Would Larry Hogan have won reelection in 2017 or 2019?

[MT Treasurer]

Suppose that MD was one of the states electing its state officials in odd-numbered years and that Hogan was elected in 2013 (or 2015)/up for reelection in 2017 (or 2019).

I would normally say no, but his margin does give me pause.

[Lechasseur]

Yes to both

[Gracile]

Late 2017 was a pretty dire period for the Republican party. Trump's unpopularity was at its highest level thus far coming off the heals of their attempt to repeal the ACA, the Charlottesville massacre, and the poor reception to the roll-out of the GOP tax bill. There was also a ton of Democratic enthusiasm, particularly in the highly-educated, suburban areas that Trump did poorly in 2016 (including the DC suburbs in MD). After being deprived of several high-profile election wins earlier in the year (most notably the GA-06 special), I think at the very least Democrats would have made a concerted effort to take down Hogan. If I had to guess, I'd say he probably would have lost. Hogan could have tried even harder to distance himself from Trump in order to win reelection, though that would create problems within his own party.

I think he would have had a much easier time this year than in 2017, though, and he probably would have won.

[Skill and Chance]

2019 Yes, 2017 Lean No

[Xing]

Yes in both years, but I highly doubt he would have won in the first place in 2013, and he might not have in 2015 either.

[Free Bird]

I don't really see why not.

[swf541]

Depends on the dem candidate, Jealous was a horrid nominee

[PragmaticPopulist]

Likely yes to both, although a good candidate might've made it competitive.

[Pericles]

Yes, could see it being by a larger margin or a bit closer but not a major change. The national environment has been pretty much the same since early 2017.

[538Electoral]

Yes.