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  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state (search mode)
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Author Topic: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state  (Read 736 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: November 15, 2019, 02:46:02 pm »

I had some time left during lunchbreak today, so I compared vote shares of Nixon in 1972 and Reagan 1984 by state. This map shows who received a higher share of votes in each state:
 


Red = Nixon in 1972 received a higher voter share than Reagan in 1984
Blue = Reagan in 1984 received a higher voter share than Nixon in 1972
 

In both 1972 and 1984 electoral votes, Tricky Dick wins comfortably. However, he won two percent more than Reagan in the national popular vote (60.7% vs. 58.8%).

Nebraska was extremely close, seperating both results by just 0.05% as Reagan received 70.55% and Nixon 70.50%.
 
Nixon's margins in the South were just insane. He cracked 70% in some of them. In Georgia, he won 75% of the vote and every county, but four years later Jimmy Carter won 66% of the vote and also every county. Reagan received 60% in 1984, while losing the state in 1980.

Interesting map. Massachusetts of course stands out, being the only state that Nixon lost, but so do Connecticut and New Hampshire. And I'm certainly aware of Nixon's stronger performance in the South. Nixon received 18% of the black vote in 1972, compared to Reagan's 9% in 1984; he won many Black Belt counties that Reagan did not. Nixon also received a higher share of the nationwide white vote (68%) as compared to Reagan (66%). He must have gotten well over 70% of whites in the South, given the state by state results, and probably got close to 90% of the white vote in Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Not surprised by Reagan's overperformance in the West either, a region where he did very well in both 1980 and 1984. McGovern only got in the twenties in Idaho and Utah, like Mondale, but Nixon was held back from the 70% mark in those states because of Schmitz (they were among his best states). Alaska is another example of this. Reagan got 66%, but Nixon "only" 58%, as Schmitz drew more than 7% of the vote, whereas Bergland got only around 3% there in 1984.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2019, 11:41:49 pm »

Michigan is somewhat of an oddity, as Reagan improved over Nixon by 3 full points (59.2% vs. 56.2%); Reagan bested Nixon in Kent, Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw, Ingham, Lapeer, St Clair, and Livingston Counties; Wayne and Genesee were the only major counties in which Reagan did worse than Nixon (which says a lot about population migration patterns in MI in the 1970s).

In WI, also colored blue, Reagan bested Nixon by less than 1%.

Why did Reagan do better than Nixon in Michigan? Particularly given that he ran behind Nixon throughout most of the remaining Midwest and Appalachia.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2019, 01:53:23 am »

What's really interestingis  how much California was lukewarm for Nixon at each time after 1952.

I mean:

1956: Lost a lot of votes to Kefauver, especially in The Valley, Eisenhower performed worse here
1960: Outright lost Election Night and needed the Late Vote to save him.
1962: Lost Gubernatorial
1968: Plurality win, literally carried over by LA County.
1972: Significantly less of the vote, whole state moved leftward of the nation first time since FDR.

Nixon got "only" 55% of the vote in California in 1972, beating McGovern by about 13%, as compared to his 23% margin of victory nationwide. California was one of McGovern's best states that year. California also voted marginally more Democratic than the national average in 1984, though Reagan did much better in the state than Nixon (beating Mondale by 17%). These were early indications of the state's eventual shift into Safe Democratic status.
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