Texas, it's bigger than France

[Sam Spade]

I basically agree with jimrtex here. 

1-5 are going to be probable Republican, except for 3 which could be held and definitely competitive with the right type of Democrat.  1 is unlikely, though there is hope; 5 has less hope than 1; 2 and 4 equals no hope.

6-8 are safe Republican.

9 is probable Republican, except for Chet Edwards and races would be close (like 2002/2004).

10 is safe Republican.

11 is similar to Ron Paul's old district.  I would be more optimistic than jimrtex is on Democrat chances, but the exurban growth of Brazoria County tempers my optimism a bit.  It certainly could be competitive.

12-15 should be safe Democrat, except for 15 (probable Democrat), which includes Harlingen where a lot of old-time Anglos live and leans more Republican (Bush carried Cameron County in 2004)

16-20 will be safe Republican.  I agree with jimrtex that the Democrats will run candidates in 16 and 19, possibly 20 also, but I don't necessarily see them getting to the promised land.  However, I'll label 16, 19 and 20 probable Republican, just in case.

21 will be safe Republican for now, but it's more of an inner-suburb Dallas district that, if the Southern inner-suburbs ever follow the suburban patterns of other states, could become more Democrat as time goes.  Democrats will run candidates here.

22 is safe Democrat.

23 is lean Republican, but could be competitive.  jimrtex is more bullish for Republicans than I think it should be.  Granted, most of the exurbs in Williamson and northern Travis County are fairly strong Republican and I don't think the Democratic tilt of the areas around the Capitol will counterbalance that totally, but there will be plenty of Democratic candidates (probably too liberal) coming out of the Capitol area to run, along with Republican candidates from the exurbs.

24 is lean Republican, because of those ultra-conservative San Antonio, but could be competitive.  Once again, there will be Democratic candidates (probably too liberal) coming out of the Capitol area to run against exurban Republicans.

The two Bexar county CDs (25-26) would split, the northern one goes Republican, the southern one goes Democrat.  Both are fairly safe, though not impossible for either party to chance into a win.

27-30 are safe Republican, except for 28 which is only probable since it is Fort Bend County and includes black areas.  Democrats could win here and it is a CD that is trending Democrat over the long haul.

31 and 32 are safe Democrat inner-city CD's that are only interesting for the reasons jimrtex pointed out.

Safe Republican:  1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 17, 18, 21, 27, 29, 30

Probable Republican:  (In order from easiest to hold to hardest) 20, 5, 19, 16, 25, 23, 24, 11, 3

Odd Districts: 9

Probable Democrat:  (In order from easiest to hold to hardest) 26, 15

Safe Democrat:  12, 13, 14, 22, 31, 32

In short, the Districts would probably be about the same way they are now in voting representation.  Of course, a lot of this depends on incumbency.

[jimrtex]

11 is similar to Ron Paul's old district.  I would be more optimistic than jimrtex is on Democrat chances, but the exurban growth of Brazoria County tempers my optimism a bit.  It certainly could be competitive.

Galveston County is about evenly split between suburban Houston (area just south of NASA) and the island and Texas City areas, and has recently elected Republicans to countywide office.  Brazoria County has about the same population as Galveston County, and has high suburban growth in the northern portion of the county due to the opening of the South Freeway.  This is the area of undeveloped land that is closest to downtown Houston (5 to 10 miles closer than areas to the north and west).  DeLay's district became less favorable to him because he gave up parts of the Brazosport area (the claw that extended into Brazoria County was part of the Democrat's GOP packing scheme).   About 20% of the district is in Harris County.  While Baytown will vote slightly Democrat, the areas closer to Clear Lake will vote strongly GOP.

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24 includes the UT and capital areas north of the Colorado River (elsewhere the river is the boundary).  This will make 24 the more competitive seat.   Even if the Democrats managed a small majority in the Travis County portion of the district, the Williamson County portion would tip the district.

24 is split 59% Travis; 27% Hays and Comal; and 14% Bexar.  This would be a highly polarized election, with the respective parties possibly piling up 70% of their votes in their half of the district.   I would make this a probable Democrat district, and shift 23 further to the top of your list of probable Republican districts.

