's anyone's game now.

Great post all around but the second paragraph is key.

Trump is an icon in the culture war. People are going to rally behind him in a way they wouldn't for Bevin (because Bevin the symbol had far less resonance among a grievous class which perceived themselves to be the underclass). This is, in my opinion, where extrapolating KY-Gov to the Presidential Race reaches its limit.

[Higgins]

I don’t even consider myself a Trump supporter, and actually disagree with a lot of his policies, but will vote for him next year as a message to Democrats to go back to the center on social issues. Cease pandering to Tumblr, SJWS and the like and I’ll go back to voting Democrat.

[here2view]

I don’t even consider myself a Trump supporter, and actually disagree with a lot of his policies, but will vote for him next year as a message to Democrats to go back to the center on social issues. Cease pandering to Tumblr, SJWS and the like and I’ll go back to voting Democrat.

Ok

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don’t even consider myself a Trump supporter, and actually disagree with a lot of his policies, but will vote for him next year as a message to Democrats to go back to the center on social issues. Cease pandering to Tumblr, SJWS and the like and I’ll go back to voting Democrat.

The fact that you would back Trump for the reasons you outlined is entirely why you might as well be the quintessential, generic Trump supporter.

[SN2903]

I don’t even consider myself a Trump supporter, and actually disagree with a lot of his policies, but will vote for him next year as a message to Democrats to go back to the center on social issues. Cease pandering to Tumblr, SJWS and the like and I’ll go back to voting Democrat.

The fact that you would back Trump for the reasons you outlined is entirely why you might as well be the quintessential, generic Trump supporter.

I used to be a dem too and my support for Trump is largely based on social issues. Democrats have moved way too far left for me on cultural issues.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don’t even consider myself a Trump supporter, and actually disagree with a lot of his policies, but will vote for him next year as a message to Democrats to go back to the center on social issues. Cease pandering to Tumblr, SJWS and the like and I’ll go back to voting Democrat.

The fact that you would back Trump for the reasons you outlined is entirely why you might as well be the quintessential, generic Trump supporter.

I used to be a dem too and my support for Trump is largely based on social issues. Democrats have moved way too far left for me on cultural issues.

Well, in your defense, at least that's out of a disagreement and not just spite like Higgins seemed to indicate.

[morgankingsley]

It's closer than the people I know in real life say it is, but bigger away than most of Atlas claims it to be

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

No, Trump is pretty far behind.

[McGarnagle]

There's no option for "Polls are overestimating Trump's support", so I didn't vote in your poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2008-12 waves were close until the end, remember, Trump is gaffe prone, just like Palin, and being made fun of on SNL, like Romney as well; as a result, it will be a tsunami

[Inmate Trump]

I think it's more likely to not be close at all, with a Democratic victory, than for Trump to win.

However, Democrats are right to be worried and it's understandable why Republicans are already gloating.

[Peanut]

I think OP has shown himself to be beyond the realm of reason; so for once, I will not even try to give a serious answer.

2008-12 waves were close until the end, remember, Trump is gaffe prone, just like Palin, and being made fun of on SNL, like Romney as well; as a result, it will be a tsunami

Ah yes, SNL skits, the great national predictors. Never change Olowakandi, you're awesome.

[pbrower2a]

I think it will be close.

The Kentucky governor's race was a very bad sign for Trump. There are a lot of parallels between Bevin and Trump. Both were elected as outsiders after defeating established politicians in the primary, and won upset victories in the general after consistently trailing polls. Bevin's personality and governing style are very similar to Trump's - impulsive, egotistical and needlessly confrontational, even with members of his own party. And those traits were the reason he was so unpopular and galvanized people into voting him out of office. On paper, Trump should be doomed when facing an electorate much less conservative than that of Kentucky.

However, what Trump has that Bevin really didn't is base that LOVES him, even if the rest of the country doesn't. No matter what, they will turn out to support him. This far out, Trump is trailing in almost every poll, but it could just be a repeat of 2016 where the Democrats lose thanks to a combination of complacency and death by a thousand cuts, considering that the four main candidates all have exploitable flaws of their own.

So does the Democrat manage to make it about Trump, or does Trump manage to make it about the Democrat? Both will try their hardest, and we'll see which one prevails. With the current polarization, it's anyone's game now.

The Kentucky gubernatorial race is about statewide, and not about federal issues. Note that Republicans have governors in Vermont and Maryland. Anyone who thinks that voters in Maryland or Vermont will vote for Trump for President  because those states have Republican governors is crazy. It could be about state budgets or that people want to split power in state politics.  

Three indicators more important in recognizing how Kentucky will vote are

(1) that Trump won Kentucky by a huge margin in 2016
(2) that Rand Paul got re-elected by a huge margin in 2016
(3) that Republicans won by a huge margin in the overall vote for seats in the US House of Representatives in 2018
(4) polls of approval and disapproval in Kentucky show the President in good shape there even if they showed Governor Bevin in trouble.
(5) no demographic trend suggests that Kentucky is drifting D, but Kentucky is full of people who were core support for Trump in 2016.
(6) the state hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1996 and has not been close.

Kentucky looks like a state that could go to Trump despite a Democratic landslide in the Electoral College.

So contrast such a state as Arizona:

(1) it was close in 2016, so it would not take much to swing the state
(2) a Democrat was elected to the US Senate
(3) Democrats won a plurality in House races in 2018, suggesting that Arizona voters had some trouble with Trump as President
(4) approval and disapproval numbers for the President are below what one expects in a state that the President seems likely to win
(5) minority populations are small, and Kentucky's urban areas are not growing in population -- but Arizona has a large Mexican-American population hostile to Trump irrespective of social-economic status
(6) Arizona has typically gone from the fringe of contention in partisan races to very close.  

A Democrat can win Arizona while getting just under 300 electoral votes, but Kentucky goes D in a Presidential race only if the Democrat is getting 475 or so electoral votes. A Democrat getting 475 or so electoral votes against an incumbent Republican indicates that Trump is losing on the scale of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980.

So if you are a Democrat, don't expect Kentuckians to vote against Trump. They might not vote as firmly for him in 2020, which is a very bad sign for Trump. Kentucky is one of the two states that close their polls earliest -- at 6 PM based on the time zone -- and both states usually have enough votes in to make projections when the first states other than them to close their polls statewide close their polls statewide. At 7 PM Eastern time I expect that the networks will call those two states for Trump. The real indicator for national races may be the margins of Trump victories in those states. If Trump is ahead by narrower margins than usual when Virginia is not called (Virginia is fully in the Eastern zone and  closes its polls at 7 PM Eastern time), then the President is in deep trouble and could stand to lose states that that Republican nominees usually win -- like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. (Even more telling is Indiana; it has wild swings between elections, but if the Republican fails to win the state by more than 12%, the Democrat wins both the popular and electoral vote).    

Aside from Indiana and Kentucky, the states that close their statewide polls earliest are Georgia (which seems to be trending D), South Carolina (which has not voted for a Democratic nominee for President since Carter in 1976), Vermont (an instant call for Democrats since the 1990's), and Virginia (which went against Donald Trump in  2016 and shows signs of going against him by a landslide in 2020).  North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia close their polls at 7:30 PM Eastern Time.