Rank NC, FL, GA from most to least likely to flip
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  Rank NC, FL, GA from most to least likely to flip
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Author Topic: Rank NC, FL, GA from most to least likely to flip  (Read 1367 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: November 15, 2019, 12:12:39 PM »

I’d say:

1. FL (Toss-up)
2. GA (Toss-up)

3. NC (Tilt R)

I could see GA before FL, though.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2019, 12:17:50 PM »

1. NC(Tilt R)
2. GA(Lean R)
3. FL(Lean R)
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2019, 12:19:34 PM »

1. GA (Tossup)
2. NC (Tilt R)
3. FL (Tilt R)
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Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸
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« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2019, 12:31:39 PM »
« Edited: November 15, 2019, 12:46:37 PM by Thunder98 »

1. GA (Pure Tossup)
2. FL (Pure Tossup)
3. NC (Tilt R)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2019, 12:45:06 PM »

FL, NC, and GA all can flip in a wave. PR statehood is on the ballot in a Prez election unlike in an R friendly midterm; whereas, voters like to keep taxes low in FL
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andjey
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« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2019, 12:46:35 PM »

1. NC
2. FL
3. GA
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2019, 12:47:34 PM »

GA
FL
NC

GA’s non-white electorate is growing and in a position to lurch it to the left of FL. Non-whites in FL backed Gillum 69-30 but in GA backed Abrams 85-14. GA also has a younger population and the people who have lived in GA less than 10 years backed Abrams 65-35.
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Orser67
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« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2019, 12:49:24 PM »

(Overall election: Lean D)
FL (Tilt D)
GA (Tilt R)
NC (Lean R)
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2019, 12:50:44 PM »







Well done, guys. First six replies and all six options mentioned.

Exactly what I was hoping would happen.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2019, 01:05:13 PM »

   

...which demonstrates how close those states will be to each other (OH is in that mix).
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Politician
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« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2019, 03:11:21 PM »

IA

FL
NC
GA

OH
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2019, 03:12:43 PM »

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SN2903
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« Reply #12 on: November 15, 2019, 03:14:31 PM »

1. NC
2. FL
3. GA
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538Electoral
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« Reply #13 on: November 15, 2019, 03:30:03 PM »

FL
NC
GA
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: November 15, 2019, 03:32:05 PM »

FL (Tilt R)
GA (Lean R)
NC (Lean R)

Though I do think the order is somewhat interchangeable.
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Lognog
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« Reply #15 on: November 15, 2019, 04:21:12 PM »


this
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #16 on: November 15, 2019, 04:24:19 PM »

GA (Tilt R)
FL (Tilt R)
NC (Tilt R)

I think GA is most likely to flip with decent campaigning and investment. Florida is most likely to be the closest state though, but is rather quite inelastic and in my belief harder to flip than Georgia. North Carolina meanwhile has the same problem as Florida, is trending harder leftwards than Florida, but is still to the right of Florida.

While i think the states will vote like this
FL
GA
NC

I think you can switch GA and FL because GA has a higher ceiling, as Democrats have not decently campaigned yet in any presidential election before and is trending hardest to the left.

It all depends on the candidate as well, and it could change tomorrow if i wanted it to be. They're that close. It's a good question. But if Biden isn't the candidate, neither are likely to flip, as i cannot see Buttigieg, Sanders or Warren any of the three states.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2019, 06:27:49 PM »

GA
FL
NC

I had a hard time deliberating between which was second/third, but ultimately I think a Presidential year turnout among minorities in Florida outweighs the state party’s incompetence
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: November 15, 2019, 09:04:51 PM »

All are lean R, but:

1. Florida.
2. North Carolina.
3. Georgia.
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Devils30
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« Reply #19 on: November 15, 2019, 09:08:15 PM »

FL
NC
GA

Midterm dropoff is worse for Dems in Florida with a heavy Hispanic population but also a big opportunity for 2020. Look at Miami-Dade county especially. NC and GA are trending Dem faster but I don't think Dems had any midterm dropoff in Georgia. Basically they need to get what Abrams did among 2018 voters and hope the new 2020 registrants push them over the top.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #20 on: November 15, 2019, 09:26:08 PM »

GA (Tilt R)
FL (Tilt R)
NC (Tilt R)

I think GA is most likely to flip with decent campaigning and investment. Florida is most likely to be the closest state though, but is rather quite inelastic and in my belief harder to flip than Georgia. North Carolina meanwhile has the same problem as Florida, is trending harder leftwards than Florida, but is still to the right of Florida.

While i think the states will vote like this
FL
GA
NC

I think you can switch GA and FL because GA has a higher ceiling, as Democrats have not decently campaigned yet in any presidential election before and is trending hardest to the left.

I basically agree with this.  GA is 1st because there is a meaningful chance it just goes VA 2008 and the Dem wins by a significant margin.  It's either staying Lean R for another cycle or moving straight to Lean D.  FL and NC are both Lean R where Dems need the stars to align to capture the last 2-3%, but Dems start in a deeper hole in NC even though it is more likely to trend toward them.  NC is the most likely of the 3 to have a big Trump margin.   
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2019, 09:26:27 PM »

My instinct says

1. North Carolina (Tossup)
2. Florida (Tossup)
3. Georgia (Tilt R)

But honestly I could see any order of those three being realistic
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #22 on: November 16, 2019, 10:07:14 AM »

FL
NC
GA
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DeSantis4Prez
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« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2019, 10:54:01 AM »

Unpopular opinion:

GA
FL
NC
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2019, 12:18:06 PM »

FL-> GA -> NC
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