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Over the long haul, 11, 27, and 28 will shift more into the suburban counties.  Currently they are: 11, 79% in Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers; 27, 45% in Montgomery; and 28, 55% in Fort Bend.  A new seat would then be created in Harris County, which would likely be competitive Democratic.

[minionofmidas]

1 (Northeast) Sandlin might have held on here, but he had been challenged even under the 90 Democrat gerrymander.
2 (East Texas).  No chance for Democrat in district that includes Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, and Nacogdoches.  Turner represented a district that carefully avoided more populated areas.

Basically, if D2 can't elect a Democrat, D1 is highly competitive. If D1 is safe-ish for Reps, then D2 is only safe-ish either. I'd have to have a closer look at population distribution, but looks like the first of these is correct. Of course it would have to be the right type of Democrat.

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The areas to the North are not more Republican than the areas to the East of Jefferson County. Probably less so. (Not thinking of presidential elections here.) This isn't safe, but it sure favors Dems.

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No contest.

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No contest (although Charlie Stenholm did carry quite a few counties last time around.)

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When it was cut more explicitly with the purpose of getting him out.

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No contest.

[minionofmidas]

11. (Galveston Bay).  Houston suburbs balance Galveston and southern mainland of Galveston County, but Brazoria is very Republican, and will outvote Baytown.  SE Harris suburbs will vote GOP.

Should normally be safe GOP thanks to Brazoria, true.

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Yeah, all rocksolid Dem really.

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Oh yes there is. Dems actually topped the congressional poll across Dallas County (and Harris County too) in 2004. Obviously the 3 outer districts are utterly safe Rep, I'd have to find me some more details before making predictions on the other three, but there is certainly not material for two safe Rep districts in them. At best (for you), one almost-as-safe-as-now (where all Republicans have been surgically removed) Dem seats and two lean Rep ones, but I need convincing.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, Austin can complain about this map too, that's true. Both very interesting seats that might go either way, quite possibly both Rep leaners.
Bexar might prove interesting, leaning to a split, yes, both potentially winnable for either party yes, but the chance of both going Dem, while not all that high, is a hell of a lot higher than the chance of both going Rep. (Another county that voted Dem in 2004 Congressionals, despite the more Hispanic area obviously having lower turnout, and I very much doubt removing that northern portion makes the county more Republican.)

[minionofmidas]

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27 is Republicanism Concentrate, 29 is also rock solid. 30 is solid Rep for now I suppose (how close is it to Culberson's current district?), not sure for how long. 28 is interesting - DeLay would have lost in 2004 if all votes from Brazoria County would have magically disappeared, by the way. But yeah, it obviously does lean Rep.


So, 17 Rep including some not so safe ones, 10 Dem including some not so safe ones, 5 I can't predict due to limited knowledge.

[Sam Spade]

11 is similar to Ron Paul's old district.  I would be more optimistic than jimrtex is on Democrat chances, but the exurban growth of Brazoria County tempers my optimism a bit.  It certainly could be competitive.

Galveston County is about evenly split between suburban Houston (area just south of NASA) and the island and Texas City areas, and has recently elected Republicans to countywide office.  Brazoria County has about the same population as Galveston County, and has high suburban growth in the northern portion of the county due to the opening of the South Freeway.  This is the area of undeveloped land that is closest to downtown Houston (5 to 10 miles closer than areas to the north and west).  DeLay's district became less favorable to him because he gave up parts of the Brazosport area (the claw that extended into Brazoria County was part of the Democrat's GOP packing scheme).   About 20% of the district is in Harris County.  While Baytown will vote slightly Democrat, the areas closer to Clear Lake will vote strongly GOP.

As being from Houston myself  , I agree with your analysis here, esp. towards Brazoria County and will change my designation to safe GOP.

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I did not realize that some of 24 creeped north of the Colorado River to include UT, etc.  This would make 23 much more safe for Republicans and 24 competitive and polarized, though lean Democrat.

