NV Trend

[S019]

It is clear that NV will become Safe D, yet some people believe it will be competitive again in the 2030-2040’s can someone explain this logic, and how NV does a reverse transformation with a growing Hispanic population

I actually think in 5-10 years, NV will be the next NM, and in 10-20 years it will be the next OR/WA with large Democratic margins as Clark and Washoe continue to trend D

[TML]

Some people assume that because Bernie Sanders didn't do well with minorities in 2016, and because of how anti-establishment he is, Trump might win NV over Sanders. IMO, these people are overlooking how Trump has done virtually nothing to appeal to Latino voters, which have been comprising an increasing share of the vote in NV.

The current competitiveness stems from the fact that statewide races in 2016 and 2018 were pretty much all decided by 5% or less (which is the threshold for highly competitive races). Nonetheless, as long as the Republican party keeps its ties to Trump and his ideologies, they will almost always come up short in statewide races in NV in the foreseeable future.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It is clear that NV will become Safe D, yet some people believe it will be competitive again in the 2030-2040’s can someone explain this logic, and how NV does a reverse transformation with a growing Hispanic population

I actually think in 5-10 years, NV will be the next NM, and in 10-20 years it will be the next OR/WA with large Democratic margins as Clark and Washoe continue to trend D

It has trended and swung R in every election since 2008, as did every county in 2016 except for one uber rural one in the upper right corner of the state. Trump leads in the polls there, and Republicans lost by pretty competitive margins in 2018 (unlike say Colorado). It voted just 0.3% to the left of the nation in 2016 and went from D+2 to D+1 PVI wise. There's a bunch of indicators saying it's becoming more Republican, not less.

"Clark and Washoe continue to trend D" - This is just wrong, since they aren't trending D

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It is clear that NV will become Safe D, yet some people believe it will be competitive again in the 2030-2040’s can someone explain this logic, and how NV does a reverse transformation with a growing Hispanic population

I actually think in 5-10 years, NV will be the next NM, and in 10-20 years it will be the next OR/WA with large Democratic margins as Clark and Washoe continue to trend D

It has trended and swung R in every election since 2008, as did every county in 2016 except for one uber rural one in the upper right corner of the state. Trump leads in the polls there, and Republicans lost by pretty competitive margins in 2018 (unlike say Colorado). It voted just 0.3% to the left of the nation in 2016 and went from D+2 to D+1 PVI wise. There's a bunch of indicators saying it's becoming more Republican, not less.

"Clark and Washoe continue to trend D" - This is just wrong, since they aren't trending D

2018 Colorado Elections - Republicans lose all statewide races by at least 5 points

2018 Nevada Elections - Republicans lose just 1 statewide race by more then 5 points, actually win some offices

[TDAS04]

It is clear that NV will become Safe D, yet some people believe it will be competitive again in the 2030-2040’s can someone explain this logic, and how NV does a reverse transformation with a growing Hispanic population

I actually think in 5-10 years, NV will be the next NM, and in 10-20 years it will be the next OR/WA with large Democratic margins as Clark and Washoe continue to trend D

It has trended and swung R in every election since 2008, as did every county in 2016 except for one uber rural one in the upper right corner of the state. Trump leads in the polls there, and Republicans lost by pretty competitive margins in 2018 (unlike say Colorado). It voted just 0.3% to the left of the nation in 2016 and went from D+2 to D+1 PVI wise. There's a bunch of indicators saying it's becoming more Republican, not less.

"Clark and Washoe continue to trend D" - This is just wrong, since they aren't trending D

Nevada is trending left.  Its sharp swing left in 2008 was not undone by the last two elections.  Certainly, take a look at the results prior to 2004.  Al Gore lost Nevada by 4 points despite winning the national PV.  Bill Clinton almost lost the state to Bob Dole!  And don’t forget about how much to the right of the nation Nevada was during the 1980s.  It’s voted to the left of the nation the last three times, but the last time prior to that was 1960.

It’s not unreasonable to believe that Nevada will continue to to trend Democratic in the near future, considering that it’s very urban, and almost minority-majority.

