2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[Oryxslayer]

Indiana

Indiana’s redistricting has recently drawn discussion both with the retirement of Visclosky and the state’s newfound strong GOP lean. Perhaps most interesting is that Indiana is home to one of three states that have clear potential safe D seats that can be turned into GOP ones with a smart mapper. Indiana however is the most uncertain, whereas Missouri and Tennessee’s fate is far more linear.

Link to 2010 Atlas Discussion

Redistricting History

It’s hard to imagine that Indiana once had democratic legislative majorities. Indiana shares many similarities with her southern neighbors, and it’s always remarked that the state was settled northwards from the river. The democrats, like many a chamber back before Obama, could still win elections on increasingly red turf. In 2000 the state house was Blue, the State senate had been red for decades, and the governor was O’Bannon (Dem). It was time for Indiana to lose a congressional seat and the dems new exactly how to propose a plan that gave them the maximum possible opportunity. The blood red suburbs were packed hard into two GOP seats, and then the rest of the state was divided up so that democrats could gain a delegation majority. It looks funny in hindsight but IN07 was drawn so as to maximize dem potential: Marion was still a pink county overall, and Dems could not be expected to win a fair Indianapolis square seat.

Indiana Congressional Districts from 2000 to 2010, map from Wikipedia

The results for the map from the Democratic drawer’s perspective were mixed but expected for a decade of ferment. From 2000 to 2006 the democrats lost seats, losing the South Bend IN02 in 2002 and the River-straddling IN09 in 2004. Indiana however was one of the democrats key target states in 2006. IN02 and IN09 flipped right back to blue and the bloody 8th joined on making Indiana’s delegation 5-4 D. All 5 held on in 2008 when Obama scored his shock win, permanently tainting all Indiana DRA data for years to come. Things however were far rosier for the Republicans than an Obama win and a 5-4 delegation presented. Mitch Daniels won reelection comfortably in 2008, the democrats elected had to ideologically bend away from the mainstream to appeal in their districts, and despite the fiscal collapse dems had failed to make notable gains in the state legislature. This all therefore came to a head in 2010 when the GOP swept the southern-aligned 8th and 9th into their fold, captured both chambers with stunning margins, and came 2% away from getting the 2nd as well. Indiana was back in her GOP home.

Indiana Congressional Districts since 2010, map from Wikipedia

Congressional redistricting in 2010 was a rather quiet affair, even though the GOP held all the leavers of power. The crazy stuff can at the state legislative level, there the GOP moved to use to their new rural advantages to lock in majorities for the next decade. Mitch Daniels said he wouldn’t sign off on anything too outlandish and the GOP legislators listened. Counties were kept mostly whole, but the lines still went out of their way to protect the incumbents. The suburban packs were unloaded into every possible GOP to distribute the red voters efficiently. The southern river counties that may vote conserva-dem were carved up, and nearby Bloomington was sunk. Donnelly’s 2010 win showed that the 2nd needed to be readjusted drastically, so the GOP pulled out some of the blue coastal counties and swapped them for red rurals. While this seat still voted for Obama, Donnelly would retire, go statewide, and in effect concede the district to a victorious Republican party.

Since 2011 Redistricting

There isn’t really much to say about Indiana because the GOP map was drawn to be uncompetitive. IN02 has remained a Democratic reach seat since their 2012 loss, but they never have been able to crack the code. The republicans knew what they were doing with Walorski’s eventual district. When Young moved to run for senate in 2016, his replacement was carpetbagger “Tennessee” Trey Hollingsworth. The man carpet-bombed the seat with personal wealth and won the GOP primary. Since then Trey has been a consistent underperformer, but not by as much to give the Democrats a serious opening. The most interesting case has perhaps been IN05, which was last decade a GOP pack. The legislature removed some of its more rural bits to buttress other seats, and gave in (at the time) the wealthy red northern Marion communities. Well, those flipped blue, Hamilton zoomed left, and now the seat is competitive. Donnelley carried the seat in 2018, even in defeat, and Brooks’s retirement gives the Democrats an opening. With redistricting next cycle though, this opening in the 5th is likely to disappear just as fast as it appeared.