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Over the long haul, 11, 27, and 28 will shift more into the suburban counties.  Currently they are: 11, 79% in Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers; 27, 45% in Montgomery; and 28, 55% in Fort Bend.  A new seat would then be created in Harris County, which would likely be competitive Democratic.

[/quote]

Agreed.

[jimrtex]

16-22 (DFW).  There is currently one Democrat from the area, and there is no reason that the districts that I have drawn will perform differently.

Oh yes there is. Dems actually topped the congressional poll across Dallas County (and Harris County too) in 2004. Obviously the 3 outer districts are utterly safe Rep, I'd have to find me some more details before making predictions on the other three, but there is certainly not material for two safe Rep districts in them. At best (for you), one almost-as-safe-as-now (where all Republicans have been surgically removed) Dem seats and two lean Rep ones, but I need convincing.

In Harris County, this was because 2 candidates did not have GOP opponents, while one GOP candidate did not have a Democrat opponent.  If you look at the RRC race, the GOP had a +86K plurality in Harris County; along with +65K in Montgomery, +18K in Fort Bend, +23K in Brazoria, and +6K in Galveston.

The 4 seats in Harris County will split 2:2, all with at least a 60% majority.  The suburban counties will ensure the other 3 districts are GOP held.

In Dallas County, it was a similar situation, with two uncontested seats, one Dem held and entirely in Dallas County, and one GOP held but mostly in Collin County.   The GOP won the RRC race by +4K.  My districts for Dallas County are remarkably similar to the districts created by the Texas Legislature in 2003.  Pete Sessions defeated Martin Frost by 20K in the North Dallas district.

The two seats wholly in Dallas County will split 1:1.  The suburban (and Tarrant) counties will ensure the other seats are GOP held.

[jimrtex]

1 (Northeast) Sandlin might have held on here, but he had been challenged even under the 90 Democrat gerrymander.
2 (East Texas).  No chance for Democrat in district that includes Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, and Nacogdoches.  Turner represented a district that carefully avoided more populated areas.

Basically, if D2 can't elect a Democrat, D1 is highly competitive. If D1 is safe-ish for Reps, then D2 is only safe-ish either. I'd have to have a closer look at population distribution, but looks like the first of these is correct. Of course it would have to be the right type of Democrat.

57.7% in RRC race, with big margins in the more western counties especially Grayson (Sherman-Dennison) and Hunt (Greenville) which are the 1st and 3rd largest counties.  The GOP also carried Bowie (Texarkana), Lamar (Paris), and Harrison (Marshall).  The Democrat candidate carried 4 counties, mostly very small.

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The areas to the North are not more Republican than the areas to the East of Jefferson County. Probably less so. (Not thinking of presidential elections here.) This isn't safe, but it sure favors Dems.[/quote]
The areas to the east of Jefferson County don't vote in Texas elections.   The RRC race was 48.2% GOP to 51.8% Dem.   The rest of the district nibbled a 17.4K margin from Jefferson County down to 7.6K

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No contest (although Charlie Stenholm did carry quite a few counties last time around.)[/quote]
In 2002, he almost lost.  He failed to carry his home county (Taylor) as well as large counties of Erath, Brown, Tom Green.  The largest county that he carried was Wise.   Wise is not in my district, but Lubbock is.

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When it was cut more explicitly with the purpose of getting him out.[/quote]
He almost lost in 2002 when the districts imposed by the federal judges tried to preserve the partisan 1990s gerrymander.  Like the 2002 district, the core of my district is McLennan, Bell, and part of Williamson, plus smaller counties to the northwest.

[jimrtex]

Yes, Austin can complain about this map too, that's true.

Travis County is entitled to about 1.25 representatives.  It makes more sense to split the county than to create one whole district, and having another district that includes areas to the north and south that are not linked by any highways.

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GOP representatives had a +10K majority (all 4 races were contested by both parties).  The areas in Bonilla's seat (+45K), and Smith's seat (+49K) would be in the northern district.  The areas in Gonzalez's district (-58k) and Cuellar's district (-26K) form the southern district.  The area along I-35 that would be in 24 is a fairly small portion of the county (about 6%).  Comal County (New Braunfels) voted 80% Republican, and is the heartland of German Texas (even San Antonio is historically a German rather than a Hispanic city).  Hays County voted 60% GOP.

