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December 10, 2019, 03:32:44 am
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  Why doesn't Wisconsin seem to have a clear political trend?
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Author Topic: Why doesn't Wisconsin seem to have a clear political trend?  (Read 267 times)
Scottholes 2.0
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« on: November 14, 2019, 06:35:56 pm »
« edited: November 14, 2019, 06:46:34 pm by Scottholes 2.0 »

Let's see: The state had two close presidential elections in the past 19 years. Gore only won it by 0.2 percent, Kerry by 0.4 percent, and now Trump by 0.7 percent, but he still won less than 50 percent of the vote and fewer votes than Romney. I know the WI GOP has become more strategically superior to the WI Democratic Party, but that's due to gerrymandering and dark money, so the state appears to have shifted rightward, but the trend isn't clear.

Almost 20 years later, the presidential election in the state is expected to be very close. States like Michigan and Pennsylvania have trended slightly R. If WI has trended R, then it has been very, very mild compared to those states.
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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2019, 06:49:10 pm »

You do realize that you're triggering about half of the forum with this topic, right? lol

Anyway, while I do think Wisconsin is more Republican than it was during Obama's presidency (especially early on), I don't think it's clear that Wisconsin will continue to trend further Republican, and it might simply remain a close swing state. Part of that is probably because there are two opposing trends in the state. Rural Wisconsin is trending Republican, and even some of the less Republican-leaning rural areas (WI-03, for example) are shifting rightward. However, the WOW counties are shifting at least somewhat leftward at the same time. While they're still very strongly Republican-leaning, the margins have gone down significantly. Also, growth in Madison is another factor in the Democrats' favor.

Going forward, if these trends continue, the overall statewide trend will probably come down to which areas are gaining the most population.
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Laki
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« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2019, 04:51:58 pm »

WI isn't going to trend right, but is trending right relative to the nation. As the GOP evolves, states like New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio and Michigan are going to trend rightwards. I'm not sure about PA as rural areas there are pretty maxed out. Even if they vote Democratic in 2020, they might very well go Republican in 2024.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2019, 05:14:51 am »

You do realize that you're triggering about half of the forum with this topic, right? lol

Oh yes, I'm aware - LOL! Thanks for your thorough analysis.

WI isn't going to trend right, but is trending right relative to the nation. As the GOP evolves, states like New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio and Michigan are going to trend rightwards. I'm not sure about PA as rural areas there are pretty maxed out. Even if they vote Democratic in 2020, they might very well go Republican in 2024.

This is a perfect way to put it! Thanks!
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