2021

How far is the GOP willing to go in 2021? The map can change a lot, or a little, depending on the desires of those in control. Just like in Ohio, the 2010 mappers had a cadre that were all in favor of cracking their big city, but these opinions were wisely sidelined.

The first, most obvious decisions that are going to occur no matter what happens is the reinforcement of 5 and 9. To make both of them absolutely safe, red rurals need to be grabbed and bluer bits like Bloomington and northern Indianapolis will be dropped at least in part. If the dems pick up the 5th the GOP will probably be more aggressive in their reclamation efforts than if the Republicans hold the seat. Ironically, returning the 9th to a Riverside seat might make it safer R whereas in 2000 it was swing.

2020 Least Change style plan in regards to the Lakeshore, overall D+8 CPVI presently

With that out of the way, all eyes turn towards the shrinking IN01. Three broad stroked potential plans exist in regards to the lakeshore seat. The first plan is to leave the district rather similar to what exists now, taking in Lake, Porter, and as much of LaPorte as possible. This style of plan makes the most sense on a ‘least change’ style map, or one that continues to leave counties mostly whole. After all, reinforcing 5 and 9 can be done without carving counties to bits. The second plan fortifies the entire region by transforming the 1st into a ‘snake-by-the-lake’ that goes into South Bend. Such a plan is prefaced on the assumption that Walorski would be fine dropping the city as long as she keeps the suburbs. The advantages of this plan are that the first gets bluer and drops the red rural towns and marginal suburbs. This packs all the areas in the region that still could get more blue into one seat, allowing her neighbors to fortify the 5th far easier. I have also noted that this could give an outlet for the ambitious South Bend democratic community, who currently lack said outlet and end up, I don’t know, running for president.

2020 'Snake-by-the-Lake' Style Plan, overall D+13 CPVI presently

The final plan is to carve up the 1st and produce and new, 8-1 map. The first is shrinking, in large part thanks to Gary’s continuing desire to be the King of the dead Post-Industrial cities. Through cleaver lines the GOP can carve up the region into 3 or 4 red districts, and nobody would be too sad since IN01 is getting a new rep next year.  There are downsides to this of course, communities of interest and incumbent desires will have to go out the window in favor of partisanship. Speaking of incumbent desires, nobody on the GOP side may even want to have Gary in their seat and just prefer to leave the 1st as a proverbial ‘toxic waste dump’ for minority and poor democrats.

What’s left to decide

Whomever replaces Visclosky in IN01 and Brooks in IN05 are no real concern to those who will hold the pen in 2021. IN01’s fate rests in others hands, not that of it’s potential incumbent. IN05, no matter if it elects a democrat or republican, is going to drop its slice of the city and pick up redder and redder turf. If the seat does elect a dem then maybe the Republicans will be more aggressive in drawing away the blue parts than if the GOP keeps the seat red.

Instead, the big question is whether or not the Presidential majority is just as large in 2020 as it was in 2016. Such a test of partisanship would probably decide whether or not carving up the first is even safely possible. Now, why would trump do worse in a midwestern WWC state? Well, when you are running not as the incumbent, you get a home-state boost in your VP’s home state. This has been proven statistically again and again, thought the boost is usually no more than 2%. Such a boost dissipates somewhat when running for reelection. There is also the outside possibilities surrounding the executive branch that could potentially remake Indiana’s 2020 stability. If Trump dumps Pence for, I don’t know, Haley, there will be a backlash in turnout in the Hoosier state. Such a move won’t flip Indiana evangelicals to Democrats, but may convince them to sit this one out. There also exists the possibility that Trump gets removed from office. In such a scenario it would be President Pence who is running for reelection, and would likely carry Indiana with a larger majority than in 2016. Such numbers would likely be  just as useful as Obama’s ’08 numbers in determining Indiana’s baseline partisanship, but a Hoosier landslide would give Republican mappers more wiggle room to flex their redistricting muscles. Then there's the chance of Buttegieg getting the Dem nomination and giving Indiana a Dem home-state effect....