[Sam Spade]

1-2:  Basically, if D2 can't elect a Democrat, D1 is highly competitive. If D1 is safe-ish for Reps, then D2 is only safe-ish either. I'd have to have a closer look at population distribution, but looks like the first of these is correct. Of course it would have to be the right type of Democrat.

That's not exactly true.  Northeast Texas has had a great erosion in Democrat power, especially in the larger towns in the last decade.  Also, there just aren't many good candidates coming from the Democrat party bench in these areas any more to run for Congress.  East Texas use to be strongly Democrat and had a strong bench.  Now the only decently strong bench is in far Southeast Texas in Jefferson and Galveston County. 

CD2 is ultra-safe Rep. (80%-100% Rep), CD1 is probable Rep. (60%-80%) and I'm probably being optimistic there only because the rural areas have shown less Democrat erosion.

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The area to the east of Jefferson County is Louisiana.  The area to the north and west used to vote like Louisiana, but that was ten years ago.  Liberty County is close to becoming Houston exurbs.  And Orange County is no longer the conservative Democrat area it used to be. 

Once again, it depends on quality of candidate and there will be a lot of Beaumont vs. the rest of the CD in any races that does not really impact party, etc.  For example Nick Lampson, who was from Beaumont, always won (even in close races) because he had Galveston County to help him (which it wouldn't under this map), not because he did well in these other areas.  I still call it Lean Rep. (50%-60%)

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Charlie Stenholm is the last of a dying breed, unfortunately.

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The 2002 District was based on the map of the 1990s.  Both in 2002 and 2004 the races were close and this time (2006) probably won't be any different.  This CD is probably safe Rep. (80%-100%) in a non-incumbent election.

[Sam Spade]

16-22:  Oh yes there is. Dems actually topped the congressional poll across Dallas County (and Harris County too) in 2004. Obviously the 3 outer districts are utterly safe Rep, I'd have to find me some more details before making predictions on the other three, but there is certainly not material for two safe Rep districts in them. At best (for you), one almost-as-safe-as-now (where all Republicans have been surgically removed) Dem seats and two lean Rep ones, but I need convincing.

Since I agree with jimrtex concerning Dallas, I'll lay it out here.  I described 16, 19 and 20 as probable Republican, but really it's the question of whether in a non-incumbent race, a Republican would naturally have a 75% or 80% chance of winning the race, frankly.

16:  Fort Worth exurbs, some of Dallas suburbs and exurbs in the Metroplex(northern part of District).  Entirely Tarrant County.  Safe Rep. (80%-100%), maybe 75% (optimistic)

17.  Eastern part of Dallas County.  Older line suburbs that will vote (55%-60% GOP).  Also contains Rockwall County and other exurban Dallas Counties.  These are presently parts of Ralph Hall's CD (a Dem turned Rep).  He nearly got defeated a couple of times by having the D next to his name, even though he voted R.  Safe Rep. (80%-100%)

18.  Mostly Collin County, which means Plano and McKinney.  Safe Rep.  (80%-100%)

19.  Fort Worth and northern exurbs of Fort Worth.  Used to be Democrat (about 20-30 years ago), but now Republican.  Safe Rep. (80%-100%), maybe 75% (optimistic)

20.  Will contain some black areas in the western part of Dallas, but will be totally swarmed by rapidly growing Dallas exurbs in the northern parts of Dallas and Tarrant counties around Lewisville, etc.  Some older-line suburbs in the Arlington/Irving areas.  Safe Rep. (80%-100%), maybe 75% (optimistic)

21.  As jimrtex said, this is extremely similar to the Pete Sessions/Martin Frost CD-32 of 2004, so much so, I really don't see any differences.  If anything, it might be a tad more favorable, since it includes more of north Dallas (white) and less of south Dallas (minority).  Old-line suburbs that have moved Democrat steadily over the years, just not enough.  In non-incumbent races, this is probable Rep. (60%-80%) or lean Rep. (50%-60%) if you want to be optimistic.

