My 2040 map with trends in a close election

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Safe D: CA, CO, NY, DC
Likely D: MA, WA, NV, NM, IL, MD
Lean D: OR, UT, GA, SC, NJ
Toss-up: VT, PA, NC, MS, AK
Lean R: AZ, MN, VA
Likely R: MT, KS, MO, LA, WI, MI, DE, CT, NH, ME
Safe R: ID, WY, ND, SD, NE, IA, OK, AR, AL (although high floor for D's but low ceiling), TN, WV, KY, IN, OH

With current EV's: Dem 216, Rep 233, Toss-up 89, but as the Dem states grow in population, that will probably around equal.

If i have to call a complete toss-up, i give narrowly TX and MS to the Dems, and the other states to the Republicans

I still think this is a narrow Dem victory, but Texas will be the new Florida, and probably be tilt D. Republicans will be likelier to win the PV, while Dems win the EV, but by than i expect the EV to be cancelled, and IRV to be called in many states, as well as split EV's (if the EV still exists), and Florida is growing as well, so they'll likely have 35-40 EV's as well, but TX and CA's EV's will give the Dem a slight advantage in an extremely close election like these, which i foresee as the future of the states.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

What will likely happen, especially if the EC gets abolished is that we get split parties and them joining in coalitions, in a left bloc and right bloc. Possibly far-right and minor far-left excluded. But from Omar to Warren and a bit more to the right will all be in left-wing parties: Social Liberals, Social Democratic and the Democratic Party. While the GOP will either become the main right-wing or the popular far-right party, one of the two depending on how it evolves. I even don't exclude a major re-alignment where the GOP becomes the main left-wing party and the Democrats the main right-wing party, if we get some kind of 5MS (Italy) - EM (France) re-alignment.

But a five party system like in France: Le Pen / GOP / Macron / Democrats / Green-socialist-communist could happen. Something major is definitely going to happen or the GOP will only be powerful on a local level, which is also a possibility, as many states are definitely never going to vote liberal. I can see Oklahoma elections getting close between a far-right and a right-wing party as an example, while elections in California will be close between liberals / social democrats and the far-left, as an example.

While this might be the map on a presidential level. This could be the map on a local level, barring libertarians and local state parties having power in some states as well.

grey = European kind of far-right
yellow = macronistas
red = social democrat
green = far-left
blue = neoliberals

States like Alabama, Utah or Alaska might even have their own party dominating. The Alabama Party (most far-right), Utah Party (utah interests), Alaska Party (populist)

[538Electoral]

Looks fair.

[OBD]

Huh. Do you have explanations for Utah going Dem and parts of the sunbelt (AZ, VA) swinging back to the GOP while states like GA and SC are going the other way? Minorities could be an explanation but that doesn't make complete sense, and Mormon Utah crossing over is very surprising. Otherwise, this is very cool!

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Huh. Do you have explanations for Utah going Dem and parts of the sunbelt (AZ, VA) swinging back to the GOP while states like GA and SC are going the other way? Minorities could be an explanation but that doesn't make complete sense, and Mormon Utah crossing over is very surprising. Otherwise, this is very cool!

I think rapid growth in Utah's main city and suburb will trend it hard left. But Arizona might be a mistake. I think both states have a lot of VA center-left population, but not really left-wing with many moderates now choosing a moderate Dem instead of a Trumpian Republican. When Republicans return to the center-right platform, AZ and VA will swing right-wing. Also, I expect latino's to be more swingy than black people, and a larger vote share among Hispanics will make those states more competitive, although it doesn't weigh against the Democratic trend that's on steroids, with massive young families migrating to those states. It's definitely possible AZ will be a likely D state.

VA will not swing so much left, as the "rich" suburban populations will swing back to the left when they get a good option. Romney would have won VA if he had to run against Warren, and i think that will be the future of those two parties. I think VA will trend surely left, but relative to the nation swing back to the right. As the GOP evolves, this will make VA a toss-up, lean D or lean R state i guess.

But they're subject to debate. A 2040 map is definitely hard to make.

[DeSantis4Prez]

Likely R Connecticut makes me happy for 20 years from now