Rank NC, FL, GA from most to least likely to flip

Storr
Junior Chimp

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Re: Rank NC, FL, GA from most to least likely to flip

« Reply #25 on: November 16, 2019, 12:53:18 PM »

FL
NC
GA

I'm simply going off of recent results: Florida voted for Obama twice, North Carolina voted for Obama in 2008, and Georgia never voted for Obama.

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Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar

Posts: 33,193

Re: Rank NC, FL, GA from most to least likely to flip

« Reply #26 on: November 16, 2019, 01:54:31 PM »

Quote from: Storr on November 16, 2019, 12:53:18 PM

FL
NC
GA

I'm simply going off of recent results: Florida voted for Obama twice, North Carolina voted for Obama in 2008, and Georgia never voted for Obama.

Obama didn't seriously invest in Georgia either time, and then Hillary did better than him with minimal investment.

NC voted for Obama, but has seemingly swung farther and farther right since despite the investment.

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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp

Posts: 6,708

Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

Re: Rank NC, FL, GA from most to least likely to flip

« Reply #27 on: November 16, 2019, 05:35:59 PM »

Quote from: L.D. Smith on November 16, 2019, 01:54:31 PM

Quote from: Storr on November 16, 2019, 12:53:18 PM

FL
NC
GA

I'm simply going off of recent results: Florida voted for Obama twice, North Carolina voted for Obama in 2008, and Georgia never voted for Obama.

On the other hand North Carolina actually has a Democratic governor who is generally considered to have an advantage going into 2020, unlike the frequent disappointments in GA and FL.

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TDAS04
Atlas Star

Posts: 23,538

Re: Rank NC, FL, GA from most to least likely to flip

« Reply #28 on: November 16, 2019, 06:22:04 PM »

Florida
Georgia
North Carolina

The 5th, 6th, and 7th most likely Trump states to flip, behind PA, AZ, MI, and WI. TX is 8th.

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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star

Posts: 21,106

Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

Re: Rank NC, FL, GA from most to least likely to flip

« Reply #29 on: November 16, 2019, 06:23:08 PM »

FL: ~40% chance (Tilt R)
NC: ~35% chance (Lean R)
GA: ~30% chance (Lean R)

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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp

Posts: 6,708

Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

Re: Rank NC, FL, GA from most to least likely to flip

« Reply #30 on: November 16, 2019, 06:51:14 PM »

Quote from: TDAS04 on November 16, 2019, 06:22:04 PM

Florida
Georgia
North Carolina

The 5th, 6th, and 7th most likely Trump states to flip, behind PA, AZ, MI, and WI. TX is 8th.

I'd say Texas flips after Iowa but before Ohio, based on Trump's approval ratings in each state

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LabourJersey
Sr. Member

Posts: 3,193

Re: Rank NC, FL, GA from most to least likely to flip

« Reply #31 on: November 17, 2019, 10:47:01 AM »

If North Carolina had a governor's or senator's race in 2018 we would be talking so differently about it. I don't see how people can focus on the demographic changes in GA and ignore such similar ones in NC.

So anyway:

1) NC

2) FL

3) GA (still too early to tip into the Dem column in 2020)

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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon

Posts: 15,283

Re: Rank NC, FL, GA from most to least likely to flip

« Reply #32 on: November 20, 2020, 11:22:05 PM »

Quote from: ON Progressive on November 15, 2019, 12:19:34 PM

1. GA (Tossup)
2. NC (Tilt R)
3. FL (Tilt R)

Well done. Tongue

No one else got it right.

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