22.  Safe Democrat. (80%-100%) This is south Dallas, black with growing Hispanic population (where I wouldn't go at night) and some Dallas exurbs west of 35E.  The south Dallas contingent of the CD would outvote the exurbs.

[Sam Spade]

Yes, Austin can complain about this map too, that's true. Both very interesting seats that might go either way, quite possibly both Rep leaners.

If jimrtex is correct on the map and UT and the Capitol are within CD24, then CD23 will be probable to safe Rep.  When you remove UT and the Capitol, Travis County is about a 50%-50% split between Reps and Democrats nowadays with the burgeoning exurbs (more libertarian than most Texas ones).  Williamson County (GOP with a libertarian twist) will put the margins over.

I maintain that CD24 will be lean to probable Democrat, because I simply don't think there's enough conservative Bexar exurbs/San Marcos/New Braunfels to overcome the liberal center of Austin if it is in CD24. 

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Of course not, but the northern portion of Bexar is considerably Republican-leaning , in the same way the south is considerably Democrat-leaning and the areas of 25 vote Republican in the same way the areas of 26 vote Democrat.  jimrtex already laid out the figures wrt present CDs.  Also, San Antonio suburbs are extremely conservative, actually moreso than Dallas and Houston ones strangely enough.

25 will be Rep. and 26 will be Dem., unless really good candidates are drafted.

[minionofmidas]

16-22 (DFW).  There is currently one Democrat from the area, and there is no reason that the districts that I have drawn will perform differently.

Oh yes there is. Dems actually topped the congressional poll across Dallas County (and Harris County too) in 2004. Obviously the 3 outer districts are utterly safe Rep, I'd have to find me some more details before making predictions on the other three, but there is certainly not material for two safe Rep districts in them. At best (for you), one almost-as-safe-as-now (where all Republicans have been surgically removed) Dem seats and two lean Rep ones, but I need convincing.

In Harris County, this was because 2 candidates did not have GOP opponents, while one GOP candidate did not have a Democrat opponent.  If you look at the RRC race, the GOP had a +86K plurality in Harris County; along with +65K in Montgomery, +18K in Fort Bend, +23K in Brazoria, and +6K in Galveston.

The 4 seats in Harris County will split 2:2, all with at least a 60% majority.  The suburban counties will ensure the other 3 districts are GOP held.

Yes, I counted them as such.

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That's ... like ... nothing.[/quote] My districts for Dallas County are remarkably similar to the districts created by the Texas Legislature in 2003. [/quote]Oh, OK then. Take two from "not determined" and add them to "lean to secure-if-not-rocksolid Rep". (The other seat I'd been wondering about was the between-Dallas-and-Fort Worth one, o/c)

[minionofmidas]

1 (Northeast) Sandlin might have held on here, but he had been challenged even under the 90 Democrat gerrymander.
2 (East Texas).  No chance for Democrat in district that includes Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, and Nacogdoches.  Turner represented a district that carefully avoided more populated areas.

Basically, if D2 can't elect a Democrat, D1 is highly competitive. If D1 is safe-ish for Reps, then D2 is only safe-ish either. I'd have to have a closer look at population distribution, but looks like the first of these is correct. Of course it would have to be the right type of Democrat.

57.7% in RRC race, with big margins in the more western counties especially Grayson (Sherman-Dennison) and Hunt (Greenville) which are the 1st and 3rd largest counties.  The GOP also carried Bowie (Texarkana), Lamar (Paris), and Harrison (Marshall).  The Democrat candidate carried 4 counties, mostly very small.

Yes...I doubt it means all that much though.

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The areas to the North are not more Republican than the areas to the East of Jefferson County. Probably less so. (Not thinking of presidential elections here.) This isn't safe, but it sure favors Dems.[/quote]
The areas to the east of Jefferson County don't vote in Texas elections.   The RRC race was 48.2% GOP to 51.8% Dem.   The rest of the district nibbled a 17.4K margin from Jefferson County down to 7.6K[/quote]Eh, East is West.