[Idaho Conservative]

3 Potential maps:
7R-2D Incumbent protection map. Every R district is at least R+14.  https://davesredistricting.org/join/af569b09-a05a-4fae-bfe6-d5307c7f82d2

8R-1D Indianapolis to Lake County Pack.  Every R district is at least R+11. (best bet for the GOP) https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff97355d-01d9-4dc1-8f18-f9ace6dcf929

8R-1D Crack Lake County.  Every R district is at least R+8. (some dummymander risk) https://davesredistricting.org/join/bdea785e-cc11-4720-b27f-5155dbd86090

[TML]

This is a state where it appears to be possible to make all 9 districts strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#GOP

Does anyone think this map could come to pass?

[Oryxslayer]

This is a state where it appears to be possible to make all 9 districts strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#GOP

Does anyone think this map could come to pass?

Nope, because the trends are clear on every level in Indianapolis. They just have to look at Ohio who tried this in 2000 and got burned, and that was before Colombia became a Sapphire. Like I said above, Pence gave Trump his VP bounce here, which masks a slightly more Dem baseline in regards to PVI, which 538 used exclusively.

[Idaho Conservative]

This is a state where it appears to be possible to make all 9 districts strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#GOP

Does anyone think this map could come to pass?

Nope, because the trends are clear on every level in Indianapolis. They just have to look at Ohio who tried this in 2000 and got burned, and that was before Colombia became a Sapphire. Like I said above, Pence gave Trump his VP bounce here, which masks a slightly more Dem baseline in regards to PVI, which 538 used exclusively.

True, but an 8-1 map is quite feasible.  Like I drew.

[Brittain33]

This is a state where it appears to be possible to make all 9 districts strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#GOP

Does anyone think this map could come to pass?

Nope, because the trends are clear on every level in Indianapolis. They just have to look at Ohio who tried this in 2000 and got burned, and that was before Colombia became a Sapphire. Like I said above, Pence gave Trump his VP bounce here, which masks a slightly more Dem baseline in regards to PVI, which 538 used exclusively.

True, but an 8-1 map is quite feasible.  Like I drew.

The most common response (is it on this thread too?) is that Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to deal with Lake County or Gary and leave them their own district.

If Indiana had to lose a district, they might feel differently.

[Idaho Conservative]

This is a state where it appears to be possible to make all 9 districts strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#GOP

Does anyone think this map could come to pass?

Nope, because the trends are clear on every level in Indianapolis. They just have to look at Ohio who tried this in 2000 and got burned, and that was before Colombia became a Sapphire. Like I said above, Pence gave Trump his VP bounce here, which masks a slightly more Dem baseline in regards to PVI, which 538 used exclusively.

True, but an 8-1 map is quite feasible.  Like I drew.

The most common response (is it on this thread too?) is that Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to deal with Lake County or Gary and leave them their own district.

If Indiana had to lose a district, they might feel differently.

Well I packed the most dem portions of lake, but it's true that concerns are more than just about the partisan makeup of the delegation, also wishes of congress members. But on my map, Lake is only split 2 ways, between IN-1  (now r+11) and IN-7 (now D+25).  No incumbent R would be forced to run in Lake County.  Just a new R candidate for a newly republican seat. https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff97355d-01d9-4dc1-8f18-f9ace6dcf929

[Tintrlvr]

This is a state where it appears to be possible to make all 9 districts strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#GOP

Does anyone think this map could come to pass?

Nope, because the trends are clear on every level in Indianapolis. They just have to look at Ohio who tried this in 2000 and got burned, and that was before Colombia became a Sapphire. Like I said above, Pence gave Trump his VP bounce here, which masks a slightly more Dem baseline in regards to PVI, which 538 used exclusively.

True, but an 8-1 map is quite feasible.  Like I drew.

The most common response (is it on this thread too?) is that Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to deal with Lake County or Gary and leave them their own district.

If Indiana had to lose a district, they might feel differently.

Well I packed the most dem portions of lake, but it's true that concerns are more than just about the partisan makeup of the delegation, also wishes of congress members. But on my map, Lake is only split 2 ways, between IN-1  (now r+11) and IN-7 (now D+25).  No incumbent R would be forced to run in Lake County.  Just a new R candidate for a newly republican seat. https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff97355d-01d9-4dc1-8f18-f9ace6dcf929

I think this map might be vulnerable to challenge on VRA grounds for over-packing black voters.

[Idaho Conservative]

This is a state where it appears to be possible to make all 9 districts strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#GOP

Does anyone think this map could come to pass?

