Rate IA-02 for 2020

[Lisa's voting Biden]

This district has a PVI of D+1. Currently represented by Democrat Dave Loebsack, IA-02 consists of Iowa's southeast and contains cities such as Davenport, Iowa City, and Muscatine. In 2012, Obama won this district by 13%. In 2016, Trump won this district by 4%.

Dave Loebsack has announced his retirement, so this will be an open seat for 2020. Democrat candidates include Rita Hart and Newman Abuissa. Republican candidates include Bobby Schilling and Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

Recent Results
2018: D +12.2
2016: D +7.5
2014: D +5.1
2012: D +13

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The House is Lean D, for now, Dems should hold most of their seats and net some more to get to 240 ish

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lean d if Bobby Schilling or someone gets the nomination. Tossup with Miller-Meeks and it might just be her year finally

[Xing]

Toss-Up, gun to my head I'd say Tilt R. This seat definitely makes me nervous.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R flip. I think Trump carries this seat by at least 5 points.

[coloradocowboi]

A lot of really weird takes on this once. Iowa City is a much better bulwark (esp. in a presidential year) than Dubuque against Republicans. Finkenauer will go down before this flips.

[PAK Man]

Lean D. The best Republicans can do is a perennial candidate and a carpetbagger from Illinois. Also, Fred Hubbell won the 2nd District, but of course that means Democrats are dead here. Keep in mind, Iowa was anti-Clinton, not pro-Trump. Democrats should do better without her on the ballot.

[😥]

Lean D

[ElectionsGuy]

Toss-Up/Tilt R, though that can easily change as its Iowa. Yes, Iowa City is a Dem bulwark but the rest of the district is pretty Republican.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Toss-Up/Tilt R, though that can easily change as its Iowa. Yes, Iowa City is a Dem bulwark but the rest of the district is pretty Republican.

No it's not. It's a D+1 seat lol.

[ElectionsGuy]

Toss-Up/Tilt R, though that can easily change as its Iowa. Yes, Iowa City is a Dem bulwark but the rest of the district is pretty Republican.

No it's not. It's a D+1 seat lol.

Yes, it is.

IA-02, excluding Johnson County

Trump: 165,340 (54.4%)
Clinton: 120,596 (39.7%)

I would say Trump winning the rest of the district by almost 15 is "pretty Republican".

[Frenchrepublican]

Voted tilt D, but Tossup would be more appropriate (you should offer this option)

[MT Treasurer]

Tossup/Tilt R, probably slightly less likely to flip than IA-01 but definitely more likely to flip than IA-03. I feel like this will be one of those seats everyone expects to stay Democratic but which ends up flipping because Republicans outperform expectations not just in Iowa but most Obama/Trump districts in general.

[BP🌹]

Toss-Up/Tilt R, though that can easily change as its Iowa. Yes, Iowa City is a Dem bulwark but the rest of the district is pretty Republican.

No it's not. It's a D+1 seat lol.

Yep. This district is more Democratic than CA-49.

[BP🌹]

Yep. This district is more Democratic than CA-49.

If we’re going by PVI and nothing else, TX-32 and GA-06 are far more Republican than ME-02 and NJ-02, which is obviously nonsense.

Precisely

[Gracile]

Tossup/Tilt R. As an open seat, this should be a prime pick-up opportunity for Republicans. If Trump wins this district again, then I think the Republican nominee will as well.

[Xing]

Toss-Up/Tilt R, though that can easily change as its Iowa. Yes, Iowa City is a Dem bulwark but the rest of the district is pretty Republican.

No it's not. It's a D+1 seat lol.

It really doesn’t make sense to use the 2012-2016 PVI to predict how districts will go in 2020. VA-10 is also D+1, and it’s not as likely to go Republican as IA-02.

[morgieb]

Pretty much as close to a Pure Toss-Up as possible. Iowa City does act as a bit of a bulwark against the Republicans but equally it makes the seat less elastic, perhaps. Forced to call, maybe Tilt R?