[Vosem]

It is clear that NV will become Safe D, yet some people believe it will be competitive again in the 2030-2040’s can someone explain this logic, and how NV does a reverse transformation with a growing Hispanic population

I actually think in 5-10 years, NV will be the next NM, and in 10-20 years it will be the next OR/WA with large Democratic margins as Clark and Washoe continue to trend D

It has trended and swung R in every election since 2008, as did every county in 2016 except for one uber rural one in the upper right corner of the state. Trump leads in the polls there, and Republicans lost by pretty competitive margins in 2018 (unlike say Colorado). It voted just 0.3% to the left of the nation in 2016 and went from D+2 to D+1 PVI wise. There's a bunch of indicators saying it's becoming more Republican, not less.

"Clark and Washoe continue to trend D" - This is just wrong, since they aren't trending D

Nevada is trending left.  Its sharp swing left in 2008 was not undone by the last two elections.  Certainly, take a look at the results prior to 2004.  Al Gore lost Nevada by 4 points despite winning the national PV.  Bill Clinton almost lost the state to Bob Dole!  And don’t forget about how much to the right of the nation Nevada was during the 1980s.  It’s voted to the left of the nation the last three times, but the last time prior to that was 1960.

It’s not unreasonable to believe that Nevada will continue to to trend Democratic in the near future, considering that it’s very urban, and almost minority-majority.

Nevada had the same lean as the country in 2004 (R+3, so zero lean) and 2016 (D+2, so zero lean). Between it did have a rather significant Democratic lean, but the change in lean from 2004-2008 has indeed been obliterated. In 2018 Nevada returned a vote to the right of the country.

It's not unreasonable to say that Nevada will trend left soon, given the reasons you cite, and it's a much more Democratic state now than it was in the 1990s. But it has actually been gradually drifting right since the late 2000s, and it's pretty clear that Trump has clawed back some ground there for the GOP. Nevada indeed returned a Republican row officer in 2018, which some states that are talked up rather more, like Wisconsin and Michigan, failed to do.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It is clear that NV will become Safe D, yet some people believe it will be competitive again in the 2030-2040’s can someone explain this logic, and how NV does a reverse transformation with a growing Hispanic population

I actually think in 5-10 years, NV will be the next NM, and in 10-20 years it will be the next OR/WA with large Democratic margins as Clark and Washoe continue to trend D

It has trended and swung R in every election since 2008, as did every county in 2016 except for one uber rural one in the upper right corner of the state. Trump leads in the polls there, and Republicans lost by pretty competitive margins in 2018 (unlike say Colorado). It voted just 0.3% to the left of the nation in 2016 and went from D+2 to D+1 PVI wise. There's a bunch of indicators saying it's becoming more Republican, not less.

"Clark and Washoe continue to trend D" - This is just wrong, since they aren't trending D

Nevada is trending left.  Its sharp swing left in 2008 was not undone by the last two elections.  Certainly, take a look at the results prior to 2004.  Al Gore lost Nevada by 4 points despite winning the national PV.  Bill Clinton almost lost the state to Bob Dole!  And don’t forget about how much to the right of the nation Nevada was during the 1980s.  It’s voted to the left of the nation the last three times, but the last time prior to that was 1960.

It’s not unreasonable to believe that Nevada will continue to to trend Democratic in the near future, considering that it’s very urban, and almost minority-majority.

Nevada had the same lean as the country in 2004 (R+3, so zero lean) and 2016 (D+2, so zero lean). Between it did have a rather significant Democratic lean, but the change in lean from 2004-2008 has indeed been obliterated. In 2018 Nevada returned a vote to the right of the country.

It's not unreasonable to say that Nevada will trend left soon, given the reasons you cite, and it's a much more Democratic state now than it was in the 1990s. But it has actually been gradually drifting right since the late 2000s, and it's pretty clear that Trump has clawed back some ground there for the GOP. Nevada indeed returned a Republican row officer in 2018, which some states that are talked up rather more, like Wisconsin and Michigan, failed to do.