Nope, because the trends are clear on every level in Indianapolis. They just have to look at Ohio who tried this in 2000 and got burned, and that was before Colombia became a Sapphire. Like I said above, Pence gave Trump his VP bounce here, which masks a slightly more Dem baseline in regards to PVI, which 538 used exclusively.

True, but an 8-1 map is quite feasible.  Like I drew.

The most common response (is it on this thread too?) is that Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to deal with Lake County or Gary and leave them their own district.

If Indiana had to lose a district, they might feel differently.

Well I packed the most dem portions of lake, but it's true that concerns are more than just about the partisan makeup of the delegation, also wishes of congress members. But on my map, Lake is only split 2 ways, between IN-1  (now r+11) and IN-7 (now D+25).  No incumbent R would be forced to run in Lake County.  Just a new R candidate for a newly republican seat. https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff97355d-01d9-4dc1-8f18-f9ace6dcf929

I think this map might be vulnerable to challenge on VRA grounds for over-packing black voters.

My Dem pack is only 40% black tho.  R's would just have to be clear it was done for partisan reasons, not racial.  Also, while the federal courts won't throw out all the requirements for vra districts, more conservative courts will be more likely to uphold districts like these which don't eliminate black districts.  Packing is easier to justify than cracking.  R's won't get away with destroying AL-7 or TX-34, but conservative judges might allow them to get away with higher minority percentages.

[MaxQue]

This is a state where it appears to be possible to make all 9 districts strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#GOP

Does anyone think this map could come to pass?

Nope, because the trends are clear on every level in Indianapolis. They just have to look at Ohio who tried this in 2000 and got burned, and that was before Colombia became a Sapphire. Like I said above, Pence gave Trump his VP bounce here, which masks a slightly more Dem baseline in regards to PVI, which 538 used exclusively.

True, but an 8-1 map is quite feasible.  Like I drew.

The most common response (is it on this thread too?) is that Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to deal with Lake County or Gary and leave them their own district.

If Indiana had to lose a district, they might feel differently.

Well I packed the most dem portions of lake, but it's true that concerns are more than just about the partisan makeup of the delegation, also wishes of congress members. But on my map, Lake is only split 2 ways, between IN-1  (now r+11) and IN-7 (now D+25).  No incumbent R would be forced to run in Lake County.  Just a new R candidate for a newly republican seat. https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff97355d-01d9-4dc1-8f18-f9ace6dcf929

I think this map might be vulnerable to challenge on VRA grounds for over-packing black voters.

My Dem pack is only 40% black tho.  R's would just have to be clear it was done for partisan reasons, not racial.  Also, while the federal courts won't throw out all the requirements for vra districts, more conservative courts will be more likely to uphold districts like these which don't eliminate black districts.  Packing is easier to justify than cracking.  R's won't get away with destroying AL-7 or TX-34, but conservative judges might allow them to get away with higher minority percentages.

The thing is, it's likely some parties will prefer to play it safer for fear of getting their map stuck down and have a court draw a map that's quite unfavourable to them.

[Idaho Conservative]

This is a state where it appears to be possible to make all 9 districts strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#GOP

Does anyone think this map could come to pass?

Nope, because the trends are clear on every level in Indianapolis. They just have to look at Ohio who tried this in 2000 and got burned, and that was before Colombia became a Sapphire. Like I said above, Pence gave Trump his VP bounce here, which masks a slightly more Dem baseline in regards to PVI, which 538 used exclusively.

True, but an 8-1 map is quite feasible.  Like I drew.

The most common response (is it on this thread too?) is that Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to deal with Lake County or Gary and leave them their own district.

If Indiana had to lose a district, they might feel differently.

Well I packed the most dem portions of lake, but it's true that concerns are more than just about the partisan makeup of the delegation, also wishes of congress members. But on my map, Lake is only split 2 ways, between IN-1  (now r+11) and IN-7 (now D+25).  No incumbent R would be forced to run in Lake County.  Just a new R candidate for a newly republican seat. https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff97355d-01d9-4dc1-8f18-f9ace6dcf929

I think this map might be vulnerable to challenge on VRA grounds for over-packing black voters.