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No contest (although Charlie Stenholm did carry quite a few counties last time around.)[/quote]
In 2002, he almost lost.  He failed to carry his home county (Taylor) as well as large counties of Erath, Brown, Tom Green.  The largest county that he carried was Wise.   Wise is not in my district, but Lubbock is.[/quote]He did carry Taylor in 2004., when Wise was not in his district, but Lubbock was. (He carried 5 counties - Castro, Fisher, Kent, Taylor, and the portion of Nolan to be included in his district. Most of these are tiny.) Mind you, that train's departed, this is a safe Rep district now.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, Austin can complain about this map too, that's true.

Travis County is entitled to about 1.25 representatives.  It makes more sense to split the county than to create one whole district, and having another district that includes areas to the north and south that are not linked by any highways.

I know it does. Given your initial outline it was unavoidable. If I were from Austin, though, I probably wouldn't be seeing it that way.

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GOP representatives had a +10K majority (all 4 races were contested by both parties).  The areas in Bonilla's seat (+45K), and Smith's seat (+49K) would be in the northern district.  The areas in Gonzalez's district (-58k) and Cuellar's district (-26K) form the southern district.[/quote]You're right, I can't add. I had the Rep vote 20K too small.

[minionofmidas]

Sam, you either have a radically different concept of a 75% probability, or a radically different concept of the meaning of the term "safe" than me.
(And of course, unless a place is really really weird, a non-gerrymandered, or even an unsophistically gerrymandered, map is bound to produce fewer safe seats...)

[Sam Spade]

Sam, you either have a radically different concept of a 75% probability, or a radically different concept of the meaning of the term "safe" than me.
(And of course, unless a place is really really weird, a non-gerrymandered, or even an unsophistically gerrymandered, map is bound to produce fewer safe seats...)

Well, there's two ways of looking at the map, as far as I'm concerned. 

If we're determining safeness with incumbents added, then most CDs will earn the safe label (as enough of the incumbents' present constituents will be included in the new CD).

If we're determining safeness without incumbents, then we must address two major issues: 

What is the voting population of the CD tend to vote like? (at a local and national level).  We have already been analyzing this as such.

What is the quality of the potential candidates of both parties (ie, what we like to call the "backbench") who would be available to run in the CD?  This is the main quotient that I'm adding to the probability factor, because without good candidates, a competitively drawn CD will fall to the other party.

Right now, this is one of the major factors why I can't be as bullish as I'd like to potentially be.  The Democratic "backbench" in many of these more competitive Districts (northeast Texas towns, Dallas suburbs, Houston suburbs, etc.) is just simply non-existant, whereas the Republican "backbench" is extremely strong and deep. 

For example, I should be bullish on CD28 in Fort Bend County, but the Democratic bench/GOTV effort, etc. in that county is almost non-existant, whereas the Republicans would have a number of candidates to choose from.  The small strip of Harris County included in the CD is minority-majority, but the minority influence in the CD is simply not great enough to carry it at this time and the other areas of the CD will be leery to vote for a minority.  In this situation, I have to make the probability of the CD going Republican higher simply because of candidate quality (or quantity)

I don't disagree with your assertion that a non-gerrymandered map is bound to produce fewer safe seats; I am just adding the quotient of potential winning candidates and local "backbench" knowledge to the mix in my probability factors, that's all. 

[jimrtex]

(The other seat I'd been wondering about was the between-Dallas-and-Fort Worth one, o/c)

This would be Grand Prairie, Irving, Carrollton, and the Tarrant suburbs west of DFW (airport).

[jimrtex]

He did carry Taylor in 2004., when Wise was not in his district, but Lubbock was. (He carried 5 counties - Castro, Fisher, Kent, Taylor, and the portion of Nolan to be included in his district. Most of these are tiny.) Mind you, that train's departed, this is a safe Rep district now.

He carried Taylor County (Abilene) when he was facing a candidate from Lubbock County.  He did not carry Taylor County when facing a candidate from Tom Green County (San Angelo).