Seriously, this. People love to talk about Wisconsin etc etc as uber competitive and Nevada as not, but if anything it should be the opposite. Republicans lost every statewide office in 2018 Wisconsin, and just one race was decided by under 1%. Meanwhile, in Nevada we held one statewide office, and came within a point in two more. Oh, and unlike 2018 Tammy Baldwin, we didn't get absolutely blown out of the water there. Plus, the polls, other results, surveys, etc etc, are all indicating the same thing: Nevada is more likely to vote Republican then any of the "big 3" in the Rust Belt (WI, MI, or PA_. In fact, looking at it today, I'd go so far as to wager it around Tilt R - my boldest prediction of the season, even adjusting for Nevada polling biases.

[ElectionsGuy]

It is clear that NV will become Safe D

It is not remotely clear. This is about as valid as saying Wisconsin will become Safe R for sure. Nevada trended Republican in 2012 and 2016 and has had very competitive statewide races save for 2014 where Republicans easily won. It's amazing how on Atlas a slightly Democratic state like Nevada can be characterized as 'inevitably Safe D'.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It is clear that NV will become Safe D

It is not remotely clear. This is about as valid as saying Wisconsin will become Safe R for sure. Nevada trended Republican in 2012 and 2016 and has had very competitive statewide races save for 2014 where Republicans easily won. It's amazing how on Atlas a slightly Democratic state like Nevada can be characterized as 'inevitably Safe D'.

^^^^^^^

Nevada Republicans literally did better then Wisconsin Republicans in 2018.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I've changed my username accordingly

[Xing]

Muh NV has trended R since 2008 is cherry-picking at its finest. Of course people ignore the obvious reasons why Obama overperformed there in 2008, the fact that going back just one more election cycle shows how it's trended, the fact that on Election Day in 2016, nearly everything went Trump's way and it still wasn't enough, the fact that it now has two Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, and Republicans hold only one statewide office. Not to mention it has a Democratic trifecta with solid majorities in the legislature, three out of four House seats are Democratic, and the two areas with the highest growth are the most Democratic parts of the state which make up the overwhelming majority of the population. Unless Republicans start doing better in cities, they're not getting anywhere in Nevada. Heller and Laxalt did just as well as Trump in rural NV (slightly better in a few counties), and still lost by more than he did.

Could NV go Republican in a very good year for Republicans? Theoretically yes, thus why it's Likely D instead of Safe D, but it's not a Toss-Up or Tilt R (lol), it won't vote right of MI or PA, and even scary socialists like Sanders and Warren would win the state fairly easily in a close race. Oh, and those who think that Trump leading in the polls means it's a Toss-Up need to look at the NV polls from 2018. Or 2016, or 2012, or 2010, or 2008, or even 2004 for that matter.

[YE]

Obama overpreformed in the state bigly in 2008 due to the recession. Outside of 2014 in which the unions basically didn’t try, the state has maintained its Democratic lean, winning almost all of the statewide races since then. Outside of Washoe, the state is fairly inelastic with the rurals and select suburbs being outvoted slightly by urban Las Vegas (giving less weight to the PVI argument). Polling in Nevada is basically worthless or at least tends to skew R a couple points.

It’s not any harder than this. If Trump wins NV, he’ll long have won the election outright in 2020.

[Annatar]

Muh NV has trended R since 2008 is cherry-picking at its finest. Of course people ignore the obvious reasons why Obama overperformed there in 2008, the fact that going back just one more election cycle shows how it's trended, the fact that on Election Day in 2016, nearly everything went Trump's way and it still wasn't enough, the fact that it now has two Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, and Republicans hold only one statewide office. Not to mention it has a Democratic trifecta with solid majorities in the legislature, three out of four House seats are Democratic, and the two areas with the highest growth are the most Democratic parts of the state which make up the overwhelming majority of the population. Unless Republicans start doing better in cities, they're not getting anywhere in Nevada. Heller and Laxalt did just as well as Trump in rural NV (slightly better in a few counties), and still lost by more than he did.

Could NV go Republican in a very good year for Republicans? Theoretically yes, thus why it's Likely D instead of Safe D, but it's not a Toss-Up or Tilt R (lol), it won't vote right of MI or PA, and even scary socialists like Sanders and Warren would win the state fairly easily in a close race. Oh, and those who think that Trump leading in the polls means it's a Toss-Up need to look at the NV polls from 2018. Or 2016, or 2012, or 2010, or 2008, or even 2004 for that matter.