My Dem pack is only 40% black tho.  R's would just have to be clear it was done for partisan reasons, not racial.  Also, while the federal courts won't throw out all the requirements for vra districts, more conservative courts will be more likely to uphold districts like these which don't eliminate black districts.  Packing is easier to justify than cracking.  R's won't get away with destroying AL-7 or TX-34, but conservative judges might allow them to get away with higher minority percentages.

The thing is, it's likely some parties will prefer to play it safer for fear of getting their map stuck down and have a court draw a map that's quite unfavourable to them.

Then the legislature could redraw it to meet the court criteria.

[lfromnj]

This is a state where it appears to be possible to make all 9 districts strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#GOP

Does anyone think this map could come to pass?

Nope, because the trends are clear on every level in Indianapolis. They just have to look at Ohio who tried this in 2000 and got burned, and that was before Colombia became a Sapphire. Like I said above, Pence gave Trump his VP bounce here, which masks a slightly more Dem baseline in regards to PVI, which 538 used exclusively.

True, but an 8-1 map is quite feasible.  Like I drew.

The most common response (is it on this thread too?) is that Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to deal with Lake County or Gary and leave them their own district.

If Indiana had to lose a district, they might feel differently.

Well I packed the most dem portions of lake, but it's true that concerns are more than just about the partisan makeup of the delegation, also wishes of congress members. But on my map, Lake is only split 2 ways, between IN-1  (now r+11) and IN-7 (now D+25).  No incumbent R would be forced to run in Lake County.  Just a new R candidate for a newly republican seat. https://davesredistricting.org/join/ff97355d-01d9-4dc1-8f18-f9ace6dcf929

I think this map might be vulnerable to challenge on VRA grounds for over-packing black voters.

My Dem pack is only 40% black tho.  R's would just have to be clear it was done for partisan reasons, not racial.  Also, while the federal courts won't throw out all the requirements for vra districts, more conservative courts will be more likely to uphold districts like these which don't eliminate black districts.  Packing is easier to justify than cracking.  R's won't get away with destroying AL-7 or TX-34, but conservative judges might allow them to get away with higher minority percentages.

The thing is, it's likely some parties will prefer to play it safer for fear of getting their map stuck down and have a court draw a map that's quite unfavourable to them.

There's literally no reason for the GOP to not try a 8 1 in Indiana. At worst it reverts back to a 7 2.

[Brittain33]

There's literally no reason for the GOP to not try a 8 1 in Indiana. At worst it reverts back to a 7 2.

That's a pretty strong statement. As mentioned earlier, many Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to represent Lake County, and you don't have to oppose gerrymandering to find a Gary-Indianapolis district revolting and a step too far to actually create.

[lfromnj]

There's literally no reason for the GOP to not try a 8 1 in Indiana. At worst it reverts back to a 7 2.

That's a pretty strong statement. As mentioned earlier, many Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to represent Lake County, and you don't have to oppose gerrymandering to find a Gary-Indianapolis district revolting and a step too far to actually create.

Refusing to draw that Gary indy district while the Ds draw a carbondale  to Champaign district in Illinois would just never happen.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's literally no reason for the GOP to not try a 8 1 in Indiana. At worst it reverts back to a 7 2.

That's a pretty strong statement. As mentioned earlier, many Republican congressmen would prefer not to have to represent Lake County, and you don't have to oppose gerrymandering to find a Gary-Indianapolis district revolting and a step too far to actually create.

We might even see GOP efforts to pack IN-01 as much as possible while only splitting one county (Definitely not Lake).

[Sol]

Although I hope that the IN GOP doesn't draw out the 1st, I think it's maybe wishful thinking to imagine that they'd sacrifice a seat just because having Gary in the seat of a Republican would be so undesirable. Republicans did similar things to Lansing and Columbus, for example. And Jim Baird is pretty new in Congress and can probably be f[inks]ed around with.

Probably the biggest obstacle to destroying the 1st honestly is the general historical swinginess of Indiana. Although it is definitely a right-wing state voters here are still more persuadable than in Kentucky or Tennessee, and it was only a little over 10 years ago that Obama won the state. Coalitions inevitably realign and Midwesterners tend to be swing voters. Whether or not that awareness is enough to stop the cracking of the 1st, idk. But I wouldn't want to do it if I were an Indiana Republican.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... I would say it's about 50/50 whether they draw 8R/1D.  TN is probably 75/25 in favor of drawing out Cooper and KY 25/75 against trying to draw out Yarmuth due to the state courts there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hmmm... I would say it's about 50/50 whether they draw 8R/1D.  TN is probably 75/25 in favor of drawing out Cooper and KY 25/75 against trying to draw out Yarmuth due to the state courts there.

