GA-UGA: Biden +8, Sanders +4, Warren/Buttigieg +3, Harris +1

[Annatar]

Poll has trump approval at 44-54, seems like it’s off the mark. Reminds me of all the pre 2018 election polls that had trump approval in the mid 40’s and then Election Day came and trump approval was 51% in Florida, 52% in Georgia and 53% in Ohio, all the polls massively underestimated trump approval in a bunch of states. Seems like polls have same issue today.

[Annatar]

61% college grads? That seems a tad too high.

Depends on how they're counting. In 2016, exit polls showed 50% with a bachelor's or higher, but 2018 was only 33%. Those same exit polls showed a 12-point education gap in 2016 and a 23-point one in 2018. There's definitely a possibility that both the shares and support levels of educated/non-educated are incorrect - especially since prior to 2016, GA's education gap was smaller (and even just a few years ago, reversed; Dems did better with non-college educated than college educated).

The poll number is definitely off (assuming they're not including associate degrees, some college, etc), but - assuming 2018 education gap (23 points) is more reflective of 2020 & the 2016 % of college graduates (50%) is more reflective than 2018 - the difference would be around 5 points.  

So Biden +3, Sanders -1, Warren/Buttigieg -2, Harris -4, etc.

The exit polls oversampled educated voters in 2016, they admitted that and rebalanced things for 2018.
 

[Annatar]

The exit polls oversampled educated voters in 2016, they admitted that and rebalanced things for 2018.

The real figures for 2020 likely will be closer to 2016 exit poll figures than 2018 figures. First, there's a pretty solid track record of college graduates making up more than 40-45% of the electorate in a presidential year that goes back well beyond 2016 (irrespective of past debates over whether "working class" people were undersampled). Also, there are age discrepancies at work that naturally reduce the percentage of midterm voters who are college grads.

Midterm electorates are always more educated because less educated voters tend to stay home in midterms. In 2018 for example this was how turnout varied by education according to the Census Bureau.

High School Graduate: 42.1%
Some College: 54.7%
Bachelor Degree: 65.7%
Advanced Degree: 74%

In a presidential year, the rate won't rise much for bachelor's or advanced because it is already so high, they will rise for less educated voters. In 2018 college voters made up 43% of all voters, that figure will be lower in 2020. 

From 2016 -2018, according to the US Census Bureau, turnout fell by 18% among high school graduates in relative terms from 51.5% to 41.2%, 14% among voters with some college, 11.5% among voters with a Bachelor's degree and 7.9% among voters with an Advanced Degree.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-583.html

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-580.html