TX. Gov. mock election

[Sam Spade]

Kinky. I think he's a lot like Ventura, except better with the press.

BTW, I think Gammage would stand a better chance in the election than Bell.

Gammage has skeletons in his closet, Bell is just an incompetant politician who inspires no one.  The Democrats best chance to win the race is probably old Felix Alvarado, who I know personally, and who couldn't win in local race in Fort Worth to save his life. 

I don't vote in Texas any more, but if I did, I would vote for Perry.  Let me give a few reasons:

First, Perry did an excellent job during the whole Rita/Katrina thing in 2005, which both sides have acknowledged (except for Strayhorn).  Leadership during crisis is something that is very important to me in a governor/president

Second, even though he hasn't been successful reforming the school budget (which must be done by June 2006), he's kept Texas in good fiscal condition on the whole, with balanced budgets the last couple of years and kept state spending under control.  He's not very charismatic, and he's slightly too conservative on social issues for me, but in my opinion he's competant and the same cannot be said for the other candidates.

As for the other candidates, let me lay out my qualms:

Bell is a boring politician, who has no appeal outside of the standard liberal Democrat white vote (not to minorities).  He was uninspiring as a Houston mayoral candidate in 2001, uninspiring when he ran for House in 2002, though the seat of Ken Bentsen fit him well and was really uninspiring when he got drawn out of his House seat in 2004.

Friedman is certainly entertaining, but way too liberal for me on social issues.  He has said that he will immediately issue a moratorium on death row and that's pretty much enough for him to lose my interest.

Strayhorn is also very entertaining, but has a history of doing pretty much anything to get elected.  As I had to point out before, she was in the late 1970s, early 1980s, a liberal Democrat mayor of Austin who supported the candidacy of Walter Mondale (for example). 

Then, in 1985, she was going to run in the primary against then-Gov. Mark White.  When she realized that she couldn't win in the Democrat primary, she switched parties and became a Republican, running against former Gov. Bill Clements, who won the primary and went on to beat White in the general election.  I simply don't trust her.

It's too familiar to what she's done this time around for me, personally. 

[Sam Spade]

I'm afraid these three candidates are going to split the anti-incumbent vote and hand the GOP a landslide, and the Democrats a total meltdown. The problem is that Friedman and Strayhorn don't have the long-term party organizations to make their victory meaningful. Their candidacies are only meaningful in the sense that they rob Bell of more votes than Perry.

Personally, I'd prefer a united opposition.

^^^^^^^^

This is the correct political answer, though as I've said before, Friedman leaving and Strayhorn staying will help the Democrat (whoever it is).  Vice versa helps Perry immensely and if both leave, you'll see a Perry 55%-45% win, because that's just where the state is right now on a base level.

Of course, the Democrats in Texas are already in total meltdown and have been for a while, so I don't know how a loss in the governor's race leaves them in greater meltdown. 

The Democrats' greatest potential victory in the state right now is defeating Tom DeLay, which would be a huge one (imo).  Another big one would be if the SC would overrule the redistricting map.  Strangely enough, if the SC overrules the redistricting map, Tom DeLay will win, since he would be in a much safer GOP district (by about 7%-8%), so I guess you can't have both.

However, if Lampson wins in the present (new) district, his chances of winning in 2008 are not going to be that great, because most likely there will be excellent Republican opposition (Fort Bend County has a strong Republican "backbench") in a Presidential election, with a CD that's still about 60%-40% Rep. on the whole.

Anyway, I'm getting off-topic here.  I agree with your comments. 

[Sam Spade]

Sam, what's the dirt on Gammage?

Strayhorn at this point, unless she promises to raise or hints at raising taxes. That is, if Perry's reelection chances are either uncomfortable or impossible. But if at the finish line it looks like Bell or even Friedman might pull it off and only Perry could stop them, I'd have to vote for the loser.

BTW, his management of the hurricane crisis was competent only compared to the banana republic under Blanco. The largest traffic jam in national history is not a ringing endorsement- my parents were in the car for 19 hours, and I've heard of 27 and higher. My Florida friends tell me this would never happen in their state. Barbour was the one truly impressive governor in the crisis- but then, he has friends in high places. And I was pleasantly surprised with Riley.

Let me address the second comment first. 

In my opinion of Perry handling the crisis, I was also referring to how Texas helped Louisiana with the whole Katrina thing.  Without Texas coming to bat and giving a place for the refugees to come to during the first few days.  That actually means a good bit to me and it defines why I gave higher marks to all officials in general (both state and local). 

About the only one who didn't receive good marks from me was Strayhorn, who used the opportunity to open her extremely large and candid mouth to play politics against the governor about using funds towards Katrina victims that the state might not be reimbursed by the feds and would lead to a state fiscal crisis.  You know how I feel about people who play politics on this forum with tragedies, so this should come as no surprise.

Anyway, with regards to the mass exodus, knowing Houston as well as I do, I am still and was then absolutely shocked that about half of the Region's population of 5 million people (plus probably about another 1 million illegals) was able to get out in about 72 hours time. 

There's basically no mass transportation, so roads are about the only way to go.  And considering rush hour in a good day on a Houston freeway is a pain in the ass, imagining it with ten times as much traffic on there is nearly impossible.  What happened there was obviously going to happen, regardless.

I know the whole Miami area is a crowded place also, but most of the time (esp. in summer) a lot of the Yankee transplants aren't there and I really don't think Miami has had to deal with a full-scale Cat 5 evacuation since Andrew.  Besides the population is still half of Houston metro.

Also, that area of Florida is helped by the fact that it is spread out all along the peninsula.  If a hurricane hits south of Miami proper, like Andrew did, Fort Lauderdale, etc. isn't going to get it too badly.  In Houston, if a hurricane hits at San Luis Pass or any point about 50 miles to east, the whole metro area is going to get it, badly.

Simply put, your Florida friends aren't giving you the correct comparison. 

Now to the first comment:

On Gammage, please look up materials in reference to the tobacco-settlement scandal that ensnagged Dan Morales back in the late 1990s when Gammage was on the Texas State Supreme Court.  There's a couple of good articles you can easily google up quickly.

[Sam Spade]

Sigh...Illegals are overwhelmingly included in Census Bureau figures...

Well, of course.  I was calculating the 5 million that 2000 census reports, plus the other 1 million that have come here since that census was done.