KY is really 0/100 due to the nature of the state constitution, which obliges the creation of a district entirely in Louisville should the numbers exist for it.

[Idaho Conservative]

Although I hope that the IN GOP doesn't draw out the 1st, I think it's maybe wishful thinking to imagine that they'd sacrifice a seat just because having Gary in the seat of a Republican would be so undesirable. Republicans did similar things to Lansing and Columbus, for example. And Jim Baird is pretty new in Congress and can probably be f[inks]ed around with.

Probably the biggest obstacle to destroying the 1st honestly is the general historical swinginess of Indiana. Although it is definitely a right-wing state voters here are still more persuadable than in Kentucky or Tennessee, and it was only a little over 10 years ago that Obama won the state. Coalitions inevitably realign and Midwesterners tend to be swing voters. Whether or not that awareness is enough to stop the cracking of the 1st, idk. But I wouldn't want to do it if I were an Indiana Republican.

It's possible to draw a map where Lake County is only split 2 ways, half in the Indianapolis district and half in the new r+10 IN-1.  So no current gop incumbent would have to represent it.

[Idaho Conservative]

Hmmm... I would say it's about 50/50 whether they draw 8R/1D.  TN is probably 75/25 in favor of drawing out Cooper and KY 25/75 against trying to draw out Yarmuth due to the state courts there.

KY is really 0/100 due to the nature of the state constitution, which obliges the creation of a district entirely in Louisville should the numbers exist for it.

Do they have the votes to amend the state constitution?

[Nyvin]

Hmmm... I would say it's about 50/50 whether they draw 8R/1D.  TN is probably 75/25 in favor of drawing out Cooper and KY 25/75 against trying to draw out Yarmuth due to the state courts there.

KY is really 0/100 due to the nature of the state constitution, which obliges the creation of a district entirely in Louisville should the numbers exist for it.

Do they have the votes to amend the state constitution?

Yes, barely in the State House, easily in the Senate (it's 60% in each chamber).

But all that would do is put it on as a ballot question in the next legislative election (Nov 2020).

[Idaho Conservative]

Hmmm... I would say it's about 50/50 whether they draw 8R/1D.  TN is probably 75/25 in favor of drawing out Cooper and KY 25/75 against trying to draw out Yarmuth due to the state courts there.

KY is really 0/100 due to the nature of the state constitution, which obliges the creation of a district entirely in Louisville should the numbers exist for it.

Do they have the votes to amend the state constitution?

Yes, barely in the State House, easily in the Senate (it's 60% in each chamber).

But all that would do is put it on as a ballot question in the next legislative election (Nov 2020).

darn

[Tekken_Guy]

This is a state where it appears to be possible to make all 9 districts strongly R-leaning:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/indiana/#GOP

Does anyone think this map could come to pass?

Nope, because the trends are clear on every level in Indianapolis. They just have to look at Ohio who tried this in 2000 and got burned, and that was before Colombia became a Sapphire. Like I said above, Pence gave Trump his VP bounce here, which masks a slightly more Dem baseline in regards to PVI, which 538 used exclusively.

Not really. Indiana’s partisanship is pretty much always identical to Missouri’s, and 2016 was no exception. Honestly, once the 2016 results come in to DRA we can see the effectiveness of the dummymander more efficiently.

[KelseyKauffman]

Is anyone on this thread interested in Indiana local government redistricting?  In 2013, my students and I created a website showing that nearly all county councils were out of compliance. (I've not been on this site long enough to post links but you can find it at indianalocalredistricting dot com/counties)
The same was true for most school boards with single member electoral districts

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is anyone on this thread interested in Indiana local government redistricting?  In 2013, my students and I created a website showing that nearly all county councils were out of compliance. (I've not been on this site long enough to post links but you can find it at indianalocalredistricting dot com/counties)
The same was true for most school boards with single member electoral districts

Welcome to the forum!
Yes I would be up for that.