Poll: Democrats Strongly Favored To Win Congress

[Frodo]

AP Poll: Congressional Democrats favored

WILL LESTER
Associated Press

WASHINGTON - In an ominous election-year sign for Republicans, Americans are leaning sharply toward wanting Democrats to take control of Congress, an AP-Ipsos poll finds. Democrats are favored 49 percent to 36 percent.

The poll was taken this week as Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff pleaded guilty to tax evasion, fraud and corruption charges and agreed to aid a federal investigation of members of Congress and other government officials.

President Bush's job approval remains low - 40 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll. About as many approve of his handling of Iraq, where violence against Iraqis and U.S. troops has been surging.

"I don't think anyone is hitting the panic button," said Rich Bond, a former Republican National Committee chairman. "But there is an acute recognition of the grim environment that both parties are operating in."

"If the Democrats had any leadership or any message, they could be poised for a good year," Bond said. "But in the absence of that, they have not been able to capitalize on Republican woes. Because of the size of the GOP majority, Democrats have to run the board, and I don't see that happening."

The public's unease with Republican leadership in the White House and Congress creates a favorable environment for Democrats, said Democratic consultant Dane Strother.

"The problem is you don't vote for a party," Strother said. "You're voting for a member of Congress. And we're a year away."

source


And here is the link to the poll results in PDF format.

[Joe Republic]

Too bad they'll be sorely disappointed.

[Gustaf]

This is likely to end up as classic voter behaviour; they're gonna want other people to vote in Democrats, not themselves because their Republican congressman is such a nice guy, really. And so on...

[Ben.]

This is likely to end up as classic voter behaviour; they're gonna want other people to vote in Democrats, not themselves because their Republican congressman is such a nice guy, really. And so on...

So very true… that said I can see the Dems winning anything from 8-10 house seats on a good night.

[Gustaf]

This is likely to end up as classic voter behaviour; they're gonna want other people to vote in Democrats, not themselves because their Republican congressman is such a nice guy, really. And so on...

So very true… that said I can see the Dems winning anything from 8-10 house seats on a good night.

Democrats are very likely to make some gains, yes, but winning back congress is pretty much out of the question.

[GOP = Terrorists]

If 60 people go down with Abramoff, Ney, and Delay than Dems will have a significant majority of seats.

[Gustaf]

If 60 people go down with Abramoff, Ney, and Delay than Dems will have a significant majority of seats.

Err...why would these 60 people go down exactly? And gerrymandering makes it very hard to swing significant number of seats.

[GOP = Terrorists]

Err...why would these 60 people go down exactly? And gerrymandering makes it very hard to swing significant number of seats.

You have the worst of both worlds.  You have a very unpopular national government and a major scandal targeting the GOP Congress.

The low popularity of Bushco will have a net negative for GOP votes.  Further it will reduce the amount of level one candidates the GOP can field.  Plus scandal will cause there to be a significant number of previously GOP open seats which will eliminate the advantage of incumbency which will make the gerrymandering less effective.

Oh and I don't mean 60 people losing their seats.  I expect a pickup of 20-30 seats.  I mean 60 members of congress or staff of members of congress being strongly tied to abramoff.

[Brandon H]

We have a Republican scandal and people will vote Democrat. It's only a matter of time before we have a Democrat scandal. And the same people who keep putting people into office will keep wondering why there is always a scandal. I'm waiting for the scandal that involves both parties at the same time. Then what happens.

[opebo]

We have a Republican scandal and people will vote Democrat. It's only a matter of time before we have a Democrat scandal. And the same people who keep putting people into office will keep wondering why there is always a scandal. I'm waiting for the scandal that involves both parties at the same time. Then what happens.

You're unlikely to have a major Democratic scandal until they are back in control of something.  In their current condition they have no power whatsoever, and so are of little interest to the vote-buyers.

[minionofmidas]

49-36 "preferring a Dem Congress" means exactly: nothing. It certainly doesn't mean Dems might win a 13-point lead in the House election result.
Not to mention that there's some issues with the sample in this poll ... too young and too poor mostly.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Suggest everyone check the How to Righ a Poll thread in the General Politics board.

This poll is absurd.

The people at ISPOS should be ashamed (well, some of them are).

[MasterJedi]

This is likely to end up as classic voter behaviour; they're gonna want other people to vote in Democrats, not themselves because their Republican congressman is such a nice guy, really. And so on...

So very true… that said I can see the Dems winning anything from 8-10 house seats on a good night.

Democrats are very likely to make some gains, yes, but winning back congress is pretty much out of the question.

I agree with all this stated above