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  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginia)
  Opinion of Trends = Destiny talking point
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Author Topic: Opinion of Trends = Destiny talking point  (Read 388 times)
Old School Republican
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« on: November 14, 2019, 04:23:58 pm »

I find it extremely extremely dumb. Yes trends are real but their is a huge difference between saying they arent real and saying I dont believe Trends= Destiny
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« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2019, 04:26:43 pm »

Insufferable.
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« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2019, 04:27:15 pm »

Who exactly is making this talking point?
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2019, 04:35:23 pm »

Who exactly is making this talking point?

TrendsAreReal, IceSpear etc


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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2019, 05:15:22 pm »

People just have a hard time envisioning them reversing. To be fair, it's hard to put numbers to a position that goes against the data, but it happens all the time.
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« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2019, 06:25:31 pm »

Who exactly is making this talking point?

Many people.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2019, 06:29:41 pm »


Didnt you also make this point when you said there was nothing the GOP could have done to save VA. Well if McCain beat Bush in 2000, Bush lost in 2004 so a Republican won in 2008 it would still be a Republican state today and if Romney won in 2012 or if Kasich or even Marco  won in 2016 then it still would be a swing state today
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« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2019, 06:51:05 pm »


I don't think they've ever gone that far.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2019, 07:02:24 pm »
« Edited: November 14, 2019, 07:08:52 pm by Old School Republican »

People just have a hard time envisioning them reversing. To be fair, it's hard to put numbers to a position that goes against the data, but it happens all the time.

Yah this is how key Midwestern/Rust Belt States trended from 92-12


IA:
1992: R+0.55
2012: D+1.9

WI:

1992: R+ 2.2
2012: D+3.1

MI:

1992: D+0.9
2012: D+5.6

OH:
1992: R+ 4.7
2012:  R+ 0.9

PA:
1992:  D+2.5
2012:  D+ 1.5




Hereís AZ/GA :

GA:

1992: R+ 5.9
2012: R+11.7


AZ:

1992: R+8.5
2012: R+12.9
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« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2019, 12:44:26 pm »

One conclusion I've come to over the years is that long-term trends are usually fairly predictable, but the speed and degree to which they actually occur are not.

So I think that a fair number of people on this site are a little too confident that these long term trends will overpower all other aspects of elections in the short term. This thread from a few months ago in which a majority of posters predicted that David Perdue was more likely to lose than Bevin seems like a good example of what I'm talking about.
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« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2019, 03:59:45 am »

Didnt you also make this point when you said there was nothing the GOP could have done to save VA. Well if McCain beat Bush in 2000, Bush lost in 2004 so a Republican won in 2008 it would still be a Republican state today and if Romney won in 2012 or if Kasich or even Marco  won in 2016 then it still would be a swing state today

Err... thatís not how any of this works.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2019, 04:21:23 am »

Didnt you also make this point when you said there was nothing the GOP could have done to save VA. Well if McCain beat Bush in 2000, Bush lost in 2004 so a Republican won in 2008 it would still be a Republican state today and if Romney won in 2012 or if Kasich or even Marco  won in 2016 then it still would be a swing state today

Err... thatís not how any of this works.


Why Presidents in power have a lot , a lot to do with trends


If McCain wins in 2000- You get a socially moderate Republican President and a GOP who still woudl be very strong in affluent suburbs, on the other hand it would be weaker in non western rural areas

If Bush loses in 2004- You get a President McCain or President Romney in 2008 and the collapse of the Virginia Republican party which happened in Bush's 2nd term doesnt happen. Bush's social conservatism and the 2008 recession happening on Bush's watch caused that collapse

If Romney wins in 2012- Well VA was still a swing state then and clearly one , and any path to victory for him would include VA so the GOP would have to have their party be appealing to voters in VA.


If Kasich wins in 2016- I would say it would still be Tilt D state




Also look at the stats I just gave out below: The rust belt had trended Dem from 92-12(and also did from 04-12) and despite that it went in opposie direction in 2016
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