When it comes to urban areas it should be noted Clark county trended Republican in 2016, if Clark county continues to shift Republican the state will flip Republican, Clinton got only 13,000 more votes than Obama in Clark county, Trump got 31,000 more, Clark county isn't like other metro areas which swung against Trump, its full of Hispanics and non-college whites which are groups Trump gained with in 2016 and can gain with in 2020. You say Republicans need to do better in cities, well as I pointed out, Clark county is literally shifting Republican.

Frankly this forum is delusional about Nevada, a state where Trump's approval was higher in 2018 than Pennsylvania or Michigan and where the margin of defeat for Republicans was less than it was nationally is a total toss-up, especially since its been trending R for 2 elections and it doesn't have a lot of white liberals which are the group that has swung against Trump.

[Xing]

Muh NV has trended R since 2008 is cherry-picking at its finest. Of course people ignore the obvious reasons why Obama overperformed there in 2008, the fact that going back just one more election cycle shows how it's trended, the fact that on Election Day in 2016, nearly everything went Trump's way and it still wasn't enough, the fact that it now has two Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, and Republicans hold only one statewide office. Not to mention it has a Democratic trifecta with solid majorities in the legislature, three out of four House seats are Democratic, and the two areas with the highest growth are the most Democratic parts of the state which make up the overwhelming majority of the population. Unless Republicans start doing better in cities, they're not getting anywhere in Nevada. Heller and Laxalt did just as well as Trump in rural NV (slightly better in a few counties), and still lost by more than he did.

Could NV go Republican in a very good year for Republicans? Theoretically yes, thus why it's Likely D instead of Safe D, but it's not a Toss-Up or Tilt R (lol), it won't vote right of MI or PA, and even scary socialists like Sanders and Warren would win the state fairly easily in a close race. Oh, and those who think that Trump leading in the polls means it's a Toss-Up need to look at the NV polls from 2018. Or 2016, or 2012, or 2010, or 2008, or even 2004 for that matter.

When it comes to urban areas it should be noted Clark county trended Republican in 2016, if Clark county continues to shift Republican the state will flip Republican, Clinton got only 13,000 more votes than Obama Clark county, Trump got 31,000 more, Clark county isn't like other metro areas which swung against Trump, its full of Hispanics and non-college whites which are groups Trump gained with in 2016 and can gain with in 2020. You say Republicans need to do better in cities, well as I pointed out, Clark county is literally shifting Republican.

Frankly this forum is delusional about Nevada, a state where Trump's approval was higher in 2018 than Pennsylvania or Michigan and where the margin of defeat for Republicans was less than it was nationally is a total toss-up, especially since its been trending R for 2 elections and it doesn't have a lot of white liberals which are the group that has swung against Trump.

Clark shifted Republican from 2012-16, but that doesn't mean it's trending Republican. Heller and Laxalt did worse than Trump in Clark and Washoe, which is why they lost by more. There's not much reason to think that Trump will do better with Hispanics, particularly those in the Southwest, and while education is a factor (it's why Nevada was fairly close in 2016), the trend among non-college white voters has been far stronger in rural areas. Democrats turn out consistently in Nevada (with 2014 being an exception), and the union presence also makes Nevada more Democratic than one might assume. 

If you really believe those, ahem *polls* showing Trump's approval higher in Nevada (as well as Virginia, I might add), than the Midwestern states, I'll refer you to the last part of my post. If you want to believe Nevada is a pure Toss-Up, and that Trump can win it even if he loses MI/PA/WI, be my guest, but don't say I (as well as many others) didn't warn you.

[538Electoral]

It may be tricky, But Trump definitely has a shot in a state he lost by less than 2.5% in 2016.

[Annatar]

Clark county also trended R in 2008-2012.

[Yellowhammer]

Nevada is Tilt/Lean D in 2020, but I'd appreciate it if the intellectually dishonest hacks here stop trumpeting the "it's Safe D / trending sharply to the Left" lies. Nevada is objectively not trending D. Maybe it will in 2020, who knows, but if you look at the relatively recent shifts in presidential election results, it is not.
And btw, Including now-irrelevant, 15-year-old election results in your data set is laughable.